confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
SOUTH AFRICA: Voters to judge Ramaphosa's credibility on jobs, anti-graft and curbing inequality
Patrick Smith
This week, South Africa prepares for
landmark elections on 8 May and Sudan edges towards a
power-sharing transitional government. There is another alert in Tanzania after a critic of the President goes missing and another delay in the
plans for a national unity government in South Sudan.
Finally, a sacked British minister is accused of
harbouring plans for military interventions in Africa.
SOUTH AFRICA: Voters to judge
Ramaphosa's credibility on jobs, anti-graft and curbing inequality
The national elections on Wednesday (8 April) are a
vital test of President Cyril Ramaphosa's plans to
remodel his country's economy and clean up the mess left by his
predecessor.
Battered by the graft scandals of Jacob Zuma's
presidency and the failure of state bodies such as the national power
company Eskom, the African National Congress could record its worst
result in national polls since the end of Apartheid.
Many of Zuma's supporters have refused to campaign, hoping
that a poor performance for the ANC will give them an opportunity to
blame the party's woes on Ramaphosa, then grab back control of the
party leadership. Many of Zuma's people could face trial on corruption
charges and tougher disciplinary action should Ramaphosa secure a good
result for the ANC this week.
The picture is complicated by the resurgent Economic Freedom
Fighters under the leadership of Julius Malema, a
former President of the ANC Youth League who lambasts the ruling party
for doing nothing to cut economic and social inequalities.
In key regions such as Gauteng, which includes Johannesburg
and Pretoria, the combined forces of the EFF on the left and the
Democratic Alliance on the right could push the ANC vote to under 50%,
which would be a psychological blow for the ruling party.
To convince his party that he has the winning ticket,
Ramaphosa has to ensure the ANC wins over 56% of the votes this week –
that's the percentage that it got under Zuma in 2014.
SUDAN: Protestors braced as
revolutionary forces and military edge towards a deal on a transitional
authority
Negotiations on a new government, after the ousting of Omer
el Beshir on 10 April, are moving forward this week with
military officers and leaders of the Declaration for Freedom and Change
due to release their positions on the structure of an interim
government.
Beshir is now in Kobar maximum security prison, facing charges
of corruption and financing terrorism according the National
Prosecutions Agency. The Transitional Military Council has promised to
show sceptical journalists and activists some proof of Beshir's
detention.
Omer el Digair, leader of the opposition
Sudan Congress Party, has told Africa Confidential that a
provisional agreement on a transitional authority could be finalised by
the end of the week. Negotiations, he said, have been helped by a
committee of mediators which includes journalist Majoub Mohamed,
businessman Osama Daoud Abdelatif and activist Nasreddin
Salkami.
To break the deadlock, the mediators have proposed that the
ruling body, the sovereign national council, should have a majority of
civilians but there should also be a defence and security council with
seven military officers and three civilians, the prime minister, the
foreign minister and the finance minister.
Under the plan, the 17-strong council of ministers would all
be civilians, as would the legislative council consisting of some
120-150 members.
TANZANIA: President Magufuli's
crackdown against oppositionists takes ever more sinister track
A strong critic of President John Magufuli and an activist with the opposition Chadema, Mdude Nyagali was abducted by four gun-wielding men as he left his workplace in Mbozi
on the evening of 4 May, according to a statement by the party.
Witnesses report that he was screaming for help as he was bundled into
the cars. At the time of writing, his whereabouts was unknown.
Opposition MP Tundu Lissu is still
convalescing in Belgium after an assassination
attempt last September left him with multiple bullet wounds. Lissu
insists he will return home to contest elections in 2020. It is looking
unlikely that he and Chadema will be able overcome the legal obstacles,
let alone security threats, confronting them ahead of the polls.
SOUTH SUDAN: Despite papal
blessing, leaders delay formation of unity government
Once again South Sudan's leaders have chosen to stall
the establishment of a power-sharing government, the key part of the
peace deal they signed in September. Instead they are delaying it for
another six months.
This latest extension agreed will be signed off by the
Intergovernmental Authority on Development council of ministers'
meeting on 7 May in Juba.
Little progress has made been since the peace deal was struck
last year. Opposition leader Riek Machar – set to
resume a post as Vice-President in the new administration – complains
that security issues allowing him to return from exile in South Africa
have not been resolved. Machar is now said to be in Khartoum,
monitoring the political changes in Sudan.
President Salva Kiir, who separately
announced the lifting of a state of emergency in northern parts of
the country on Friday (3 May), wants to focus on what the joint
administration will look like.
Both sides are anxious to secure more international financing
despite reports of serial corruption and mismanagement. This latest
delay makes the prospect of a workable national unity government
involving both Salva and Riek still more improbable.
AFRICA/BRITAIN: Sacked minister
accused of harbouring rogue military plans in Africa
The defenestration of Gavin Williamson
from his position as Britain's Defence Secretary on 1 May for leaking
National Security Council briefings about the award of a 5G contract to
Chinese tech giant Huawei was sudden. The
aftermath has been bizarre.
Media in London reported a Ministry of Defence official
claiming that Williamson had been 'finding excuses' to deploy British
armed forces in Africa – the targets for Williamson's interventions
allegedly included Zimbabwe, Kenya,
Egypt and Nigeria. Williamson
has denied the claims, and says he is a victim of malicious briefing by
Prime Minister Theresa May's officials.
In the meantime, Williamson's sacking led to a minor reshuffle
of May's government. Penny Mordaunt takes over the
defence portfolio, while former Africa minister, Rory Stewart,
has taken her International Development brief.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN BRIEF
NIGERIA: Investors question market
prospects as debt servicing takes 66% of federal revenues and growth
and tax take remain sluggish.
CAMEROON: Government faces charges of
illegal detentions and torture of opponents by Human Rights Watch as
secession crisis deepens.
GABON: High Court rejects call for
medical exam of President Ali Bongo Ondimba to test
his fitness for office since his return to Libreville on 23 March.
BENIN: Soldiers patrol streets after
campaigners call for annulling of elections in which opposition was
excluded.
