Many of the efforts to broaden the support base of the regime of President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno (aka Mahamat 'Kaka') during last year's reconciliation exercise included genuine efforts at compromise and democratic reform...
Yet it hopes to win foreign acceptance with elections in 2024 and remain as strong an ally to France and the United States in the war against jihadism as was the regime of Mahamat Kaka's late father Idriss Déby Itno who was killed in April 2021 (AC Vol 62 No 9 Regional leaders pay homage to Déby at funeral summit)...
Mahamat Kaka initiated the Dialogue national inclusive et souverain (DNIS – National inclusive and sovereign dialogue) in Doha for armed opponents in exile and in Ndjamena for the domestic opposition...
But on 20 October those who had been denied a say and objected to Mahamat Kaka staying on as president and standing in the 2024 elections took to the streets...
Mahamat Kaka's relatives may not be happy with his new government but he can rely on the two most important security forces the Direction Générale des Services de Sécurité des Institutions de l'Etat (DGSSIE – the elite unit of the army similar to a presidential guard) and the Garde Nationale Nomade (GNNT)...
Moussa Faki tried to get the AU's Peace and Security Council to support sanctions against Mahamat Kaka to force political reform and make him keep his promise to step down at the end of the 'transition' but failed...
The AU chair could not even rally the presidents and Mahamat Kaka has now been endorsed by most regional heads of state including those of Niger Nigeria Congo-Brazzaville Congo-Kinshasa and Cameroon...
One of the strongest signs that Mahamat Kaka is here to stay although the outward forms of transition linger was his appointment of relatives and allies to key parastatals where they can capture lucrative rents...
Their fates are now irrevocably linked to Mahamat Kaka's own...
Idriss Youssouf Boy is the director of Mahamat Kaka's presidential office and a key figure in the regime despite having once been accused of embezzling CFA120 billion (about US$200 million)...
This means Mahamat Kaka is surrounded by disputes and rivalries just as his father was when he allowed his wife Hinda Mahamat Abdelrahim Açyl to appoint many of her clients and relations to plum positions in the state apparatus...
This story surfaced on a social media account belonging to Saleye Déby Itno one of the late President's brothers and was repeated by some of Mahamat Kaka's half-brothers...
The implicit deal made with former opposition figures now in the cabinet is that they may accumulate money and deploy patronage for friends and relatives but eventually their parties will have to repay the favour by campaigning for Mahamat Kaka and supporting him in parliament...
Despite Mahamat Kaka's apparent monopoly of power winning the 2024 election won't be as easy as it was for his father because the old man's party the Mouvement populaire de Salut has collapsed and MPS politicians are each making individual deals for support within their own constituencies...
The MPS no longer has national control of the polling network and nobody yet knows if Mahamat Kaka can rebuild it or create a new one...
REPRESSION LIFTS THE APPEAL OF REVOLT The brutality of the suppression of the 20 October protests raises the spectre of oppositionists joining the plethora of armed groups committed to the overthrow of President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno aka 'Mahamat Kaka'...
Mahamat Kaka however sees it as a threat and has been according greater respect to CAR's President Faustin Archange Touadéra than would normally be expected...
Gen Bichara Isse Djadallah Mahamat Kaka's senior presidential military advisor is a cousin of Gen Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti' (Rizeigat/Mahariyya) the leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan and number two in the Sudanese regime...
The new foreign minister Mahamat Saleh Annadif is Rizeigat/Mahariya and the mother of Abakar Mannany one of Mahamat Kaka's most vital advisors and fixers is Mahariya...
