Africa Confidential, December 2006
ZIMBABWEZANU-PF National Conference December 2006Special reports from the conference
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Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front's National Conference 2006
The ninth Zimbabwe African National Union conference may be finished but the controversy isn't. Welshman Ncube, Secretary General of the Mutambara-led Movement for Democratic Change faction, has called the extension of President Robert Gabriel Mugabe's term in office until 2010 'a civilian coup' and vowed protest.
Whilst MDC protest has been largely ineffectual in the past, this one
could harness the support of ZANU-PF moderates also opposed to a 2010
term.
The fans were flamed when Mugabe announced on
Sunday that only 'God' could remove him from office precipitating
fears that he intends to stay beyond 2010.
'Forever? Who needs forever?' Mugabe responded to journalists'
questions about whether he intended to rule indefinitely. 'God is
there, I can't live forever.'
But here's the rub. According to ZANU-PF officials, who have spoken to Africa Confidential, no resolution was ever adopted at the conference, despite the parrotings of the official press.
'It was Mugabe's decision, his instigation. He fears he will lose
2008. It was adopted by the Politburo, with opposition from
[Vice-President Joyce] Mujuru but she swallowed it.
She's intent on her own ambitions. But no resolution on the matter was
tabled at the conference it was deferred,' one official told AC.
Mugabe needs to amend the constitution if he is to pursue his 2010 bid.
At present, with combined MDC and moderate ZANU-PF MPs he will face a
fight to get the necessary two-thirds majority.
With no change in political direction there's little hope for the economy, according to ZANU-PF analyst Ibbo Mandaza.
Agricultural production was up on last year, but the rains are already
late this season, putting next season's harvest at risk. 'The economy
is going to get worse; we could have inflation at 5000 percent by the
end of next year,' said Mandaza.
Others are not so pessimistic. Harare-based land expert Professor Sam Moyo
foresees good growth on the commercial farms bolstered by the
government's new 99-year lease scheme and government cutbacks on
quasi-fiscal spending to reduce inflation.
17 December 2006
Unity and solidarity are the greatest weapons, President Robert Mugabe
thundered at 4,000 assembled delegates in his keynote speech at the
Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front's ninth conference,
urging people to be patient whilst the economy is in ‘transition’. ‘We
are impartial and objective and we will gain much more in terms of
uniting out people, Mugabe said to the crowd.
Only problem is, the official press aside, nobody believes him.
"We want the conference to tell the truth. The economy is in bad shape.
We fear the wrath of the people when we go to meet them," said
Mashonaland East Governor Ray Kaukonde, urging the government to focus on the economy instead of politics.
Corruption was another bête noir. Mugabe spent part of his speech
openly castigating the corruption of ZANU-PF officials, in particular
the heads of parastatals – Ziscosteel and the Zimbabwe Electricity
Supply Authority come to mind particularly. One placard in the
main hall read: ‘Crookish leaders betray people's trust’.
According to the state-run Daily Mirror, Mugabe is expected to reshuffle his Politburo cabinet on Sunday in a bid of strength.
ZANU-PF stands divided. Moderates are fuming at the proposed extension
of Mugabe's presidential term until 2010 – and perhaps longer, under
the guise of election ‘cost-cutting’.
Eight out of ten
ZANU-PF provinces are backing the plan to scrap the 2008 vote so that
it will be ‘harmonised’ and held at the same time as parliamentary
elections in 2010. A final resolution is expected to be passed later
today.
‘He [Mugabe] doesn't want to fight elections in 2008 given regional pressure," said private economist John Robertson. ‘After regional elections in the Congo and Zambia, there is much more monitoring; he won't put people's wrath to the test in 2008."
Then
there's the sucession. Yesterday Mugabe insisted that there were no
‘vacancies’ in the presidency. Still, his failure to mention any
favourites hasn't damped the expectations of Joyce ‘Spill Blood’ Mujuru, ably supported by her military husband, retired General Solomon Mujuru, who hopes to pip hardman Emmerson Mnangagwa, ZANU-PF’s Legal Affairs Secretary, to the top post.
Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front's National Conference 2006
Anticipation
is high across the country on 15 December as delegates begin piling
into Goromonzi High School in Mashonaland East Province for the start
of ruling-party Zanu PF's annual conference. President Robert Mugabe
has already given his assent for the presidential poll – currently
scheduled for 2008 – to be 'harmonised' with the parliamentary
elections in 2010. Mugabe's cabinet has also agreed, making a necessary
resolution at the party's assembly a mere formality in extending the
President's tenure for another two years.
Many think
Mugabe will stay on longer, particularly if Zimbabwe's economic woes
continue, which they are bound to for the foreseeable future amidst
inflation touching 1100 percent. Some officials, such as Land minister Didymus Mutasa,
have implied that Mugabe should be made President-for-life officially,
though this would only confirm what people have suspected for some
time. 2010 would take Mugabe's rule up to 30 years – from whence
he would be competing with a select few of Africa's longest-serving
despots, for instance Mobutu Sese Seko, who was in power for 32 years (1965-1997).
Despite
the economic malaise, the capital city Harare is looking clean and
pretty, if a little ragged at the edges. The government has certainly
gone on a clean-up in a bid to boost its image for foreign investors:
pavements have been washed, potholes filled, garbage picked up and
lawns mowed. But one Harare taxi driver complained that the
tidy-up had been confined to the centre, the so-called central business
district. If you go down to Mbare Township, he warned, be ready to
encounter weeks-old piles of rubbish, cheek-by-jowl with rickety,
makeshift huts – the legacy of last year's 'Operation Restore Order',
which made thousands of people homeless when their houses were
destroyed by the security forces. "What we need is change," the taxi
driver said.
Still, there are those who think that Mugabe
isn't the problem per se: it's his policies. "The conference is a
non-event – what matters is policy," Bulawayo-based economist Eric Bloch
told AC. "The only difference being that, after the conference,
four thousand delegates will leave better fed and drunker than when
they arrived on Friday."
The action kicks off tomorrow. Watch this space.
