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The Africa Confidential Blog
ALGERIA: Big questions about the shape of the transition as Bouteflika prepares to depart
Patrick Smith
This week our correspondents file from the slow-motion exit of
President Bouteflika in Algiers, the chances of a
long-awaited cabinet reshuffle in Nairobi, news about more ambitious
borrowing and spending plans from the re-elected President Buhari in Abuja and a tough choice between power cuts or a sharp hike to
electricity prices in Zimbabwe.
ALGERIA: Big questions about the shape of the transition
as Bouteflika prepares to depart
After the military establishment finally added its voice to the calls
by hundreds of thousands of demonstrators for ailing President
Abdelaziz Bouteflika to step down, activists and mainstream politicians
are preparing for the next contest: how to organise the transition.
Although top officials in Algiers have been briefing journalists that
Bouteflika is about to step down, they have been less forthcoming about
who or what might replace him, and with what policy agenda. Some of
them have suggested a national conference to draw up a new constitution
ahead of elections by the end of the year. Today (1 April), state media
announced that Bouteflika would leave office by 28 April.
That would depend on a degree of trust and consensus that has been
lacking so far in this political crisis. Bouteflika has already named a
caretaker cabinet, with the central bank governor Mohamed
Loukal being appointed as interim finance minister.
Prime minister Noureddine Bedoui is to lead the new
cabinet. General Ahmed Gaïd Salah, the regime
loyalist who last week called for Bouteflika to step down, is to stay
on as deputy defence minister. One of the most
internationally-experienced politicians, Ramtane Lamamra,
has stepped down as foreign minister, a post he had held for less than
a month.
KENYA: New graft scandal threatens to divide Jubilee
President Uhuru Kenyatta's planned headlining of his
anti-corruption campaign in his state of the nation speech could worsen
tensions in the ruling party.
The rumbling scandal over the contracts to build the Arror and
Kimwarer dams is likely to surface when Kenyatta makes his address on
Thursday (4 April). This focus on the scandal, which many have
interpreted as an attack on the allies of Deputy President William
Ruto, could include an announcement that some of the top
officials questioned by police will have to step down pending
completion of the probe.
Kenyatta could also use a long-awaited government reshuffle to remove
other officials linked to the dam scandal. Investigations centre on 21
billion shillings ($200 million) paid to a cash-strapped Italian
firm, CMC di Ravenna, as part of a tender to build two dams in
Elgeyo-Marakwet County, in the Rift Valley. That work has never begun.
The scandal goes to the heart of two of Kenyatta's second-term
priorities: infrastructure projects lie at the heart of his 'Big Four'
agenda, and the President has angrily defended his record on tackling
graft.
Anti-graft has divided the ruling Jubilee party. Opposition leader Raila
Odinga, given a hybrid government role last year, is
exploiting the campaign to undermine Ruto. Supporters of Ruto's
campaign for the presidency in 2021 are hitting back, testing the
coherence of the ruling party to the limit.
NIGERIA: Still celebrating his re-election, President
Buhari seeks cheaper money for his infrastructure spending plan
Conscious of the sharply rising cost of debt-servicing, the government
is to widen the scope of its financing operations to borrow more from
the World Bank and other development institutions that offer loans at
below commercial terms. Buhari's ministers are to spell out the details
of the $20 billion plan to invest in infrastructure over the next
decade. Most of the contracts will be awarded early in Buhari's second
term.
The scale of the plan would give the economy a much-needed boost as it
slowly recovers from the 2016 recession. It chimes with the medium-term
growth and diversification plan announced by Vice-President Yemi
Osinbajo two years ago. Progress on the plan has been stymied
by the lack of funds.
The ten-year spending plan will be part financed by an infrastructure
bond to be launched later this year, says Finance Minister Zainab
Ahmed. Buhari's 2019 budget, which still has to win approval
in the National Assembly, includes 1.65 trillion naira ($4.6 bn) of new
borrowing. It's unclear how much of that will be raised on the
international markets.
ZIMBABWE: Plan to raise electricity prices risks new
protests as surrogate currency falls further against the US dollar
A proposal from Zimbabwe's state power company to raise electricity
tariffs by 30% is set to generate fierce debate within the government. Patrick
Chivaura, acting chief of the power company, said there would
be more power cuts if the government regulator refused to sanction the
price increase.
The decision will come down to politics as much as finance. More
cautious ministers fear the political consequences at a time when
Zimbabweans are trying to adjust to rising prices caused by the
continuing devaluation of the country's surrogate currency. It is also
the weakening currency that has been pushing up the costs of coal and
diesel to run the country's power stations.
When the government tripled fuel prices at the beginning of the year,
it triggered mass demonstrations in the country's cities with several
protesters being killed in clashes with security forces.
In February, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe conceded that its surrogate
currency, variously known as bond notes, electronic or RTG dollars,
were not trading at parity with the US dollar. It has devalued the
official rate for the national currency to 3 for a US dollar, which
still implies a currency subsidy. Bond notes still trade at around 25
cents on the parallel market.
Dollars worth $45m have been traded on the parallel market in recent
weeks. Reserve Bank governor John Mangudya's plan to
set up an interbank foreign exchange market set up to price the bond
notes has received a sceptical response thus far.
