confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
The week ahead in Africa: AFRICA'S POWER SUMMIT: Ramaphosa invites Buhari to Pretoria in October for trade and security talks and the inauguration of a bilateral commission
Patrick Smith
This week a Nigeria-South Africa
summit is in prospect, a new power-sharing government in Sudan,
and more mining rows. Also ahead, big protests loom in Zimbabwe,
opposition complaints about the election come to court in Malawi,
and yet more presidential contenders sign up in Tunisia.
AFRICA'S POWER SUMMIT: Ramaphosa
invites Buhari to Pretoria in October for trade and security talks and
the inauguration of a bilateral commission
After 25 years of lacklustre relations with Nigeria,
South Africa is turning on the charm with the offer of a grand state
visit to launch a raft of cooperation agreements and trade deals.
Security is high up the agenda, as is reform of the African Union and
the role of outside powers in regional conflicts.
President Muhammadu Buhari has accepted the
invitation and the summit is set for October, according to Abuja. In
September, Buhari will fly to New York for the UN General Assembly,
which Nigeria is to chair this year. The two country's presidential
teams are likely to meet there to finalise logistics and the agenda for
the summit, we hear.
Although Cyril Ramaphosa and Buhari are not
close, insiders say there is mutual respect and belief that the two
countries should be doing more together. It was Ramaphosa flying into
Abuja in July 2018 to meet Buhari that elicited a commitment from
Nigeria on the African Continental Free Trade Area. Nigeria signed the
AfCFTA this July.
Nigeria is the biggest economy in Africa. South Africa is the
second biggest but is the most industrialised on the continent. Yet
trade between the two countries – at about US$4 billion – is running
well under potential.
Nigeria wants South Africa to buy more of its crude oil, and
eventually petroleum products after the Dangote Group's 650,000
barrel-a-day refinery starts operations next year. Nigeria's film and
music industry is also raising its profile in South Africa.
There are also rumbling disputes about the Nigerian operations
of South African multinationals like MTN and Standard Bank over their
tax obligations and foreign exchange remittances.
Other South African companies, especially in the service
sector, have a patchy record in Nigeria. We hear that South Africa's
ailing arms industry will also be pitching its wares to Nigeria's
military this year.
MILITARY BUSINESS IN SUDAN: Ahead
of the launch of power-sharing government this week, the army has been
spreading its tentacles in the region
The new transitional government is due to start work on Sunday
(18 August) according to the schedule agreed by the military and the
Declaration of Freedom and Change Forces (DFCF) on 4 August (see Sudan Transition Timetable). Under the terms of
that deal, the military wants to keep a tight rein on all defence and
security matters, reserving those portfolios in the new council of
ministers, as well as nominating the new minister of interior.
Both sides are far apart on the military's overseas operations
as well as its grip on the national economy and state budget. As well
as sending at least 14,000 Sudanese soldiers and militia fighters to
the war in Yemen, the ruling generals have approved
the dispatch of at least 1,000 Sudanese to fight alongside Khalifa
Haftar's Eastern Libyan Command which is trying to overthrow
the UN-recognised government in Tripoli.
Sudan's role in the Libya war was part of an agreement signed
between the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed
Hamdan Dagalo, known as 'Hemeti' and Ari
Ben Menashe (AC Vol 60 No 16, Lobbyist
of last resort).
Now, UN investigators report that Hemeti's RSF has been
supplying weaponry and armoured vehicles to fighters linked to the Séléka
coalition in neighbouring Central African Republic. Nourredine
Adam, a militia leader in CAR, is said to have met Hemeti
several times in Khartoum this year.
The UN experts warn that the build-up of arms from Sudan and Chad
could scuttle the ceasefire agreement signed in Bangui in February.
COSTS OF RESOURCE NATIONALISM: Zambia's
mining industry suffers big hits but Tanzania scores a tactical win
Governments calculating how much revenue they can get
from the mining industry are watching policies and law suits in Dar es
Salaam and Lusaka.
