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New opponents are lurking in the shadows as President Obasanjo tries to change course

'Everything is in place,' the tall man in babariga assured his audience in a Kaduna street. 'In place for what?' came the reply. 'Regime change of course!' the tall man smirked. Such stories openly predicting, even hoping for a military coup are now common, especially in the north. How seriously sho...

KENYA

One year under the Rainbow

KENYA

Kibaki, Keriri and allies

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

ZIMBABWE | COMMONWEALTH

The cost of Mugabe

Like a slow-motion train crash, from 5 to 8 December Commonwealth leaders allowed a bad-tempered discussion on Zimbabwe to dominate their summit, ending in the continuation of sanctions against President Robert Mugabe's government and its predicted withdrawal from the 54-member club. Other important business, such as ending agricultural subsidies, trade reform, more cooperation on anti-HIV/AIDS strategy and regional security, was sidelined as the Zimbabwe row divided the summiteers. Commonwealth staffers dismissed such worries: the theme of the summit was 'democracy and development' and the row focused attention on both. Two questions emerge from the debacle in Abuja: could more astute diplomacy have secured a better result? Will the fall-out cause lasting damage to the Commonwealth and its African members? The answer is a double'yes'.

CHAD | SUDAN

The language of weapons

Armed opposition is on the rise again, as anti-government militias train in Sudan and politicians grow restless in N'djamena. The unrest puts at risk not only the ailing President Idriss Déby but also the flagship transparency project imposed by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund on the Doba basin oil development. Doba now produces 100,000 barrels per day, which should climb to 225,000 bpd early next year, says the IMF. On 28 November, US$6.5 million of oil revenue was deposited in Citibank, London, which holds most of the cash in an escrow account, for health, education and other projects. The Chadian Treasury's account gets only 15 per cent.

CHAD | SUDAN

Dead men tell tales

Ibn Omer Youssef Idriss, a Sudanese businessman, was shot dead at point blank range outside Chad's Foreign Ministry on 25 September. Six weeks later, on 6 November, four men who had been convicted of his murder with unprecedented speed were shot by firing squad. One was Adouma Ali Ahmed, also Sudanese and a former advisor to Chadian President Idriss Déby. Both the Sudanese were directors of the Chad Petroleum Company (CPC), so Chadians tend to suspect regime greed behind the affair.

GUINEA

No change there, then

With a presidential election looming on 21 December, Guinea's military high command has banned soldiers from carrying arms in the Samory Touré barracks ­ where President Lansana Conté has his Conakry residence ­ and in the Alpha Yaya Diallo army base. Soldiers, and even their officers, have been barred from bringing their own cars into the camps. In the wake of a boycott of the election called by all the principal opposition leaders, the authorities detained dozens of soldiers in Conakry and the provinces throughout late November. The presidency said security forces had foiled a coup planned for 28 November. Other official sources said there was a plan to kidnap Conté from the Sékhoutoureyah palace in Conakry at the Korité prayer marking the end of Ramadan.


Pointers  

BURUNDI

Risky dealings

Military reform and a new national army are key to the South African-led peace efforts (AC Vol 44 No 16). They remain on a knife-edge. Since the 16 November ceasefire, brokered by SA Deputy President Jacob Zuma and signed in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, there...

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