confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
Kabila silent on Congo's choices
Blue Lines
How seriously to take the 12 June statement by Bruno Tshibala,
Congo-Kinshasa's Prime
Minister, that President Joseph Kabila will not
seek a third term in elections due in December? Such announcements
might deflect foreign pressure on Kabila to leave power in
December.
Unfortunately for Monsieur Tshibala, his word is not law in
Kinshasa. He serves at the pleasure of President Kabila but now wants
to run for the top job.
Kabila may have promised Tshibala that he won't stand but his
actions indicate otherwise. His own ruling alliance in parliament has
named Kabila as its 'moral authority' which suggests that he will
either be its candidate in the elections or decide who is. Across the
country, posters appear lauding Kabila's achievements: they look
suspiciously like election posters.
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The Kabila government's success in pushing through higher taxes
and royalties on the mining companies (see Feature, Making the miners
sweat) has boosted its
popularity. Some in Kinshasa say that Kabila will back his close ally,
Albert Yuma, Chairman of the
state mining company Gécamines,
for the
presidency but retain heavy political influence.
Kabila may be encouraged by the state of the opposition. The
release of veteran politician Jean-Pierre
Bemba by the International
Criminal Court on 13 June allows him to run for the presidency, further
dividing an opposition torn between support for Félix Tshisekedi and
the former governor of Katanga, Moïse
Katumbi.
