confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
NIGERIA: Ekiti governorship poll is vital test of strength for APC as President Buhari's record is questioned
Patrick Smith
This week we start with the critical governorship election in
Ekiti State, Nigeria, and then to the United Nations
which has published an important new report on migration trends within
Africa. We also look at the claims of the power of the pro-Zuma clans within the South African government and ask why
Kenya's anti-graft drive seems to have shifted
gear.
NIGERIA: Ekiti governorship poll is vital test of
strength for APC as President Buhari's record is questioned
Whether it was a rogue policeman or a would-be assassin,
a volley of gunfire at candidate Kayode Fayemi and
his entourage got the governorship elections in Ekiti State off to an
ominous start. An officer who was said to have fired accidentally was
later arrested, said a police spokesman.
The incident will focus attention on the 14 July governorship
poll in Ekiti, which has one of the highest rates of educational
attainment despite receiving one of the lowest levels of central
government grant. The contest, which puts former Mines Minister Fayemi
of the governing All Progressives' Congress against current Deputy
Governor Kola Olusola of the opposition People's
Democratic Party, will be a trial of strength between the two main
parties with less than nine months before national elections.
The fight looks personal. Fayemi served one term as governor
having fought a tortuous legal battle for several years, involving
carefully collected forensic evidence, to overturn claimed victories by
his PDP opponents. With a doctorate on international security
institutions, Fayemi cast himself as a moderniser with allies such as
Power Minister Babatunde Fashola. President Buhari is
said to have personally encouraged Fayemi to run; the top brass of the
APC are due to show up in Ekiti to back their candidate. That raises
the stakes still further.
In contrast, outgoing governor Ayo Fayose is
a populist and outspoken critic of President Buhari. He is also a
relentless campaigner; much given to stopping his entourage on the road
to meet and greet people, sometimes buying them lunch from local
hawkers.
However, many of the civil servants in the state haven't been
paid for the past eight months, a reality that challenges Fayose's
claims to be a man of the people.
At the same time, Fayemi will have to defend the performance
of the Buhari government, which has come under heavy attack in two
recent opinion polls, one by NOI polls and the other by the Centre for
Democracy and Development.
Both polls reported that less than a third of respondents
thought Buhari was doing a good job on the economy, security or
corruption. Disregarding such concerns, Buhari marked his three years
in power with a national broadcast asserting there had been substantial
progress against Boko Haram and against corruption while the
government had launched the biggest infrastructure investment programme
the country had ever seen.
AFRICA/UN: Migration within Africa strengthens
economies and skills, says new UN trade study
As debate over migration polarises European politics,
the issue is well down the list of priorities for African electorates.
Yet in terms of total numbers and as a percentage of the host
population, migrants are far bigger factor in most African countries
than in their European counterparts.
A new study by UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
points to the practical gains from intra-Africa migration. It reports
that 19 million people moved from one African country to another last
year. About 17 million people left the continent and another five
million came to live in Africa from other regions.
So far, the population shifts within Africa have been broadly
positive, boosting skills levels and regional investment, according to
UNCTAD. But the report's authors argue that such demographic shifts
will require more economic planning to promote growth and
diversification. To date, the only country where there have been
widespread protests against migration has been South Africa under
President Jacob Zuma's government.
SOUTH AFRICA: As his trial for corruption resumes,
Jacob Zuma casts a long shadow over the Ramaphosa government
Former President Zuma still wields formidable political
influence through tight-knit groups of top office-holders and
intelligence agents. After heading various security organisations in
the African National Congress during its exile years, Zuma has built up
substantial grassroots loyalty which persists after his forced
resignation as President.
Those loyalists will be put to the test when Zuma's trial for
grand corruption linked to the country's US$6 billion arms procurement
scandal resumes on Friday (8 June). At the initial hearing in
KwaZulu-Natal, thousands of his supporters made a show of strength
outside the court.
On Sunday (3 June), Minister of Transport Blade
Nzimande claimed that Zuma has been working behind the scenes
in the last few months to undermine the government's efforts to
dismantle the corrupt networks that took over institutions such as the
South African Revenue Service, Eskom and the National Prosecuting
Authority.
Last month, Zuma publicly denied that he was planning to
launch an alternative party to the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal. Meanwhile, the
government said it would intensify efforts to pursue Zuma's business
allies, the Gupta family, who are said to have relocated their
commercial headquarters to Dubai.
KENYA: Alarms on debt and accountability grow louder
as officials scrutinise state institutions
The war on graft is finally on in Nairobi – at least,
that's the official message. Five years ago, President Uhuru
Kenyatta pledged to eliminate the corruption scourge from
state institutions. He has been widely criticised for failing to follow
through on that pledge. Since last year's disputed elections – and the
celebrated handshake between Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila
Odinga – the anti-corruption sleuths have been getting more
active. In the week ending 2 June, over 20 officials and business
people were charged for their role in the diversion of US$100 million
in state funds.
Activist groups are now calling for investigations into the
costings and contracts for big infrastructure projects such as the
Nairobi-Mombasa railway and several of the road projects linking
Nairobi to the hinterland.
This week, the government has launched a fresh round of
vetting of the senior officials running the anti-corruption and revenue
agencies, ostensibly to improve their efficiency. Some sceptics suggest
the vetting might also be about ascertaining the officials' political
loyalties.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN VERY BRIEF
EGYPT: Opposition parties sound warnings on
public service cuts and price rises as President El Sisi starts second term
FRANCE/LIBYA: After meeting President Macron,
Libyan politicians back presidential and
parliamentary elections by 10 December
ETHIOPIA: Premier Abiy's government ends the
state of emergency that helped drive his predecessor from power
