The soldiers wait in the wings

BLUE LINES

Close

THE INSIDE VIEW

The notoriously fickle international opinion barometer has moved back into Afro-pessimism after a lengthy stint last year in the Afro-optimism zone. In fact, the key economic indicators in most African states are little changed from a year ago, when heady talk about the African boom was at its height: the African oil and gas bonanza; manic growth in Asian trade and investment; African GDP growth 2-3% ahead of world averages. And the credit crunch is yet to work through into Africa. It is the political perceptions that have changed. The basic elements of the current crises were all evident a year ago: Kenya was preparing for a nasty election with both parties exploiting ethnic sentiment; Nigeria was about to hold a deeply flawed election; momentum was building behind Jacob Zuma’s populist campaign for the Presidency in South Africa, as power experts warned the government of crippling electricity shortages; and the Sudanese regime continued ethnic cleansing in Darfur. But many of the business brains didn’t see it coming. They had convinced themselves that Kenyans were happy with their government’s economic management, that Nigerians felt pride in their country’s US$50 billion forex reserves and that South Africans shared Western admiration for Thabo Mbeki’s pro-market economic strategy. They were wrong and this may be the year when ignoring the politics gets too expensive – even for the sovereign wealth funds.