confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
AFRICAN ECONOMIES: Continent-wide Free Trade pact starts but faces key tests on the ground as multiple non-tariff barriers remain
Patrick Smith
This week we start with some better news about the continental
trade treaty. And then to Khartoum for reports of a massacre at the
protestors' sit-in and to Kinshasa for a funeral of one of the
continent's most determined opposition campaigners. And finally, to
Nairobi where the Kenyatta government piles on more
debt and to Lusaka where the debt-ridden government is trying to
extract bigger royalties from the mining companies.
AFRICAN ECONOMIES: Continent-wide Free Trade pact
starts but faces key tests on the ground as multiple non-tariff
barriers remain
At last the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
comes into force on Thursday (6 June) but there are plenty of obstacles
in the way of an upsurge in commerce across the region.
Getting the agreement to ratification is a victory, although Nigeria
– Africa's largest economy – is still not a signatory to the pact.
Nigeria's Trade Minister Okechukwu Enelamah has said
his country will sign, but President Muhammadu Buhari
has yet to set a date.
Intra-African trade still amounts to only about 18% of the
total trade conducted by African countries. By comparison, in the
European Union – on which the African Union is modelled – internal
trade between the 28 member states is 70%.
Under the existing regional economic communities governments
have frequently ignored provisions on tariff-free trade to protect
critical industries. These trade blocs have failed to eliminate most
customs costs, let alone the 'behind the border' costs that are the
main barriers to modern trade. The European Commission is helping to
finance the AU's technical teams who will draw up the regulations and
implementing measures. They say that AfCFTA will take at least a decade
before it becomes a reality that can drive a trade boom across the
region.
SUDAN: Rapid Support Forces militia massacre civilians
and break up protests in Khartoum while army fails to act
Over a hundred fighters from the state-backed Rapid
Support Forces (RSF) militia stormed the sit-in outside the military
headquarters in Khartoum at around 04.00 this morning (3 June), firing
live ammunition and tear gas and beating men, women and children with
rifles and sticks. Within an hour, hundreds more heavily-armed fighters
arrived on the RSF's distinctive dark green pick-up trucks.
The attack could block further negotiations over a
transitional government between civilians and the military. It may also
have been an attempt to pre-empt a rally of a million people at the
main protest site to celebrate Eid (end of Ramadan) this week.
At least nine people were killed in the first round of
attacks. Protestors told Africa Confidential that the
fighters were telling them: 'You are calling us the Janjaweed.
Yes, we are the Janjaweed.' This is a reference to the RSF's
origins as a militia hired by the government in Darfur to suppress
opposition there 15 years ago.
Last week, RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo
'Hemeti', seen as the most powerful man in the junta, had
warned that his forces would have to 'restore order' around the protest
site. A senior army officer, General Bahar Ahmed al Bahar,
said the protest site had 'become unsafe' and threatened national
security. While the army played no role in today's attacks it did
nothing to protect the protestors either.
In response, the Sudan Professionals'
Association, which has coordinated national protests since last
December, has called for a general strike. Protestors are regrouping in
the city of Omdurman across the Nile, where many opposition parties
have their headquarters.
Kenya: World Bank loan
Despite growing disquiet about his government's appetite
for new debt, Uhuru Kenyatta's government has
borrowed another $750 million, this time from the World Bank. The loan,
which follows last month's $2.1 billion Eurobond issue, was requested
by Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich in March.
Rotich has conceded that the funds, from the Bank's new
Development Policy Financing scheme, will constitute 'budget support'
for Uhuru's 'Big Four' agenda of affordable housing, food security,
healthcare and manufacturing. It will also be used to pay for the
government's new national ID card scheme Huduma Namba, which
is coming under growing commercial and political criticism.
While the country's increasing debt burden is causing
consternation among domestic analysts and activists, there is little
sign yet that financial markets are perturbed by the level of Kenya's
debt service. Lending to the Kenyatta government remains good business
for them.
Congo-Kinshasa: President Tshisekedi turns his
father's funeral to his diplomatic advantage
Two years after his death in Brussels, the body of veteran
opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi finally came
home to a state funeral attended by Rwandan and Angolan Presidents Paul Kagame and João Lourenço.
It was an opportunity for President Félix Tshisekedi to boost his standing with the opposition movement that his father had
pioneered.
The funeral, attended by tens of thousands at the Martyrs'
stadium in Kinshasa, was a victory for President Tshisekedi, whose
predecessor Joseph Kabila had long resisted the
return of the body to Congo-K.
The presence of Kagame was significant, following years of
conflict between Kigali and Kinshasa. Facing worsening disputes with Burundi,
Tanzania and Uganda, Kagame
seized the opportunity to take to the regional stage. In his lifetime,
Etienne Tshisekedi had been one of the fiercest critics of
Rwanda's interventions in Congo.
Zambia: Vedanta pushes back against government
take-over attempt
The row between President Edgar Lungu's
government and mining conglomerate Vedanta is escalating, with the
company taking the government to international arbitration, in the wake
of Vedanta executives being locked out of the Konkola Copper Mines
facility. Zambia has already appointed a provisional
liquidator. Lungu's attempt at resource nationalism may be bearing
fruit. Vedanta's Chairman Anil Agarwal has said that
his firm was seeking to comply with Zambia's new, higher tax regime.
Many see Lungu's move as a tactic to extract more revenue from mining
firms.
Vedanta says the government has given assurances that it has
not entered into any agreements to sell KCM to other investors.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN BRIEF
NIGERIA: Securities & Exchange Commission
sends interim management to Oando after suspending its directors
TUNISIA: Prime Minister Chahed to lead secular Tahya Tounes party ahead of presidential and
parliamentary elections
ALGERIA: Protestors call for exit of
President Bensalah after regime cancels elections due
on 4 July
SENEGAL: BP under fire for payments in oil
deal to Frank Timis and politicians in Dakar
