confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
MORE TALK THAN DEALS FOR AFRICA AT UN SUMMIT: Small concessions for continent's diplomats at climate change summit and meetings on security and development goals
Patrick Smith
As many of the African delegations leave the UN's summit in
New York – some are preparing for the IMF and World Bank's annual
meeting in Washington DC in two weeks' time – officials are assessing
the wins and losses. Egypt's President returns to
face deepening opposition at home, despite some high-profile UN
summiteering and the timetable to fix South Africa's
power company gets more urgent. And Kenya's
Deputy President William Ruto is pushing hard to
upset the political balance between President Uhuru Kenyatta and ex-oppositionist Raila Odinga.
MORE TALK THAN DEALS FOR AFRICA AT UN SUMMIT: Small
concessions for continent's diplomats at climate change summit and
meetings on security and development goals
The flotilla of African delegations to the UN General
Assembly summit won some small tactical victories on funding for
climate change adaptation and security crises but no big wins on
development finance and better representation for African officials
within the international system.
That lessens the prospect of a breakthrough in the next
international climate change policy conference in December, nor can
countries such as South Africa and Morocco expect to
win an exponential boost to finance for their radical new green economy
plans. It was Akinwumi Adesina, President of the
African Development Bank, who took the lead on calling for more backing
for Africa's green new deal, eclipsing the formal negotiating team led
by Gabon's ailing President Ali Ben Bongo
Ondimba.
However, the climate change debate in New York last week shows
that a growing number of African governments are looking for ways to
monetise their countries' rich biodiversity, speaking out on the
financial – and sometimes political – pressures to cut down hundreds of
thousands of hectares of virgin rainforest.
It was Angola's President Joaõ
Lourenço who seized the New York summit to set out his stall –
for investment –despite the massive financial losses incurred by the
state over the past two decades. Strong on commitments to reform and
following an IMF programme, Lourenço had little to say about how his
government intends to recover what many economists reckon is over $100
billion in revenues stolen from Angola since 2002.
Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el Sisi arrived
in New York just as protests in Cairo and Alexandria had started
against him – the most serious mobilisation that the country has seen
since 2013 – suggesting that this disparate band of oppositionists had
support among some junior officers at least.
A meeting with United States President
Donald Trump seems to have shored up El Sisi for now, such is
the importance of Washington's political and financial support for
Egypt's military industrial complex. But the broader campaign against
El Sisi's rule shows no signs of going away.
Kenya and Djibouti spent much of the UN
summit marking out territory in the campaign for a two-year seat on the
United Nations Security Council.
Kenya should be the favourite for the non-permanent seat,
having secured support by 37-13 to be the African Union's official
nominee at a meeting of the Permanent Representatives Committee in late
August. But Djibouti won't stand down.
A meeting between Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and
Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh, brokered by
El Sisi (this year's chair of the African Union) on the margins of the
summit, failed to break the impasse.
Djibouti, which hosts military bases for several NATO members
as well as China, Russia and the United
Arab Emirates points to Nairobi's dispute with Somalia over its maritime border as proof that it cannot be trusted on regional
security.
BACK TO A DIVIDED EGYPT: Supporters
of Sisi bus in demonstrators to counter the growing but factionalised
opposition movements
President Abdel Fattah el Sisi returned from the UN
General Assembly in New York to stage-managed rallies of supporters on
the streets of Cairo. The rallies were given lavish coverage by
Egyptian TV and untouched by the police, in stark comparison to the
crackdown after last weekend's anti-Sisi protests. Close to 2,000
arrests were made in the clampdown on 21-22 September.
But some security sources say the military has been restrained
in its response, partly for public relations reasons and partly to hold
the military together.
The regime's relentless publicity efforts shows protests, and
recent accusations of corruption made by Mohamed Ali,
a former contractor to the military, have rattled the regime.
SOUTH AFRICA'S POWER COMPANY CRUNCH: Minister
Gordhan to announce Eskom new chief executive and rescue plan over the
next month
Key decisions on the future of troubled energy
parastatal Eskom are coming up: 31 October is the deadline for the
announcement of a new CEO. Public Enterprises Minister Pravin
Gordhan is to announce a rescue plan for Eskom, to restructure
its R450 billion (US$29 billion) debt burden within the coming weeks.
Insider reports suggest that former CEO Jacob Maroga and Andy Calitz, formerly of Royal Dutch
Shell and LNG Canada, are two of the three
short-listed candidates, although the process is shrouded in secrecy.
QUESTIONS ON KENYA'S HANDSHAKE HOPES: Cracks
in the handshake pact
Some cracks are emerging in the 'handshake' pact between
President Uhuru Kenyatta and erstwhile opposition leader Raila Odinga.
The report by the Building Bridges Initiative, with proposals for
radical new policies, is due for release in the coming weeks. Insiders,
including Africa Confidential's correspondent, have seen a
draft of the proposals and reckons they will provoke fierce opposition.
Odinga wants a referendum that could back constitutional
changes to distribute positions at the top of government to reflect the
country's ethnic diversity. Its opponents, led by Deputy President
William Ruto, want to strangle it at birth. Ruto questions why so much
time should be afforded to the 'losers' of elections: a dig at Odinga.
A referendum could take place in mid-2020 and would be
regarded as a test run for the next presidential election in 2022.
Yet President Kenyatta may fear that a referendum could take
six months, distracting the government from its legacy projects – the
so-called 'Big Four' agenda.
Meanwhile Ruto has set his sights on Jubilee winning Odinga's
old Kibra constituency in Nairobi in a by-election in November. Last
week's endorsement by Kenyatta of soccer star McDonald Mariga to run on the Jubilee ticket in Kibra worries Odinga's Orange
Democratic Movement, presaging a return to party political hostilities.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN BRIEF
FRESH PROTEST WAVE IN ALGERIA: Unimpressed by
trials and jailing of former officials, oppositionists return to the
streets en masse demanding freedom for rights campaigners and free
elections
SENEGAL'S PRESIDENT FREES POLITICAL OPPONENT: Accusations of a political fix after Macky Sall pardons leading challenger Khalifa Sall, the popular
former mayor of Dakar, six months after presidential election
ROYAL DIPLOMACY IN ANGOLA: Meeting between
President Joaõ Lourenço and Britain's Prince Harry
may boost Luanda's chances of joining Commonwealth, alongside Mozambique
MOZAMBIQUE EYES TAX BONANZA: Maputo aims for
$880 million in capital gains tax after US's Anadarko sells to France's
Total, lead operator in a multibillion dollar gas export project
CELLPHONE WOES IN TANZANIA AND ZAMBIA: Lusaka
cancels licences for Vodafone and its local affiliate as Vodacom Tanzania issues profits warning after regulators tell it to register all SIM
cards before end of 2019
