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Yar'Adua goes into extra time

The reappearance of the President has worsened the political paralysis – and the splits in the PDP government

On 3 March, the state governors decided to block a vote that could have set in motion President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s enforced resignation on medical ...

NIGERIA

On her Majesty's Secret Service

Wits in Abuja have taken to referring to First Lady Turai Yar’Adua as ‘Her Majesty’ and her coterie of apparatchiks as t...

SOUTH AFRICA

Tightening the welfare belt

A centrist budget annoys the people who got the President elected and leaves some economic questions unanswered

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

South African President Jacob Zuma has been accused of kowtowing to President Robert Mugabe in his attempts on 4 March to persuade British Premier Gordon Brown to lobby for the lifting of European Union sanctions on Zimbabwe. In fact, Zuma is searching for leverage with Mugabe, suggesting that sanctions could be quickly reimposed if pledges are not kept. Zuma’s team of advisors on Zimbabwe – foreign policy specialist Lindiwe Zulu, ANC veteran Mac Maharaj and former Home Affairs Minister Charles Nqaqula – have made some headway in negotiations on political and security issues despite reports of hardline ZANU-PF elements stepping up attacks. Many sanctions on Zimbabwe are, though, under review: its voting rights at the IMF have been restored. The IMF and the World Bank are working on a plan to tackle its arrears and speed up disbursement for the short term recovery programme – despite the United States’ and Britain’s veto on loans. That too may change after some diplomatic clodhopping. Last year, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said that it was up to the MDC to decide when sanctions were lifted. Since then, Premier Morgan Tsvangirai has written to EU leaders calling for a general review of sanctions and Finance Minister Tendai Biti has asked the EU to lift sanctions on eight specific companies; it quickly complied. However, the last set of sanctions – the targeting of ZANU-PF officials and their business friends – is likely to stand for many months yet.

SOUTH AFRICA

Small print, big figures

In October, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan hinted at big economic changes. The South African Reserve Bank’s inflation strategy would be amended, the 3-6% target range for official inflation would be widened and the SARB’s primary duty to protect the value of the currency would be relaxed. Gordhan and Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus held long discussions and the outcome is that those changes will not take place. In his budget speech on 17 February, Gordhan insisted that long-term improvements in international competitiveness can come only from ‘lower wage-inflation, lower budget deficits, larger reserves and a more flexible and dynamic productive sector.’ South Africa’s inflation rate is higher than that of its main trading partners. So Gordhan reaffirmed both the 3-6% target and the Bank’s independent duty to manage consumer-price inflation after watching growth, employment, asset-price inflation, financial-sector stability and exchange-rate competitiveness.

GHANA

Oil and optimism

In a year’s time Ghana should be producing 150,000 barrels of oil a day and its economy should be growing at well over 10% a year (AC Vol 50 No 25 & Vol 51 No 1). Its party political barracking might even have become more constructive and less personalised. That at least is the hope of President John Evans Atta Mills, the tax law specialist-turned-politician who is battling to use oil revenue to finance an industrialisation programme.

GHANA

Burning passions

A bizarre series of fires at government buildings has led to a whispering campaign reminiscent of the spate of brutal murders before the 2000 election campaign, which Flight Lieutenant (Retired) Jerry Rawlings had claimed were organised to damage the then National Democratic Congress (NDC) government.

CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE

Sassou's reforms on trial

The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative’s determination to tackle corruption in Congo-Brazzaville will be tested on 9 March. EITI directors will meet to consider upgrading their verdict on the country, from its current ‘candidate’ status to ‘compliant’, which means it would be judged to have substantially improved the accountability of state finances. If the directors fail to give President Denis Sassou-Nguesso’s government the green light and raise yet more doubts about accounting in the state oil company, then they will also be questioning the judgement of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

CONGO-KINSHASA

Kabila's new slim-look cabinet

It was supposed to be a reshuffle for austerity, in preparation for next year’s elections, and the government’s heavyweights hold on to their jobs, notably Alexis Thambwé Mwamba (Foreign Affairs) and Charles Mwando Nsimba (Defence). It was also supposed to mark a cleanup, to keep the donors lending (AC Vol 51 No 2). Yet President Joseph Kabila’s latest government changes could prove a disappointment on both counts. They may not advance the cause of peace in the troubled Kivu provinces, either.