In Tanzania, President John Magufuli's
resource nationalist policies, buttressed by some extravagant claims,
have secured better fiscal terms for the government, at least in the
short term. After his battle with gold miner Acacia over tax payments,
both sides held their position.
Then, the parent firm Barrick Gold bought out Acacia and
agreed a new tax and royalty settlement with the government. How long
that lasts might depend on the gold price. In Côte d'Ivoire,
run by a more pro-market President, Barrick wants to sell its Tongon
gold mine.
In Zambia, President Edgar Lungu
is trying out Magufuli's playbook with mixed results. Embroiled in a
dispute on revenues with Vedanta for months, Lungu's government has
started proceedings to liquidate the company's Konkola Copper Mines
subsidiary. Lungu is imposing tax hikes on other mining firms.
But some mining companies say that they may just walk away,
after a succession of mine shutdowns in Africa in recent months.
The mines ministry in Lusaka is urging Glencore subsidiary
Mopani Copper Mines to reconsider the closure of two shafts at its
Nkana site in the Copperbelt. Permanent Secretary Paul Chanda
says that Mopani could hand over the running of the shafts to local
contractors and avoid 1,400 job losses. Last month Glencore suspended
work at its cobalt mine in Congo-Kinshasa, which has
the biggest reserves of the metal in the world.
CHALLENGING MALAWI'S PRESIDENTIAL VOTE: After
leading a militant campaign questioning Mutharika's election victory,
opposition parties take their case to court
Almost three months after disputed polls which saw Peter
Mutharika narrowly re-elected as President, United
Transformation Movement leader Saulos Chilima and Malawi
Congress Party President Lazarus Chakwera get their
day in court.
Few think that they can overturn the result, although the case
could help electoral reforms. Mutharika wants to avoid appearing before
the court but has failed to have the case thrown out.
Although they mobilised their supporters impressively on the
streets, the challenge by Chakwera and Chilima has been disjointed. The
two defeated candidates filed separate petitions alleging
irregularities in the results management process, bribery and the use
of Tipp-ex correcting fluid to adjust vote tallies.
ZIMBABWE'S DISAPPEARING ECONOMY: Can
opposition protests win national support as shortages, inflation and
currency crisis worsen?
Compared to its counterparts in Algeria
and Sudan, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change has struggled
to mobilise mass support as economic woes deepen a year after President
Emmerson Mnangagwa's election.
The MDC has been planning a mass protest march on Friday (16
August) against mismanagement and corruption. Zimbabweans have been hit
by chronic shortages of bread and fuel as foreign exchange reserves dry
up, and power cuts of 18 hours at a time.
The government says its security forces are braced for action.
At two protests in the past year it has used live rounds, killing
several civilians. Home Affairs Minister Cain Mathema
claims foreign agent provocateurs are working with the MDC to
destabilise the country.
CROWDED RACE TO RUN TUNISIA: Almost
100 candidates to stand in presidential elections in September
Ranging from nationalist, populist to Islamist, 98
candidates filed their papers to stand in presidential elections on 15
September. Although many may withdraw before polling day.
Businessman and media mogul Nabil Karoui
tops the opinion polls, despite an indictment for money-laundering. The
field also includes Prime Minister Youssef Chahed,
and defence minister Abdelkarim Zbidi. Zbidi is the
insiders' favourite, as part of the late President Béji
Caïd Essebsi's inner circle.
Liberal former Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa and
Moncef Marzouki, who served as interim president for three
years after 2011, are standing, as is Mounir Baatour,
the first openly gay presidential candidate in a Muslim country.
The Islamist Ennahda party is putting up its first
presidential candidate since 2011, parliament's deputy speaker, Abdelfattah
Mourou.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN BRIEF
ETHIOPIA'S ELECTION SURPRISE: Abiy Ahmed
government insists there will be national elections next year despite
multiple doubts on organisation and security
REOPENING UGANDA'S FACTORIES: Museveni
government plans $800 million state-led plan to revive agricultural
processing and industries
CAMEROON HITS OPPOSITION: President Biya
gaols 41 opposition activists and signs multi-million dollar contract
with Washington lobbyists Clout Public Affairs
