In Algeria, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's honeymoon period won't survive the end of Ramadan this weekend. Expect a tough military-led Islamist campaign early in the year, then subsequent reprisals against civilians. The key indicator for Algerians is the level of political violence. The dramatic fall in terror attacks last year explains why so many Algerians changed their minds about 'Boutef'. Unexpectedly, he appeared to be breaking free of the generals' grip and capable of taking real political initiatives. Algiers, at least, almost returned to the pre-terror days; business confidence mounted.
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