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Campaigning for next month’s constitutional referendum is a mixture of ideology, religion and personal ambition – and now the thugs have moved in

The main open disagreements in the lead up to Kenya’s constitutional referendum on 4 August are about abortion, Muslim kadhi courts and land. The batt...

KENYA

Yes, No and in between

KENYA

Bombing the campaign

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

Politicians, investors or activists looking for a pattern to the myriad natural resource disputes in Africa are liable to be disappointed. The common theme is the growing acceptance, articulated by the OECD and the African Development Bank, that African governments have the right if not a duty to renegotiate chronically disadvantageous mining and oil contracts. This week Africa Confidential reports on the bitter dispute between Congo-Kinshasa and Canada’s First Quantum Mining. Although it has gone to arbitration in Paris, Canada wants the Kinshasa government sanctioned by the World Bank and the IMF for trying to appropriate an investor’s asset. Also in Congo, Ireland’s Tullow Oil is at odds with Kinshasa, which has stripped it of two exploration blocks and handed them to Aurora Empowerment Systems, whose Chairman is a nephew of South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma. In Uganda, Tullow put together a groundbreaking deal with France’s Total and China’s CNOOC to produce oil from the Lake Albert basin and build a pipeline to Kenya’s coast. There, Tullow bought out Britain’s Heritage Oil for over US$1.3 bn. but Kampala insists Heritage pay $360 mn. in capital gains tax on its hyper-profits. Heritage is protesting and international bankers are siding with Kampala. Likewise in Ghana, the USA’s Kosmos Energy seems to be losing its long war of attrition against the government, which opposes its attempts to negotiate a $4 bn. exit sale without consulting the state oil company.

ZIMBABWE

Diplomacy by other means

South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma is beginning to tire of the political impasse in Harare. We hear that Zuma’s office has just sent a stern note to the three principals of 2008’s Global Political Agreement (GPA) – Robert Mugabe, Arthur Mutambara and Morgan Tsvangirai – firmly setting out the limits of South Africa’s mediating role if the parties do not keep to their undertakings.

ZIMBABWE

Newsdays and the old days

The new Media Commission is finally operational and is issuing licences to publish newspapers. After a year’s foot-dragging, during which the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) tried every delaying tactic, the arrival of the Newsday tabloid on the newsstands has rather underwhelmed the public. It was poor timing to launch the paper during the World Cup in South Africa, as most Zimbabweans were relentlessly focused on the tournament, which eclipsed the usual independent news diet of human rights abuses and corruption in the diamond fields and the latest ructions in the coalition government.

CONGO-KINSHASA | CANADA

Ottawa confronts Africa at the G-20 summit

Canada, which hosts the Group of Eight and Group of Twenty summits on 26-27 June, is to call for action against what it claims is an attempt by Congo-Kinshasa to expropriate a copper and cobalt project run by the Vancouver-based First Quantum Mining (FQM). Although the dispute has gone to international arbitration, the Kinshasa government signed a contract in January that hands over a majority share of the assets to a mysterious consortium, registered in the British Virgin Islands (BVI) and led by Highwind Properties.

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

Obiang’s prize turnip

After much internal agonising and diplomatic arm-twisting, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation backed down on 15 June and rejected an offer from Equatorial Guinea’s President, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, to sponsor a proposed leadership prize. Obiang’s regime is regularly judged one of the most corrupt and brutal in the world by the anti-corruption lobby Transparency International and human rights movement Amnesty International.

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

See you in court in Beirut

The fortunes of one of Black Beach gaol’s most celebrated inmates, the convicted coup plotter Simon Mann, have improved since his release ‘on compassionate grounds’ by President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo last November. In April, Mann sold his Palladian mansion in Hampshire for £16 million (US$23.8 mn.) to Myers Developments, registered in Guernsey.

SUDAN

Crisis cabinets

The message from the new government in Khartoum is that the National Congress Party is in full control and intends to stay there. The message from the new Government of Southern Sudan is that a strengthened GOSS will make sure January’s referendum on Southern independence is held on time. The subtext is that the NCP will reinforce its bid to block the referenda in the South and Abyei while clamping down in Darfur and the rest of the North.

SUDAN

The international agenda

The most dramatic military-security appointment is of Ali Ahmed Kurti as full Foreign Affairs Minister (he was previously State Minister). He is best known for establishing the Popular Defence Forces, the partly press-ganged but increasingly volunteer Islamist militia that has fought the National Islamic Front-National Congress Party jihad from Equatoria to Darfur. In the NIF’s early years, the PDF were deployed in the South and Nuba Mountains to jobs that a still not completely purged army might refuse.

GUINEA

High-stakes election

Eighteen months after the coup led by Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, the military Conseil National pour la Démocratie et le Développement (CNDD) is keeping its promise of a presidential election on 27 June. Electors will choose between the leaders of Guinea’s two main ethnic groups. The largest, the Peuhl (Fulani), has about 40% of the population and the main party they tend to vote for is the Union des Forces Démocratiques de Guinée (UFDG), led by Cellou Dalein Diallo. The Malinké (Mandingo), who make up some 35% of the population, mostly back the Rassemblement du Peuple de Guinée (RPG), led by Alpha Condé (AC Vol 51 No 11).

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

Politicians, investors or activists looking for a pattern to the myriad natural resource disputes in Africa are liable to be disappointed. The common theme is the growing acceptance, articulated by the OECD and the African Development Bank, that African governments have the right if not a duty to renegotiate chronically disadvantageous mining and oil contracts. This week Africa Confidential reports on the bitter dispute between Congo-Kinshasa and Canada’s First Quantum Mining. Although...

BURUNDI

Single party rules again

The one-party state is back. President Pierre Nkurunziza will be the only candidate in the 28 June presidential elections. The opposition’s right to hold meetings has been suspended, along with the right to strike. International efforts to help restore democracy are petering out.



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The regional fight intensifies after Kano slaughter

Africa Confidential In The News

 

Reuters, 16 January 2012
UPDATE 1-Nigeria: will it fall apart or can it hold?
[Goodluck Jonathan is] "eerily calm considering we could be weeks away from a major confrontation," said Africa Confidential editor Patrick Smith. "The absolute failure ... to wheel on southerners and northerners at the same time to say this is a national crisis and we have to pull together, is striking."

 

BBC Newshour, 14 January 2012
Suicide bomb kills Basra pilgrims; elections in Taiwan; and special focus on Nigeria audio clip
Africa Confidential's editor Patrick Smith speaks to Julian Marshall in the special focus on Nigeria.

 

BBC Newsnight, 24 August 2011
Risk Islamists will move in to fill Libya power vacuum
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi claimed that if he was ousted from power Islamist radicals would seize control of Libya. Patrick Smith speaks to Newsnight's Robin Denselow about whether he is likely to be proven right or wrong.

 

BBC, 16 August 2011
Solomon Mujuru: Obituary of a Zimbabwean 'king-maker'
"He had all the mystique of a liberation war hero that has served him to present-day politics," Patrick Smith, editor of the London-based Africa Confidential magazine, told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme. 

 

TIME Magazine, 1 June 2011
Death, Prison or Exile: Gaddafi Is Out of Options
"My understanding is that they would be delighted if he did a duck," Smith says.

 




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