CONGO-KINSHASA

Hush hush money

Prime Minister Adolphe Muzito would like to hush up a report from the Economic and Financial Commission (Ecofin) of the National Assembly, which urges the government to manage Congo’s oil records better. The report should have been debated in a special 15 January to 15 February parliamentary session, but Assembly President Evariste Boshab chose to keep it under wraps, so protecting Muzito and others from public criticism.

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

Another temporary fix

Once again, President Laurent Gbagbo has driven democratisation off the rails. On 12 February, he used Article 48 of the Constitution, which allows him to take exceptional measures when the state’s institutions are threatened, to dissolve both the government and the Commission Electorale Indépendante (CEI), saying it was not independent enough. Elections, once due in December, then postponed to February or March, are put off yet again, for the sixth time (AC Vol 51 No 1). Late April or early May are now talked of. Yet Gbagbo’s term in office officially expired in 2005.

ERITREA | SOMALIA

Target Asmara

A new United Nations investigation, still under wraps but seen by Africa Confidential, will lead to further quarrels in the UN Security Council over what to do about Eritrea’s troublesome regime. In December, Britain and the United States, backed by Uganda, pushed through the UNSC limited sanctions on arms sales to Asmara and laid the groundwork for sanctions against some of its officials. This was a response to Eritrea’s apparent support for the Islamist militias fighting the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Mogadishu.

SUDAN

Doubts over Darfur

The latest Darfur peace deal announced on 23 February meets the strategic aims of the ruling National Congress Party (aka National Islamic Front, NIF): to consolidate a fragmented Islamist movement; to contain the Chad and Darfur conflicts so as to focus on the South; and to reinforce the NCP’s position, both at home and abroad, before next month’s national elections. The signatories to the deal are the NCP and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), widely seen as Islamist; none of the secular Darfur groups have signed up so far.

NIGER

A coup to stop a coup

So far, Niamey’s new military leaders have played by the new-model putschists’ book. They ousted controversial President Mamadou Tandja on 18 February, then promised a rapid restoration of democracy and on 23 February appointed a civilian prime minister, Mahamadou Danda. Five days later, the new head of state, Salou Djibou, announced that no member of the ruling Conseil Suprême pour la Restauration de la Démocratie (CSRD) or the transitional government would stand in the coming presidential election.

NIGER

Who's who in the Nigerien coup

Salou Djibou, commander of the main armoured unit in Niamey, led the assault on the Presidency which culminated in the capture of President Mamadou Tandja and his ministers on 18 February. He is now President of the Conseil Suprême pour la Restauration de la Démocratie (CSRD,) and on 28 February he broadcast his promise that no member of the junta would stand for the presidency.

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

NAMIBIA

Uranium battleground

The race to develop new uranium mines in the central Namib Desert is led by France’s nuclear giant Areva, pursued by smaller Australian and Canadian exploration companies. Areva plans to bring Namibia’s third uranium mine, Trekkopje, into production next year, behind schedule because of difficulties with new technology for processing very low-grade ore. Australia’s Extract Resources and Bannerman Resources are planning large mines at their Rossing South and Etango projects in adjoining licence areas.

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Africa Confidential In The News

Reuters, 16 January 2012
UPDATE 1-Nigeria: will it fall apart or can it hold?
[Goodluck Jonathan is] "eerily calm considering we could be weeks away from a major confrontation," said Africa Confidential editor Patrick Smith. "The absolute failure ... to wheel on southerners and northerners at the same time to say this is a national crisis and we have to pull together, is striking."

BBC Newshour, 14 January 2012
Suicide bomb kills Basra pilgrims; elections in Taiwan; and special focus on Nigeria
Africa Confidential's editor Patrick Smith speaks to Julian Marshall in the special focus on Nigeria.

BBC Newsnight, 24 August 2011
Risk Islamists will move in to fill Libya power vacuum
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi claimed that if he was ousted from power Islamist radicals would seize control of Libya. Patrick Smith speaks to Newsnight's Robin Denselow about whether he is likely to be proven right or wrong.

BBC, 16 August 2011
Solomon Mujuru: Obituary of a Zimbabwean 'king-maker'
"He had all the mystique of a liberation war hero that has served him to present-day politics," Patrick Smith, editor of the London-based Africa Confidential magazine, told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme.

TIME Magazine, 1 June 2011
Death, Prison or Exile: Gaddafi Is Out of Options
"My understanding is that they would be delighted if he did a duck," Smith says.