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Escalating violence could reshape Tinubu’s plan for 2027 vote

NIGERIA'S SECURITY CRISIS (2014-2025) Islamist fighters keep attacking in Lake Chad Basin. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
NIGERIA'S SECURITY CRISIS (2014-2025) Islamist fighters keep attacking in Lake Chad Basin. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Northern states have been hit hardest by jihadist insurgents together with banditry and kidnapping alongside murderous herder-farmer clashes

When Nigeria’s National Security Advisor, Nuhu Ribadu, announced the arrest of two senior fighters affiliated with Al Qaida on 17 August, officials cited it as another success for President Bola Tinubu. His campaign team fears that the government’s poor record on security could complicate his bid for a second term in the 2027 elections.


Washington revives peace push after a year of drift

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Pic: © Egyptian Presidency Handout/Handout via ZUMA Press Wire
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Pic: © Egyptian Presidency Handout/Handout via ZUMA Press Wire

A secret meeting in Zurich between US President Donald Trump’s envoy and SAF Commander Burhan may cut across the regional rivalries blocking negotiations

A three-hour meeting in Zurich between Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) commander General Abdel Fattah al Burhan and United States President Donald Trump’s Senior Africa Advisor Massad Boulos on...

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Looking east, Ruto targets yen and yuan

William Ruto meets Toyota Tsusho Corporation Chairman and CEO Toshimitsu Imai and Toyota Kenya officials, Yokohama City, Japan, August 2025. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto meets Toyota Tsusho Corporation Chairman and CEO Toshimitsu Imai and Toyota Kenya officials, Yokohama City, Japan, August 2025. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

As dissent mounts, the government is counting on loans, interest rate cuts and a stalled privatisation programme to ease its debt woes

To ease the cashflow crisis that triggered mass protests and weakened the shilling – as the Treasury used precious dollars to pay its Eurobond debts – President William...


President Ramkalawan takes an authoritarian turn

Wavel Ramkalawan. Pic: @StateHouseSey
Wavel Ramkalawan. Pic: @StateHouseSey

Ahead of next month’s elections, activists questions the value and accountability of new Gulf States investments

The cost of living, Gulf States investors and the government’s authoritarian turn are set to dominate the elections on 27 September. They will be the first national...


ICJ climate ruling opens floodgates for billions in pollution payouts

Earth asking for help. Pic: un.org
Earth asking for help. Pic: un.org

The UN court’s opinion defining greenhouse gas emissions as ‘internationally wrongful acts’ argues for climate finance to become a legal obligation for the main polluting countries

The ruling by the UN’s top court that countries may be held legally accountable for their greenhouse gas emissions and the environmental damage they cause could help reshape...


Cocoa and coffee farmers facing trade chaos as Brussels pushes deforestation crackdown

Cocoa in Kumba, Cameroon. Pic: Silvia Truessel / stock.adobe.com
Cocoa in Kumba, Cameroon. Pic: Silvia Truessel / stock.adobe.com

Smallholders to be hit hardest as EU and ‘Big Chocolate’ resolve to impose new traceability rules next year

Africa’s cocoa and coffee farmers are stepping up pressure on the European Commission to postpone its anti-deforestation law due to come into force next year. They are calling...


Paris resets military ties in Africa, tilting to Europe

Thani Mohamed-Soilihi. Pic: diplomatie.gouv.fr
Thani Mohamed-Soilihi. Pic: diplomatie.gouv.fr

After their exit from the Sahel, French troops prioritise flexible partnerships and blunting Russia’s influence

When France’s Secretary of State for la Francophonie and International Partnerships, Thani Mohamed-Soilihi told journalists on 27 July that the security crisis in the Sahel was no longer...


General Tiani tightens grip as regional rumblings grow louder

General Abdourahamane Tiani. Pic: FB Présidence De La République Du Niger
General Abdourahamane Tiani. Pic: FB Présidence De La République Du Niger

After failing to repel determined jihadist attacks, the Sahel juntas crack down on internal dissent

The latest round of arrests in Mali, amid reports of a planned putsch on 10 August, looks unlikely to change the centralisation of power in Bamako or in...


Tanzania’s climate czar Richard Muyungi

Richard Muyungi. Pic: @AGNChairUNFCCC
Richard Muyungi. Pic: @AGNChairUNFCCC

African unity – alongside climate solutions and access to adaptation finance – will top the agenda at the second Africa Climate Summit in Addis Ababa, which runs from...


Salva’s family values

Adut Salva Kiir pays Benjamin Bol Mel a courtesy visit, 27 August 2025. Pic: @vpsouthsudan
Adut Salva Kiir pays Benjamin Bol Mel a courtesy visit, 27 August 2025. Pic: @vpsouthsudan

President Salva Kiir Mayardit has strengthened his control over his government’s economic ministries by appointing his eldest daughter, Adut Salva Kiir, as a senior economic advisor and dismissing...


Agents of repression

Pic: @hrw
Pic: @hrw

The European Union and Spain have ‘incentivized repression’ of migration by funding and supporting Mauritanian forces to bolster border and migration controls without ensuring adequate human rights safeguards,...


Tinubu’s biggest challenge - ructions in the ruling party

Bola Ahmed Tinubu visits Kaduna State, June 2025. Pic: @officialABAT
Bola Ahmed Tinubu visits Kaduna State, June 2025. Pic: @officialABAT

The country’s shrewdest political strategist has to contend with multiple schisms in the 36 states

On most measures, President Bola Tinubu has emphatically improved the position of the ruling All Progressives Congress in Nigeria – despite the unpopularity of many of its economic...

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