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High stakes but low ambitions at Baku’s geopolitical climate summit

COP29 opening, 11 November 2024. Pic: cop29.az
COP29 opening, 11 November 2024. Pic: cop29.az

Africa’s bargaining chips at COP29 are ‘green ores’, and trading its forests, grasslands and shorelines as carbon sinks

After a year of weather disasters and the hottest average temperatures on record, cash will dominate negotiations at the UN Conference of the Parties (COP29) climate summit from 11-22 November in Baku. Negotiations over climate finance between rich and developing economies will be tough, probably quite fraught as they were earlier in the year when states were trying to get a common position on new funding targets.


Touadéra’s balancing act

Faustin-Archange Touadéra and Vladimir Putin, July 2023. Pic: Pavel Bednyakov, RIA Novosti/en.kremlin.ru
Faustin-Archange Touadéra and Vladimir Putin, July 2023. Pic: Pavel Bednyakov, RIA Novosti/en.kremlin.ru

The President walks a fine line, relying on military support from Moscow as he shores up ties with the EU and France

The regime of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra may have staved off the threat of a coup d’état – unlike neighbouring Gabon and three Sahelian states – but citizens complain...


It’s the economy, Macron!

Pic: @EmmanuelMacron
Pic: @EmmanuelMacron

Paris has lost power in its old chasse gardée but French companies are spreading their wings across the continent

President Emmanuel Macron’s government is wheeling out the ministers of finance, trade and foreign affairs on 19-20 November to meet African businesses and official delegates to cut deals...

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All roads lead to Maputo

Pic: venancio.mondlanevm7
Pic: venancio.mondlanevm7

Opposition firebrand Mondlane is staking everything on his calls for mass protests in the capital on 7 November

Mozambique’s economy is grinding to a halt amid nationwide protests, following its disputed election on 9 October. Many in the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) party...


Cultural and political battles break out as the stolen bronzes come home

Bronze Plaque looted from the Royal Palace of Benin, purchased by the Pitt Rivers Museum for five pounds in 1907
Bronze Plaque looted from the Royal Palace of Benin, purchased by the Pitt Rivers Museum for five pounds in 1907

A $100 million museum to exhibit Benin bronzes looted by British soldiers is opening but few of the artefacts will be on display

A trial of strength between powerful figures in Edo State and the Federal Government highlights the complexities around demands for reparations and restitution to Africa. The bold vision...


Outgoing Commonwealth chief is pushing for Zimbabwe’s readmission

Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa/State House of Zimbabwe
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa/State House of Zimbabwe

Top Commonwealth officials and senior British diplomats favour bringing Harare back into the fold – despite a damning report on last year’s elections

The Commonwealth Secretariat is working to support Zimbabwe’s application to be readmitted to the mainly Anglophone, ex-British colonial group of nations, Africa Confidential has learned. The outgoing Secretary-General,...

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No policy shifts as Tinubu reshuffles

Bola Tinubu. Pic: @NGRPresident/State House/Ella Eduozor
Bola Tinubu. Pic: @NGRPresident/State House/Ella Eduozor

Economic hardship and political frustration are worsening but the president endorses most of his cabinet

Five months after receiving a performance report on his 45 ministers, President Bola Tinubu finally reshuffled his cabinet, sacking five ministers and making seven new ones, raising the...


Fears mount as election row escalates

Venâncio Mondlane. Pic: venancio.mondlanevm7
Venâncio Mondlane. Pic: venancio.mondlanevm7

Presidential contender Mondlane’s supporters are preparing to confront Frelimo on the streets

The call by Lúcia da Luz Ribeiro, President of the Constitutional Council, for the Comissão Nacional de Eleições (CNE) to produce the results sheets (editais) from every polling...


From Abu Dhabi with Dirham

Pic: presidence.td
Pic: presidence.td

UAE leader Mohamed bin Zayed will want political and other favours in return for his hefty investment in Mahamat Kaka

After meeting France’s President Emmanuel Macron at the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie (OIF) in Villers-Cotterêts on 4-5 October, Chad’s President Mahamat Déby Itno ‘Kaka’ rushed to Abu...


Mixed progress on Putin’s agenda

Pic: @BRICSNWS
Pic: @BRICSNWS

While the BRICS summit made limited headway, the US and EU should not underestimate the strength of antipathy to the multilateral institutions

Hosting last week’s BRICS summit in Kazan was a welcome break from two years of international isolation for President Vladimir Putin and a golden opportunity to increase Russia’s...


The Bank sounds alarms on lost decade

Africa: Growth disappoints, per-capita incomes still lag. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Africa: Growth disappoints, per-capita incomes still lag. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Along with climate change and geopolitical tensions, deepening instability is holding back growth in many African economies

Officials tried valiantly to inject some optimism at the annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank from 21-26 October in Washington DC amid growing concerns over global...


Accra jumps through more debt hoops

Mahamudu Bawumia. Pic: @MBawumia
Mahamudu Bawumia. Pic: @MBawumia

Bondholders have accepted a Eurobond workout, but big financing difficulties remain

With just over a month until the elections, Ghana’s government is struggling with domestic protests, strikes, and the challenge of convincing a sceptical inflation-hit electorate that the economy...


In power for six decades, the ruling BDP promises change

Botswana Decides 2024. Pic: @OfficialMasisi
Botswana Decides 2024. Pic: @OfficialMasisi

Running for a second term, President Masisi is helped by opposition splits but his economic plans lack credibility

Against a backdrop of rising youth unemployment and tumbling diamond revenues, Botswana’s elections on 30 October are set to be among its most closely fought since independence in...


Kigali tightens its security grip as Nyusi bows out

Pic: @UrugwiroVillage
Pic: @UrugwiroVillage

The furore over Mozambique’s national elections this month may complicate Rwanda’s military role in the northern Cabo Delgado province

Rwanda’s military, invited by President Filipe Nyusi to push back insurgents and guard the gas export plant in Cabo Delgado, is expanding its security operations and business interests...


Junta’s stance threatens uranium exports

General Abdourahamane Tiani. Pic: @NIGER_CNSP
General Abdourahamane Tiani. Pic: @NIGER_CNSP

In its haste to expel western mining companies, the junta risks being left with no one to exploit its most valuable export


Evidence of vote stealing mounts

Daniel Chapo. Pic: @FRELIMO_
Daniel Chapo. Pic: @FRELIMO_

Independent monitors and all the opposition parties question the credibility of the presidential and parliamentary elections