confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
NIGERIA/EUROPEAN UNION: Buhari promises consolidation in his second term but faces chorus of criticism on political shortcomings and security crises
Patrick Smith
This week we start in Abuja with President Muhammadu
Buhari's goals for his second term which look much like the
ones for his first term. And then to East Africa where a temporary
reopening of a key crossing point between Rwanda and Uganda has done little to build confidence. Still in East Africa, President John
Magufuli mixes bullish forecasts for the economy with a
bulldozer-like strategy towards the opposition. And then in West
Africa, cooperation between Ghana and Côte
d'Ivoire is showing positive results as they use their
producers' strength to take on the international cocoa market.
NIGERIA/EUROPEAN UNION: Buhari
promises consolidation in his second term but faces chorus
of criticism on political shortcomings and security crises
With his counterparts from Ghana, Rwanda, Senegal,
and Zimbabwe in attendance, President Muhammadu
Buhari celebrated Democracy Day on 12 June as the effective start of
his second term. It would be a period of consolidating growth, economic
restructuring and fighting corruption, said Buhari. He says he wanted
to lay the foundations for taking 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in the next decade.
Yet the data is currently pointing in the opposite direction.
Economic growth per capita is shrinking, the jobless figures are rising
and conditions for most of the country's 200 million people are getting
tougher.
All the data shows the government is still struggling to turn
around the economy, to boost farm production and diversify away from
dependence on oil exports. This is despite the government's impressive
team of technocrats in the key economic ministries and an agreed
medium-term strategy.
Some blame a hollowed out civil service and a lack of a strong
middle management in the public service. Others think that a
ministerial reshuffle could change the dynamic.
Buhari is yet to name any of his new ministerial team;
meanwhile the incumbents are continuing in their posts and there are
likely to be several holdovers from his first term.
The first changes may be announced at the beginning of July
when the new National Assembly starts sitting with the new leaders of
the Senate and the House of Representatives. There is growing
pressure for a wide-ranging shake up in the ministries of defence and
internal affairs, as well as the command structure in the armed forces
in the wake of a series of deadly attacks on civilians and security
installations by fighters from Boko Haram and the Islamic
State West Africa Province.
There will also be renewed pressure for political reform in
the wake of a damning report on this year's elections by the European
Union. Its election observers identified 'systemic failings' marked by
operational and transparency shortcomings, security problems and low
turnout in the presidential, parliamentary and governorship vote.
'Fundamental electoral reform' was needed 'to allow time for
debate, legislative changes and implementation well in advance of the
next elections,' said EU chief observer Marie Arena,
a Belgian Socialist MEP.
RWANDA/UGANDA: The political row
behind the border closure is starting to change regional trading
patterns
Despite an announcement by President Paul Kagame's
government on 10 June re-opening the Gatuna border (known as Katuna on
the Uganda side) for 12 days, there has been no resolution of its
political dispute with President Yoweri Museveni's
government. The crisis is blocking one of the main trade arteries in
East Africa.
The two leaders met in South Africa last month, where they sat
next to each other for Cyril Ramaphosa's presidential
inauguration but there has been no movement on the main gripes between
their governments or signs of follow-up discussions.
Shortly after re-opening the border, Rwanda paraded 20 of its
citizens who it said had been illegally detained in Uganda and had been
deported by road to the border.
Observers say that Gatuna/Katuna, once one of the busiest
crossing points and trade hubs in the region, is now a ghost town.
The causes of the dispute are political – Kagame and Museveni
trade accusations of destabilisation – but its main side effects are
economic. Ugandan traders have been advised by their government to seek
alternative markets in South Sudan, Tanzania and Congo-Kinshasa to compensate for the loss of the
Rwandan market.
Rwanda is following a similar path, signing agreements on
cross-border trade, aviation and elimination of non-tariff barriers
with Congo-K and holding a private sector bilateral investment forum
with Tanzania.
TANZANIA: Cracking down on
dissidents, President Magufuli ploughs on with state-led economic
growth strategy
On Thursday, (20 June) Finance Minister Philip
Mpango is due to unveil his budget plans in detail but has
already outlined measures that will include 2.3 trillion shillings
(US$1billion) of new commercial borrowing and predicts the economy will
grow at 7.1% next year. That would make it one of Africa's fastest
expanding economies. However, the IMF is far less bullish, forecasting
growth levels at just over 4%.
At the same time the political climate has become far harsher.
Leading opposition politician Zitto Kabwe of the
Alliance for Change and Transparency reported on social media that he
had been detained by immigration officials last Tuesday (11 June) as he
tried to leave the country, and accused of publishing false information
under the media services act. Kabwe added that he has been banned from
foreign travel.
Oppositionists and civic activists say that Magufuli is
seeking to crush them via repeated arrests, crackdowns on public
meetings and intimidation ahead of next year's presidential elections.
Tundu Lissu, the MP for the opposition
Chadema party who narrowly survived an assassination attempt linked to
the regime, plans to return to Tanzania in early September. Whether he
will be allowed to re-enter the country will be the next test for
Magufuli's increasingly intolerant regime.
GHANA/CÔTE D'IVOIRE: New
collaboration between Africa's two biggest cocoa producers tries to
strengthen bargaining power and push up prices
The governments of Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire have long
sought to establish what they called 'Choc-pec' – some sort of market
cooperation through which they could defend the price of their cocoa
crops. The two countries, which produce nearly two-thirds of the
world's cocoa production, have been stepping up efforts to boost local
processing of the beans, and to get a better price for beans sold on
the terminal markets in Europe.
Last week they suspended sales of their cocoa crop for the
2020/21 season. The move, which followed a demand for a minimum $2,600
per tonne price, quickly hit cocoa futures, pushing up prices by almost
10% to $2,550 – their highest level since July 2018.
The two governments are seeking a better deal for existing
farmers as well as to encourage younger farmers to move into the
business and attract fresh investment. It is unclear whether the market
reaction is merely temporary, but it will encourage both governments to
double down ahead of talks with the industry.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN BRIEF
EGYPT: Death of former President Mohammed
Mursi in Cairo courtroom will reinforce criticism of the El-Sisi government's rights record
SUDAN: Junta brings ousted leader El
Beshir to court on corruption charges but makes no concessions
to restart talks about handover to civil rule
ALGERIA: Former premier Ahmed
Ouyahia back in court to face second round of corruption
charges while protestors keep up the pressure for free elections
SWITZERLAND/UNITED KINGDOM: Metalor,
the giant Swiss-based refinery company, will no
longer accept gold from artisanal gold miners citing compliance concerns