confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
SIERRA LEONE: More heavy rain forecast this week after over 500 killed and missing in Freetown landslide
Patrick Smith
We start in Freetown where rescue workers are trying to
prevent more loss of life with renewed downpours expected this week and
in Abuja, President Muhammadu Buhari is back on-seat
and addressing the country on security matters. In Angola,
the MPLA, headed by presidential candidate João Lourenço,
is set to cruise to victory on Wednesday (23 August) against a weak
opposition; the turnout may give a clearer idea about sentiment on the
ground. Still on elections, opposition leader Raila Odinga
submitted his election petition to the Supreme Court but insiders
expect it will fail. Lastly, after a week of speculation about the
possibility of Grace Mugabe being charged with
assaulting a model in a Johannesburg hotel, the South African
government gave her diplomatic immunity. Business sources claim there
was a behind-the-scenes deal over landing rights for the two country's
airlines.
SIERRA LEONE: More heavy rain forecast this week after
over 500 killed and missing in Freetown landslide
Officials and volunteers are mapping out the most
vulnerable areas around Freetown amid fears there could be another
devastating landslide this week with deluges forecast for tomorrow
(Tuesday 22 August) and Wednesday.
Seneh Dumbuya, the chief coroner in Freetown,
told Reuters news agency yesterday (20 August) that rescue workers have
brought out 499 bodies since the landslide at Mount Sugar Loaf on 14
August. Locals say another 600 people are still missing; some people
trapped by rubble and mud in air pockets have been able to send text
messages. The biggest risks now are that a fresh deluge could trigger
another landslide, and that cholera could spread because of the
shortage of clean water. Environmentalists say unregulated logging
in the hills outside the capital and an absence of buildings regulation
are to blame for the severity of the disaster.
NIGERIA: Buhari's dawn broadcast promises harder line
on Biafran separatists and Islamist insurgents
After a day back in Abuja, a revived-looking President
Muhammadu Buhari, who has spent most of this year receiving medical
treatment in London, made a fiery televised address to the nation
promising more determined action against Boko Haram. He
added that attempts by citizens in the south-east of Nigeria
to secede – a repeat of the calls that triggered the Biafran civil war
in the 1960s – were a red line that no political organisation could be
permitted to cross.
Although Buhari repeated the government's position that
Nigeria's national unity isn't negotiable, he indicated that he would
be open to a dialogue with secessionist groups. 'Every group has a
grievance. But the beauty and attraction of a federation is that it
allows different groups to air their grievances and work out a mode of
co-existence,' he said.
ANGOLA: MPLA's João Lourenço pledges sweeping economic
reforms ahead of 23 August presidential election
With his victory assured in this week's presidential
elections, the MPLA's candidate João Lourenço offers a programme to
restructure the oil-dependent economy and reiterates his commitment to
crack down on state and corporate corruption.
Although those pledges ring hollow to the many Angolans who
point out that little progress has been made on those issues during the
MPLA's four decades in power, opposition parties are unlikely to make
much headway in the elections. The biggest opposition party, UNITA, has
been missing in action although one of its former militants, Abel
Chivukuvuku, the candidate of Casa-CE, has been leading a much
livelier campaign and winning over some in the coastal cities
as well as the opposition redoubt of Huambo.
KENYA: Little prospect for success
of opposition election petition in fast-track High Court case
Seven Supreme Court judges must rule on opposition
leader Raila Odinga's petition to overturn the victory of President Uhuru
Kenyatta in the 8 August elections. Insiders say the
opposition's petition has far less detailed information than the
complaint about the disputed 2013 elections which the Court rejected.
Kenya's courts do not countenance the sort of lengthy legal
argumentation and demand for data sets from the electoral commission
that was a feature of the opposition petition in Ghana
in 2012. The Ghana courts took eight months to consider – and
ultimately reject – the petition. But the process did give the
opposition a forensic knowledge and understanding of the electoral
reporting system, which it used to great effect in last year's
elections.
Odinga submitted the petition last Friday (18 August), having
earlier said he would prefer to mobilise his supporters against what he
insists is a stolen election rather than engage with the judiciary.
'Our decision to go to court constitutes a second chance for the
Supreme Court.' It can, he added, '…redeem itself, or like in 2013,
compound the problems we face as a country.'
ZIMBABWE/SOUTH AFRICA: Did a deal over landing rights
help Grace Mugabe get diplomatic immunity after facing prosecution for
assault?
After internal argument in the government, South
Africa's Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane,
confirmed that President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe's
wife, Grace, was being granted diplomatic immunity following calls for
her to face criminal charges over allegations that she beat up a young
model in a Johannesburg hotel last week.
Some insiders are linking the decision to a sudden resolution
in a dispute over landing rights between the national airlines of South
Africa and Zimbabwe. After both airlines had to ground their flights on
the busy Johannesburg to Harare route due to a row over operating
permits, South African Airways resumed its flights to Zimbabwe just
hours after Grace Mugabe's departure late on Saturday (19 August).
IN VERY BRIEF
ZAMBIA: In a dramatic climbdown, government
releases opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema and
drops all charges
MALI: President Keïta
withdraws plans for constitutional reform devolution
TOGO: Opposition demonstrates in Lomé against
50 years of the Eyadéma dynasty
