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Ending fuel subsidies, Tinubu takes on traders and the unions

Pic: @officialABAT
Pic: @officialABAT

The new government has to forestall the threat of hyper-inflation and the economy slipping back into recession

Within hours of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu proclaiming 'the end of fuel subsidies' at his inauguration on 29 May, the pump price for gasoline had almost tripled at filling stations across the country. Days later, the country's two biggest trade union confederations announced plans for national strikes demanding the reinstatement of the subsidy until the government published a plan to compensate workers for higher fuel and commodity prices.


Mutharika manoeuvres for a comeback

Peter Mutharika. Pic: DFID (CC BY 2.0)
Peter Mutharika. Pic: DFID (CC BY 2.0)

So dire is the record of the incumbent that the opposition believes Peter Mutharika could be elected president again in 2025

The political situation is in such turmoil that the next contest to lead Malawi is already dominating talk in the capital. Ex-President Peter Mutharika is planning a comeback, acco...


Football before politics

Pic: @AOuattara_PRCI
Pic: @AOuattara_PRCI

Local elections have been brought forward to avoid clashing with the Africa Cup of Nations but offering just as many fireworks as old rivals vie for key posts

The stakes are high. The coming local elections must be flawless, unlike the violence-tainted 2020 presidentials, not only for the sake of the country's reputation but to reassure ...


Shell holds up clean-up payments in graft row

Pic: @HYPREPNigeria
Pic: @HYPREPNigeria

Sacked director of Ogoniland project spells out corruption concerns in rebuke to environment ministry

Shell is withholding payments towards the Ogoniland clean-up until it sees a full accounting for the disputed contracts issued to date, Africa Confidential has learned from sources...

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The ruling party could benefit from its IMF U-turn

Ken Ofori-Atta speaks at the IMF press conference on the recently-approved $3bn program for Ghana.
Ken Ofori-Atta speaks at the IMF press conference on the recently-approved $3bn program for Ghana.

After losing a by-election, the opposition NDC is crafting its campaign on government failure ahead of next year's elections

The IMF approval of a US$3 billion bailout to support Ghana's ailing economy is being held up as a victory by the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP), but it is also an embarrassin...


The IMF offers some breathing space

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

Accra has secured concessions from the multilateral banks as well as China in exchange for promises on debt

Although West Africa's second largest economy had been expected to receive an International Monetary Fund deal in the coming months, the IMF's 17 May announcement – that its ...

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Deeper reforms needed after the bailout

IMF HQ. Pic: Bumble Dee / stock.adobe.com
IMF HQ. Pic: Bumble Dee / stock.adobe.com

Slowing inflation and a strengthening cedi after the IMF credit will help the ruling party’s election campaign

Ghana's US$3 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund will not be painless, and comes with demands for a diet of structural reforms and spending cuts. Key prioriti...


A ceasefire with monitors this time

Pic: @RSFSudan
Pic: @RSFSudan

With back-up, the latest truce could open the door for a general return to Khartoum and the restart of civilian negotiations on the transition

The agreement of a short-term ceasefire and humanitarian arrangements in Jeddah on 21 May with monitoring capacity, after six failed such accords, may be a step forward despite the...


Tinubu struggles to control the Assembly

Pic: @officialABAT
Pic: @officialABAT

The incoming President's feted dealmaking skills will be tested in the courts and in the legislature

Ahead of the scheduled 29 May inauguration of President-elect Bola Tinubu, there are two key procedural hurdles: he has to resolve the fight over the leadership of both houses of t...


Sonko's trial is Sall's challenge

Pic: @SonkoOfficiel
Pic: @SonkoOfficiel

The outcome of the firebrand oppositionist's trial could transform the face of politics, and may open the way to other contenders

More than two years after he was first charged with raping the masseuse Adji Sarr and then making death threats, Ousmane Sonko, the charismatic leader of the Pastef Les Patriotes p...


Cairo's gas export boom hits obstacles

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

With Europe's sanctions on Russian gas, Cairo has been boosting LNG exports to fill the gap but questions are mounting about sustainability

Increased revenue from exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been a rare bright spot in Egypt's otherwise dismal economic performance over the past two years. The government ...


