Jump to navigation

Rwanda

Slow progress on the diplomatic de-icing

Prepared for Free Article on 16/04/2024 at 16:24. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact subscriptions@africa-confidential.com.
PREVIEW

President Museveni's son, General Muhoozi, is keener on restoring ties with Kigali's government than his father

The deep freeze between Rwanda and Uganda may be coming to an end after officials confirmed earlier this week that they had resumed diplomatic talks.

The Joint Permanent Commission (JPC) between the two countries, which last met in 2012, will now be revived, and Rwanda will host its next meeting scheduled for March 2023.

The thaw began in January when and Rwanda's President Paul Kagame met with Uganda's General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the politically ambitious son of President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. Muhoozi and Kagame  agreed to re-open their countries' common border (AC Vol 63 No 3, Border reopening points to diplomatic thaw). It had been closed suddenly in 2019 after Rwanda accused the Ugandans of harbouring political dissidents. Improvements continued with Kagame's official visit to Kampala in April and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's trip to Kigali in June for the Commonwealth summit. Muhoozi, in particular, has taken a leading role in the recent shuttle diplomacy, also deporting several dissidents from the Rwandan opposition (Dispatches, 11/4/22. Deporting dissidents boosts Generals Muhoozi and Kagame).

'We have agreed that we need to be able to speak with one voice, in as far as regional matters, particularly security is concerned,' Uganda's foreign minister Jeje Odongo said following a meeting with Rwandan counterpart, Vincent Biruta on Thursday (1 September).

However, despite the restoration of diplomatic niceties, resolving security disputes is likely to be slow. The immediate priority is likely to be restoring cross-border trade. Uganda's exports to Rwanda dropped to $2 million in 2020 at the peak of hostilities between the two countries, down from over $200m in better times. Trade volumes have been very slow to pick up since the re-opening. Manufacturers on both sides say that tariff and non-tariff barriers remain in place, particularly affecting food and agriculture, mining, iron and steel-related industries.

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
https://www.africa-confidential.com


Related Articles

Border reopening points to diplomatic thaw

President Museveni's son and putative successor played key role in sensitive negotiations as Kampala and Kigali discuss new regional security threats

The agreement between Uganda's General Muhoozi Kainerugaba and Rwanda's President Paul Kagame to re-open their countries' common land border on 31 January was driven by economic lo...

Past and present

The spectres of past elections and battles haunted the Presidential poll to be held on 9 May. Parliamentary elections are due in June. President Yoweri Museveni was relying on supp...

Al Shabaab’s waiting game

Regardless of the recent defeats of Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, senior African Union Mission in Somalia commanders privately admit that the next phase of military operations is fraught with potential difficulties. Since forcing Al Shabaab out of Mogadishu in August, five years after Amisom first came to Somalia, the Ugandan People’s Defence Force’s 5,500-strong contingent is slowly moving out to assume control of new territory beyond the capital. Any bolder moves to occupy territory further afield, however, depend on leaving currently-occupied zones to Transitional Federal Government (TFG) soldiers and police, whose competence and reliability are in some doubt. Amisom commanders also worry because communications are scant and coordination absent with the Ethiopian forces to the south. Now that the Kenyan forces have been re-hatted as Amisom, links with them should improve.

Lack of trust in the TFG forces who have to take over the Ugandan and Burundian positions when Amisom moves out of Mogadishu is making Amisom tread cautiously. The TFG forces are ...

Deadly anniversary

The regime prepares to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the genocide

Six months after his Front Patriotique Rwandais swept the board at last year's presidential and parliamentary elections, President Paul Kagame is still putting his regime in order ...


Stories by country

Footer Map