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Image courtesy of Panos Pictures

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Fairer voting helps but fundamental reforms are needed to tackle the crisis in the impoverished north

NIGERIA

Governors, godfathers and guts

BURKINA FASO

Beau Blaise loses it

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

Britain’s and Malawi’s reciprocal ambassadorial expulsions this week could prove an expensive diplomatic spat. President Bingu wa Mutharika declared British High Commissioner Fergus Cochrane-Dyet persona non grata after the Blantyre weekly The Nation printed what it claimed were extracts from a cable accusing Mutharika of getting ‘ever more autocratic and intolerant of criticism’, an assertion apparently supported by subsequent events. Mutharika’s decision triggered the expulsion of his High Commissioner in London, Flossie Gomile-Chidyaonga.

It also threatens UK aid: the current four-year programme, worth about US$112 million, expires this year. Whitehall’s Department for International Development under Andrew Mitchell is cutting aid deemed ‘non-productive’ and may see the row as a reason for jettisoning the programme.

Cochrane-Dyet’s cable discussed Malawi’s eligibility for future support if the government were to physically harm the activists and dissenters it has threatened. It said any withdrawal of UK aid could prompt other Western countries to follow, devastating the Malawian economy. ‘The President’s brother looked thoughtful when I spelled this out to him’, Cochrane-Dyet said. We hear Mutharika was vacillating about whether to expel Cochrane-Dyet. Director of State Residences Edward Sawerengera argued for the move saying China would replace any loss from UK cuts. Given Malawi’s lack of substantial mineral riches, that may prove problematic.

SOMALIA | PIRACY

Bluff and bluster

At huge expense, the United Arab Emirates brought scores of countries to Dubai on 18-19 April to craft new policies and raise finance to fight the growing threat from pirates based in Somalia and the wider region. Yet the delegates only managed to raise about US$5 million to tackle piracy which brings in over $200 mn. a year for the criminal gangs involved. Added to this, there are signs that Islamist groups are increasingly using ‘taxes’ on pirates as a means of raising finance for their own military operations.

SOMALIA

Sinking the pirates

Signs that piracy is getting worse are numerous and stark. They include higher ransoms, longer detentions of vessels and crews, and the use of more and often larger mother ships, leading to seizures over a vastly greater area. Violence is now more frequent and more ruthless.New approaches are therefore being sought, at a time when military budgets are heavily stretched. Some United Nations officials have called for a new comprehensive study to develop a more coherent approach based on shared intelligence. Many shipping industry, naval and other governmental officials internationally have stressed that a multi-pronged approach is needed.

SOUTH AFRICA | ANALYSIS

Local elections threaten the ANC's national grip

President Jacob Zuma’s political position has become precarious and a poor show at the municipal polls will hurt him as much as his governing party (AC Vol 52 No 8). He is suffering abuse from senior colleagues over all aspects of his life, personal and political, and the media almost routinely reveals new corruption scandals about his government and his ministers. The local elections are creating problems for the ANC as a whole, though. To many people, the issues bothering electors exemplify the problems of both Zuma and the party.

SOUTH AFRICA | ANALYSIS

Towns at risk for the ANC

The ANC faces tough electoral competition in several constituencies.

TANZANIA

New brooms, old handles

President Jakaya Kikwete has reshuffled the top levels of the governing Chama Cha Mapinduzi, in power now for 50 years, to forestall faction-fighting and prevent the party splitting apart. He is clearing the decks, moving old corrupt figures and others, in readiness for the 2015 general elections. He has been telling friends he believes the CCM is ‘dying from inside’, owing to the factional stresses. His problem is a big fall in popularity and authority for himself and the party, in spite of winning with 61% of the vote on 31 October 2010 (AC Vol 51 No 23). The win was commanding but the 42% turnout put a different complexion on the result, alerting Kikwete to the need to renew the party if apathy is not to turn into active opposition.

UGANDA

Opposition works the walk

A series of ‘Walk to Work’ protests against escalating food and fuel prices has caught the public’s imagination and the government is cracking down. Opposition leaders are under restrictions: Kizza Besigye, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) President who lost heavily in February’s presidential election, was arrested for the fourth time in a fortnight on 21 April (AC Vol 52 No 5). The demonstrations started on a small scale and then grew. Party leaders, members of parliament and a few dozen supporters attempted to walk the main roads in solidarity with ordinary Ugandans priced out of the transport system.

UGANDA

Taxation without legal representation

The disputes over the Lake Albert oil licences and taxes which oil companies owe the government show no sign of ending. Heritage Oil should have paid tax to the government when it sold its exploration blocks to Tullow Oil, says the government. When it didn’t, Kampala sought the tax from Tullow.

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

Britain’s and Malawi’s reciprocal ambassadorial expulsions this week could prove an expensive diplomatic spat. President Bingu wa Mutharika declared British High Commissioner Fergus Cochrane-Dyet persona non grata after the Blantyre weekly The Nation printed what it claimed were extracts from a cable accusing Mutharika of getting ‘ever more autocratic and intolerant of criticism’, an assertion apparently supported by subsequent events. Mutharika’s decision triggered the expulsio...

AFRICA | BRITAIN

Getting (not too) tough on corruption

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development had criticised the delays in implementing the new Act but stayed silent when the guidance came out at the end of March. Britain ratified the OECD Convention on Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions in 1998 but had lagged behind others in passing new anti-corruption laws.


Pointers  

MOROCCO

Campaign timetable

King Mohammed VI (‘M6’) seems in little danger of losing his throne. However, the mainly peaceful protests for political change and social justice inspired by the Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt will continue at least until a commission he...

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