In July 2018 Eritrea's President Issayas Afewerki had said Ethiopia would be able to use Assab port as part of their grand rapprochement...
Hassan Sheikh saw that Djibouti and Eritrea would be natural allies against the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal and quickly arranged meetings with Presidents Ismaïl Omar Guelleh and Issayas Afewerki...
It also reflects the mood after the multiple meetings attended by Burhan in November with regional leaders some of whom he was at loggerheads with: Kenya's William Ruto (14 November); Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed (on 15 November); Djibouti's Ismaïl Omar Guelleh and Eritrea's Issayas Aferwerki (26 November)...
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Emirati interestAbiy may also be doing the bidding of one of his key patrons the United Arab Emirates which previously had a deal with Eritrea's veteran autocrat Issayas Afewerki to run bombing missions into Yemen from Assab...
Djibouti was upset that Abiy was unhappy with the cost of using its port which provides Ethiopia with its current outlet to the sea and Asmara dismissed the speech saying Eritrean sovereignty was not negotiable even though as recently as July 2018 President Issayas Afewerki was saying the opposite promising that Assab once rehabilitated would be back in use for Ethiopia (AC Vol 59 No 5 Any port in a storm)...
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That could explain the presence in Riyadh of Eritrea's Issayas Afewerki and South Sudan's Salva Kiir in addition to regional heavyweights including Nigerian President Bola Tinubu Kenyan President William Ruto Rwanda's Paul Kagame and Ethiopian premier Abiy Ahmed...
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Eritrea's offer of support to Amhara nationalists seen as hugely provocative on the part of President Issayas Afewerki could reignite conflict between the Asmara and Addis Ababa governments (AC Vol 60 No 14 Asmara and Amhara)...
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And on 13 July Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el Sisi is planning to host yet another regional summit to which he has invited: South Sudan's Salva Kiir; Chad's Mahamat Idriss Déby 'Kaka'; Central African Republic's Faustin-Archange Touadéra; Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed; and Eritrea's Issayas Afewerki...
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In essence the Eritrean regime welcomes any conflict that weakens its neighbours and President Issayas Afewerki would certainly prefer Hemeti over Burhan...
Eritrea's President Issayas Afewerki is equally perturbed by the Pretoria pact and the disarmament of his Amhara allies...
Cairo may also choose to see how ties develop between Eritrea's President Issayas Afewerki and Abiy...
