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The International Criminal Court is to probe election violence and may put some leading politicians and business people on trial for crimes against humanity

KENYA

A dangerous compromise

NIGERIA

Jonathan and the securocrats

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

A report explaining how Africa has lost more than US$850 billion between 1970 and 2008 in illicit financial flows – mainly through corporate tax evasion, trade mispricing and overpriced supply contracts – suggests that long-standing debates over the merits of foreign aid are wrongly directed. Illicit outflows from Africa, orchestrated by international companies and corrupt officials, have run at well over double the levels of foreign aid sent to Africa from rich countries, according to the report from Washington-based Global Financial Integrity. The authors, including former IMF economist Dev Kar, suggest Africa’s illicit outflows from 1970 to 2008 could total as much as $1.8 trillion if transfer pricing schemes and mispricing of the trade in services with Africa are taken into account. Africa’s biggest economies were worst hit: Nigeria was reckoned to have lost $89.5 bn., Egypt $70 bn., Algeria $25.7 bn., Morocco $25 bn. and South Africa $24.9 bn. Private businesses organise most of the outflow but government agencies fail to staunch it. The proceeds of commercial tax evasion account for about 65% of the losses, drug trafficking and counterfeiting for about 30%, and bribery and theft involving state officials for about 3%. The report raises policy questions for the World Bank, which launched its own detailed study (financed by Norway) into capital flight. Only South Africa has made a serious effort to stop trade mispricing and corporate tax evasion.

ZIMBABWE

The diamond mine drama

Hot Springs, some 100 kilometres south of Mutare, once aspired to be a spa resort but the gouty planters in its colonial-style hotel have been replaced by Lebanese dealers from West Africa. The town's featureless hinterland seems to contain the largest alluvial diamond field uncovered in the last half century. Or so some say.

SUDAN | ANALYSIS

As elections arrive, the opposition shuns Omer

In the face of blatant preparations for election rigging, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement decided on 31 March to boycott the national presidential election and all elections in Darfur but it will stand in the South, where it dominates the Government of South Sudan (GOSS). As Africa Confidential went to press, the SPLM's partners in the National Consensus Forces (NCF, or Juba Alliance) - the National Umma Party (NUP), Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sudan Communist Party - had decided to withdraw from the presidential vote and, with other parties in the NCF, were still discussing whether to boycott other polls. Hassan Abdullah el Turabi's Popular Congress Party said it would not boycott.

SUDAN

The most complex elections

The combination of one of the most elaborate and time-consuming electoral systems and mass illiteracy across most of the country virtually guarantees chaos in Sudan's elections on 11-13 April. Compounding such logistical problems is the political one of the ruling National Congress Party's (NCP, aka National Islamic Front, NIF) determination to rig the polls, according to Sudanese of many political shades and several March 2010 reports* by independent organisations.

SUDAN

The many ways to win the elections

Independent analysts identify Khartoum's efforts to rig the polls and logistical difficulties (which the regime can exploit).

BURUNDI

A united opposition protest

Twelve worried opposition parties got together on 24 March to issue a joint communiqué denouncing a 'macabre plan' by President Pierre Nkurunziza's government, in the lead-up to the presidential election due on 28 June (AC Vol 50 No 18). Most unusually, their protest brings together both Hutu and Tutsi opposition voices.

TANZANIA

A vote about corruption

It is an overwhelming certainty that the governing Chama cha Mapinduzi will win elections on the mainland again in seven months' time. Yet behind the scenes, there is a battle for power within the party, fuelled by growing concern about grand corruption and the influence of business interests on Parliament. Politics in Zanzibar will be still less predictable. The question is whether the islands' CCM government under President Amani Karume will keep its promise of free and fair elections, as agreed last year with Seif Shariff Hamad, leader of the opposition Civic United Front (CUF).

TANZANIA

The front line of politics

Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete, fourth President of Tanzania, has deep roots in both the ever-governing Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and the armed forces. His first challenge as he ends his term is to maintain the unity of his split-prone party; his second is to keep it popular, despite its unfulfilled promises of 'a better life for all Tanzanians'.

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

A report explaining how Africa has lost more than US$850 billion between 1970 and 2008 in illicit financial flows – mainly through corporate tax evasion, trade mispricing and overpriced supply contracts – suggests that long-standing debates over the merits of foreign aid are wrongly directed. Illicit outflows from Africa, orchestrated by international companies and corrupt officials, have run at well over double the levels of foreign aid sent to Africa from rich countries, according to the repor...

TANZANIA

Altered image

Blatant corruption could jeopardise substantial aid funds for Tanzania's government. About a third of its 2009/10 budget of 9.51 trillion Tanzanian shillings (US$7.29 billion) comes from cheap loans and grants from governments and multilateral institutions. Given the continuing economic stringencies in the West, many of these contributors are preparing to use concerns about graft to justify aid cuts.



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The regional fight intensifies after Kano slaughter

Africa Confidential In The News

 

Reuters, 16 January 2012
UPDATE 1-Nigeria: will it fall apart or can it hold?
[Goodluck Jonathan is] "eerily calm considering we could be weeks away from a major confrontation," said Africa Confidential editor Patrick Smith. "The absolute failure ... to wheel on southerners and northerners at the same time to say this is a national crisis and we have to pull together, is striking."

 

BBC Newshour, 14 January 2012
Suicide bomb kills Basra pilgrims; elections in Taiwan; and special focus on Nigeria audio clip
Africa Confidential's editor Patrick Smith speaks to Julian Marshall in the special focus on Nigeria.

 

BBC Newsnight, 24 August 2011
Risk Islamists will move in to fill Libya power vacuum
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi claimed that if he was ousted from power Islamist radicals would seize control of Libya. Patrick Smith speaks to Newsnight's Robin Denselow about whether he is likely to be proven right or wrong.

 

BBC, 16 August 2011
Solomon Mujuru: Obituary of a Zimbabwean 'king-maker'
"He had all the mystique of a liberation war hero that has served him to present-day politics," Patrick Smith, editor of the London-based Africa Confidential magazine, told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme. 

 

TIME Magazine, 1 June 2011
Death, Prison or Exile: Gaddafi Is Out of Options
"My understanding is that they would be delighted if he did a duck," Smith says.

 




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