confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
AFRICA/UNITED STATES: After security talks and a bout of illness, Secretary Tillerson returns early to Washington DC to be sacked
Patrick Smith
As the week opens United States Secretary of
State Rex Tillerson's diplomatic career seems to have
ended after a brief swing through Africa. Partisans on both sides of
the divide in Kenya are asking who got what at last
week's summit at State House. Nigeria's President Muhammadu
Buhari opts for negotiations, not military force, to try to
rescue the students abducted at Dapchi and pressure mounts on South
Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa to sack
his predecessor's security allies.
AFRICA/UNITED STATES: After security talks and a bout
of illness, Secretary Tillerson returns early to Washington DC to be
sacked
Billed as an 'apology tour' – in the wake of President Donald
Trump's derogatory references to the region – Secretary of
State Rex Tillerson's trip to Africa last week must rank as one of the
most ill-starred diplomatic missions in recent history. Tillerson's
schedule of difficult talks on regional security in Addis Ababa, Djibouti,
Nairobi, Chad and Nigeria was cut
short, first by his illness in Kenya, and then by the news that Trump
was about to sack him.
Hours after Tillerson arrived back in Washington late
yesterday (12 March), Trump announced via Twitter that he was
appointing Mike Pompeo, the head of the Central
Intelligence Agency, to succeed Tillerson as he thanked Tillerson 'for
his service'. Only the timing was surprising.
Relations publicly soured between Tillerson and Trump last
year after the Secretary of State declined to disavow press reports
that he described the President as a 'moron'. Trump then chose to
launch two of his biggest foreign policy initiatives – new tariffs on
iron and steel and opening direct talks with North Korean
leader Kim Jong Un – while Tillerson was in Africa,
10,000 kilometres from Washington DC.
Apart from all that, Tillerson's diplomatic efforts in Africa
were less than stellar. He launched his tour with a sweeping criticism
of China's policy in Africa, accusing Beijing of
presiding over an unsustainable build-up of debt in the region and
signing opaque and poor-value contracts. For many African politicians,
this was a bizarre line of argument when the US was cutting funding to
its core Africa projects by more than a third.
After brief discussions on regional security in Ethiopia
and Djibouti, which both have extremely close ties to China,
Tillerson's stopover in Nairobi started with a partial success. He
tried to claim some credit for a conciliatory meeting between President
Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila
Odinga on 9 March.
In fact, the rapprochement had followed mounting local and
international pressure on the two leaders. Shortly after, Tillerson
fell ill and was out of action for two days. He rounded up the trip
with the briefest of meetings with Chad's President Idris Déby
Itno (the two knew each other from Tillerson's time at
ExxonMobil) and Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari.
Although his African interlocutors may have had some sympathy
with Tillerson, given Trump's peremptory treatment of him, the
management of his trip seems to reinforce the lack of importance that
the current President attaches to Africa.
KENYA: Questions about a deal as opposition suspend
its People's Assemblies in wake of Odinga-Kenyatta talks
More details are set to emerge this week of what was
agreed on 9 March at the first face-to-face talks between President
Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, leader of the National Super Alliance
(Nasa) since last year's disputed elections.
Little about the substance of the negotiations has emerged
since the meeting. But Odinga's side has suspended its call for
People's Assemblies to be set up across the country as a rival power
centre to Kenyatta's Jubilee government.
It is also unclear where this leaves the political alliance
that underpins Nasa. In recent weeks, there were signs that Odinga's
partners – Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia
Mudavadi – had strong misgivings about Nasa's direction of
travel. Neither Musyoka nor Mudavadi attended Odinga's 'inauguration'
as 'People's President' in Nairobi's Uhuru Park last month.
Equally intriguing is what an Odinga-Kenyatta deal might mean
for the power dynamics of the Jubilee government, in which
Vice-President William Ruto is playing an
increasingly assertive role. Some of Ruto's allies regard Kenyatta as a
lame-duck president given their man's position as presidential
frontrunner in 2022.
