Basket 0 Items

SOUTH AFRICA

Football fever, faction fever

As the world’s best football teams battle it out in the stadiums, the ruling party’s factions slug it out behind closed doors

KENYA

The rise of the watermelons

The constitutional referendum is splitting parties, creating bizarre alliances and foreshadowing the 2012 elections

CONGO-KINSHASA

A disastrous half-century

The foreign plunderers have joined with the local elite to create today’s political confusion

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

African football fans descending on South Africa this week promise that pan-African solidarity will win out and that the longest surviving African team in the World Cup tournament will get continent-wide support. There is heated debate about which team that might be now that the injuries of Michael Essien and Didier Drogba have dented the hopes of the Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire teams. Might Algeria’s Desert Foxes or Cameroon’s Indomitable Lions pull off a surprise coup and surpass the 1-0 defeat of Argentina in the 1990 World Cup? Or what about the continent’s economic powerhouses – hosts South Africa and their West African rival Nigeria? In Africa at least, there seems to be an inverse relationship between footballing success and economic growth. In the 1990s, Nigeria’s economy and politics were stifled by a succession of military juntas, but its footballing star was on the rise and in 1996 the Olympic team took the gold medal, beating Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. South Africa’s Bafana Bafana, also on a winning streak, clinched the 1996 Africa Cup of Nations. Since then, Africa has enjoyed a decade of GDP growth averaging over 5% a year but its football fortunes have sunk lower. So when banks such as Goldman Sachs and Renaissance Capital predict that Nigeria’s economy will shortly surpass that of South Africa, they might spare a thought for the Super Eagles’ fans this month. This might be the Eagles’ last chance to outplay Bafana Bafana, even if their fans can look forward to fatter pay packets.

CONGO-KINSHASA

The men who run the profitable show

The mechanics of Congo-Kinshasa’s government baffle almost everyone, including many of the participants. A handful of people, mostly unelected associates of President Joseph Kabila, wield the real power; most of the appointed ministers have little practical power. For Kabila, Katanga remains the most important province, economically and politically. Here are his key people.

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

Bringing in the money

The mini-power cut that plunged the elegant plenary hall of the Hôtel Ivoire into darkness was met by consternation and a few knowing chuckles. It came just before the arrival of the dignitaries at the opening ceremony of the African Development Bank (AfDB)meeting in Abidjan on 27-28 May and illuminated the challenges to Africa’s tired and inadequate infrastructure. The speedy return of power and light, to resounding cheers, was another kind of symbol.

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

New management for new tasks

Recent years have seen a relentless quest for African talent in the African Development Bank, with significant recruitment at all levels. Around 40% of the staff joined within the last two years and their total number has gone up by 50% since Bank chief Donald Kaberuka began his first term in 2005. The total regular staff is now 1,600, with about 200 temporary staff and around 500 consultants.

SUDAN

Flash point Southern Kordofan

The rerun of the population census in South Kordofan next week will highlight another flash point in Sudan’s shaky North-South peace agreement ahead of the referenda on self-determination for the South and Abyei, due on 9 January. Two years ago, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group warned that South Kordofan could be ‘the next Darfur’. Since then, the political climate has worsened and now many more share such concerns.

SUDAN

Militias of the new age

In the seven short months before January’s independence referendum, militias in the South’s oil-producing areas – Upper Nile, Jonglei and Unity states – will be one of the main challenges facing the Government of South Sudan. Many believe the warlords running the militias are paid and armed by the Khartoum regime. Certainly, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, which dominates the GOSS, sees Khartoum’s machinations behind the mutiny of several hundred mainly Nuer troops of the GOSS army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, and now openly accuses the National Congress Party of destabilisation.

CAPITAL FLIGHT

Where the money went

As the Group of Twenty (G-20) countries gets ready to meet in Canada for its economic summit on 26-27 June, African governments are preparing their pitch. This year, it may be different. Firstly, South Africa now represents Africa among the top 20. Secondly, Africa’s economies have been far less affected by the international financial storms than the big Western nations. Meanwhile, the debate about aid and trade is changing fast.

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

CAPITAL FLIGHT

Higher taxes, says the OECD

Joining the call for tougher action on capital flight from poor countries, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development last month co-published a study with the African Development Bank arguing that African states should renegotiate unfavourable contracts with multinational companies to get a better return on their natural resources. Presenting the study at the AfDB’s Annual Meeting in Abidjan on 27-28 May, an OECD official said: ‘Where multinational firms fail to abide by minimum corporate governance standards in terms of tax contributions, governments should consider renegotiating concessions.’

FREE EMAIL ALERTS

Need to know what's really happening in political, diplomatic and security circles across Africa?

Then sign up today to receive our FREE email alert service, from Africa Confidential’s Editor, Patrick Smith, and you'll be one of the first to find out what's happening – and understand the implications for your organisation.

You get the latest Africa Confidential headlines delivered direct to your email inbox every fortnight, plus a FREE COPY of 'The Editor's Choice' – 66 pages of the very best recent articles from Africa Confidential.

NB: 'The Editor's Choice' is in PDF format. So you can download it in an instant – just as soon as you have registered with us.

Complete your details below, and you'll soon be reading our first-class coverage and analysis of African developments.

out now!

Visit africa-asia-confidential.com to see extracts from the latest edition.

Patrick Smith talks about Africa-Asia Confidential on the BBC World Service

confidentially speaking

The Africa Confidential blog

Go to the blog

Latest post

The regional fight intensifies after Kano slaughter

Africa Confidential In The News

Reuters, 16 January 2012
UPDATE 1-Nigeria: will it fall apart or can it hold?
[Goodluck Jonathan is] "eerily calm considering we could be weeks away from a major confrontation," said Africa Confidential editor Patrick Smith. "The absolute failure ... to wheel on southerners and northerners at the same time to say this is a national crisis and we have to pull together, is striking."

BBC Newshour, 14 January 2012
Suicide bomb kills Basra pilgrims; elections in Taiwan; and special focus on Nigeria
Africa Confidential's editor Patrick Smith speaks to Julian Marshall in the special focus on Nigeria.

BBC Newsnight, 24 August 2011
Risk Islamists will move in to fill Libya power vacuum
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi claimed that if he was ousted from power Islamist radicals would seize control of Libya. Patrick Smith speaks to Newsnight's Robin Denselow about whether he is likely to be proven right or wrong.

BBC, 16 August 2011
Solomon Mujuru: Obituary of a Zimbabwean 'king-maker'
"He had all the mystique of a liberation war hero that has served him to present-day politics," Patrick Smith, editor of the London-based Africa Confidential magazine, told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme.

TIME Magazine, 1 June 2011
Death, Prison or Exile: Gaddafi Is Out of Options
"My understanding is that they would be delighted if he did a duck," Smith says.