Team Abiy inches forward in Oromo talks

Abiy Ahmed. Pic: dpa picture alliance/Alamy
Abiy Ahmed. Pic: dpa picture alliance/Alamy

The government must balance negotiations with the Oromo rebels with its strategy in the Tigray and Amhara regions

The federal government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) pushed maximalist positions on disarmament and devolution respectively in the first round of their peace talks in Zanziba...


Oil boom poses governance risks

Pic: @hagegeingob
Pic: @hagegeingob

Politically-connected middlemen taking key roles in oil licencing raise concerns over corruption in the coming hydrocarbons bonanza

Namibia looks set to add oil to its cornucopia of mineral resources, including gem diamonds, uranium, and lithium, with the potential to become a major exporter by 2026. The bonanz...


Frelimo rolls out the vote

Pic: @FRELIMO_
Pic: @FRELIMO_

Having failed to persuade parliament to allow him to stand for a third term, President Filipe Nyusi is bent on consolidating his position by securing a landslide for Frelimo in Oct...


Bayelsa commission reports

Pic: @BSOECommission
Pic: @BSOECommission

The Bayelsa State Oil and Environmental Commission (BSOEC) launched its much-anticipated report on 60 years' worth of oil pollution in the state, where local companies now produce ...


Succès on K-Street

Pic: @Succes_MASRA
Pic: @Succes_MASRA

Opposition leader Succès Masra and his party, Les Transformateurs, have taken on the K-Street lobby shop, Scribe Strategies, led by Republican operative Joseph Szlavik, one ...


Jobs for the spouses

Mary Chebukati Wanyonyi. Pic: Twitter
Mary Chebukati Wanyonyi. Pic: Twitter

Cronyism is nothing new in Kenyan politics and the latest move to raise eyebrows was President William Ruto's decision this week to nominate Mary Chebukati Wanyonyi, wife of former...


Minister sacks oil clean-up boss as graft fears grow

Nenibarini Zabbey takes over from Ferdinand Giadom. Pic: @HYPREPNigeria
Nenibarini Zabbey takes over from Ferdinand Giadom. Pic: @HYPREPNigeria

The removal of the head of HYPREP is the latest effort to clear resistance to wholesale plunder of the $1 billion Delta anti-pollution programme

The head of the government agency charged with cleaning up decades of oil pollution by Shell in Ogoniland, Ferdinand Giadom, was summarily sacked without cause by President Muhamma...

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A war that hits everyone all at once

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

As the generals are deadlocked in battle, a humanitarian disaster is building with refugees fleeing for neighbouring countries

Prospects for a humanitarian ceasefire in Sudan have improved since the opening of talks between representatives of the warring factions open in Jeddah on 6 May, according to Unite...


What does Raila Odinga want?

Pic: @RailaOdinga
Pic: @RailaOdinga

The opposition leader has got the talks he demanded but that may not keep his supporters off the streets

After weeks of insisting that there would be no compromise and no 'handshake'-style deal with veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, President William Ruto followed his two immedi...


No brave new Bretton Woods in sight

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

Negotiations on reforming the international finance system are slowed by geopolitics and the west’s economic wobbles

Grand talk about remaking the international system and a second edition of Bretton Woods meeting, which founded the IMF and the World Bank in 1944, has yielded little but promises ...


ZANU-PF fires its electoral blunderbuss

Pic: @edmnangagwa
Pic: @edmnangagwa

At every level and in every institution, the ruling party is sidelining and attacking the opposition

With less than three months before national elections are due, there are multiple signs of abuses of state power by the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU...


Rich countries boost aid – to themselves

OECD HQ, Paris. (CC BY 2.0)
OECD HQ, Paris. (CC BY 2.0)

Helping Ukrainian refugees has driven a surge in aid spending – mostly at the expense of hard-hit African economies

African states have felt the pain of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the form of shortages and higher prices for wheat, grain and agricultural inputs, and above all energy prices. ...