Should Kenyatta offer posts in the government to Odinga and
allies, that could upset the current balance of forces that favours
Ruto so strongly.
NIGERIA: President Buhari chooses negotiations – not
military action – for return of kidnapped students
Nigerians were quick to show their outrage at the
kidnapping by Boko Haram fighters of 110 girl students in
Dapchi, Yobe State, last month and demanded rapid action from their
government. Certainly, some of the action was rapid – President
Muhammadu Buhari despatched three security ministers to the state
within two days of the first reports. Then, the recriminations between
rival wings of the security system started to complicate matters.
Buhari's announcement yesterday (12 March), after his meeting
with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, that he would negotiate for
the release of the students illustrates the government's lack of
options less than a month after the abductions. It appears that
negotiations, apparently involving payments and prisoner releases, have
helped secure the release of other hostages held by Boko Haram,
more than 18 months after their abduction.
This time, with the government acting more promptly, the
negotiating track could yield better results. But it points to Boko
Haram's ability, or at least that faction run by Abubakar
Shekau, to evade surveillance or military action, particularly
in the border area between Yobe state and the southern region of the
Republic of Niger.
This latest major abduction is already having political
repercussions. The #Bringbackourgirls campaign quickly organised
solidarity rallies with the victims and their families. That awoke bad
memories of the kidnapping of over 250 schoolgirls by Boko Haram
from Chibok in Borno State in 2014, a year before national elections.
Whatever Boko Haram's motives – propaganda,
recruitment or fund-raising – the Dapchi kidnappings could damage
Buhari's electoral chances in the same way that the Chibok attacks
undermined Goodluck Jonathan. Aware of these risks,
Buhari has been more pro-active on the issue and has announced a
presidential trip to the region.
All but Buhari's sternest critics concede that on his watch
the military effort against the Boko Haram insurgents has
cleared out the militants as an occupying force in the north-east and
has been better coordinated with neighbouring states. But there are
important provisos, such as doubts about the ability of Nigeria's
military to counter Boko Haram as an insurgent, hit-and-run,
terrorist force. The Dapchi attack has also shown the danger of
inter-service rivalries in Nigeria, as well as the potential
consequences of rights violations against civilians by military
personnel. Anger at such incidents could bolster support for the
insurgents.
SOUTH AFRICA: Pressure builds for a purge of police,
prosecutors and spies as key suspects escape
Activists are pushing President Cyril Ramaphosa to
launch the next phase of his fightback against corruption and 'state
capture' by pushing out some of his predecessor Jacob Zuma's
top security and financial officials. Ramaphosa's campaign needs
a shot in the arm if public reaction on the popular talk radio stations
in Johannesburg, Durban and Cape Town is any measure.
News reports suggest that far from being cowed, those accused
of wrongdoing such as Zuma's son, Duduzane, and some
of the Gupta family are due to appear in
parliament this week defending themselves at the Commission of Inquiry
into State Capture.
After a show of prosecutorial enthusiasm as Ramaphosa replaced
Zuma as President, police efforts against malefactors seem to be
running out of energy. Although Police Minister Bheki Cele
is regarded as an effective 'hard man', he is battling against legions
of Zuma appointees.
He and the other Ramaphosa reformers would be greatly helped
by the exit of a band of top officials, widely regarded as Zuma
stooges: National Director of Public Prosecutions Shaun
Abrahams (Ramaphosa is said to have opened discussions with Glynis
Breytenbach for the job); Tom Moyane as
commissioner for the South Africa Revenue Service; and Arthur
Fraser, Director General of the State Security Authority. As
pressure mounts on the system, insiders expect to see some big changes
in the coming weeks.
NEWS IN VERY BRIEF
SIERRA LEONE: Opposition's Maada
Bio has narrow lead in presidential election but second
round likely
GHANA: Government borrowing under
pressure as cocoa harvest falls short of 850,000 tonne target
SOMALIA: Government and opposition
launch joint protest over claims of UAE's 'political
interference' in region
CONGO-KINSHASA: Opposition leader
Katumbi launches a new anti-Kabila front ahead of polls due in December
