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Ethiopia

Fano’s battlefield gains show Abiy’s shaky grip on the regions

Captured Ethiopian Federal Forces. Pic: @martinplaut
Captured Ethiopian Federal Forces. Pic: @martinplaut

Federal government is pushed back hard as opposition forces in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray form a loose anti-regime front, redrawing the political map in the Horn

After recent victories by insurgents in Amhara, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has been showing signs of the strain as its opponents join forces and launch heavier challenges. In a 2 October letter to the UN, the Foreign Ministry accused the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Eritrea of ‘funding, mobilising, and directing’ Fano forces’ successful offensives in the North Wollo area. The TPLF had fought against Addis Ababa and its Eritrean and Fano allies in the 2020–22 Tigray war which ended with the Pretoria Agreement.


Brussels pushes Global Gateway to rival US-China deal-making

G20-Africa High-Level Dialogue on Debt Sustainability, Cost of Capital, and Financing Reforms hosted by the African Union, 10 November 2025, Addis Ababa. Pic: @APRMorg
G20-Africa High-Level Dialogue on Debt Sustainability, Cost of Capital, and Financing Reforms hosted by the African Union, 10 November 2025, Addis Ababa. Pic: @APRMorg

Eurocrats will argue for more transactional policies at the Luanda summit to secure critical minerals. But can the EU’s cash match its ambitions?

Africa Union and European Union leaders insist they want to ratchet up economic security ties ahead of their two-day summit starting in Angola on 25 November, just after...


Cloud of blood and doubt hangs over Hassan’s victory

Fires in the streets of Dar es Salaam

Marked by eerie calm and deadly force, the vote unfolded under an internet shutdown – amid fear and fraud

‘Hundreds’ of Tanzanians were killed by security forces during the presidential election on 29 October and in the days that followed, as President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared...


Burhan’s leadership in question after Darfur retreat

SUDAN: After brutal siege of El Fasher, the RSF targets El Obeid. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
SUDAN: After brutal siege of El Fasher, the RSF targets El Obeid. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The fall of El Fasher exposes international failures as the RSF kills thousands of civilians with impunity

The Rapid Support Forces’ seizure of El Fasher on 26 October after a brutal 16 month siege, gives it control over much of western Sudan and has strengthened...


Tinubu courts juntas as Ecowas resets security ties

NIGERIA AND THE SAHEL: Tinubu tries to mend fences with the juntas. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
NIGERIA AND THE SAHEL: Tinubu tries to mend fences with the juntas. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Abuja is forging fresh partnerships as jihadist violence spreads and trust frays in the wake of military rule

With security collapsing across the Sahel and imperilling West Africa, Nigeria is pushing to rebuild military partnerships with the ruling juntas in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali –...


Tinubu’s policy paradox

NIGERIA: GROWTH AND REVENUES UP, BUT HOUSEHOLDS STRUGGLE. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
NIGERIA: GROWTH AND REVENUES UP, BUT HOUSEHOLDS STRUGGLE. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Food prices, shrinking purchasing power and insecurity underscore the disconnect between praise for reforms and everyday hardship

Abuja’s Debt Management Office ploughed on with a US$2.25 billion Eurobond launch on 5 November, despite market ructions triggered by United States President Donald Trump’s threats of military...


Warning lights as G20 looms

G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, Washington DC, October 2025. Pic: @g20org
G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, Washington DC, October 2025. Pic: @g20org

Business leaders sound the alarm over the country’s economic drift, despite signs of fiscal recovery

South Africa is caught in a classic debt trap, with the economy growing more slowly than the interest the government pays on its rapidly expanding debt. In recent...


Ruto goes west as ODM ponders life after Raila

Oburu Oginga. Pic: @DrOburu_O
Oburu Oginga. Pic: @DrOburu_O

While the Orange Democratic Movement works out its future, President Ruto is shoring up his support in its heartlands

The death of Raila Amolo Odinga has left Nairobi’s political class with a compelling question: how much longer before his Orange Democratic Movement splits? At stake is a...


The contest reaches flashpoint

Issa Tchiroma Bakary
Issa Tchiroma Bakary

The President and his challenger marshal their forces while the loyalty of the security forces remains in the balance

The contest for power in Cameroon looks set to reach a climax this week, as opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who claims victory in the 12 October presidential...


Athens offers Benghazi a deal to end Mediterranean feud

LIBYA-GREECE MARITIME DISPUTE: Competing claims over oil exploration. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
LIBYA-GREECE MARITIME DISPUTE: Competing claims over oil exploration. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Premier Mitsotakis wants to defuse rival blocs and stop a Libyan-Turkish pact scooping up oil rights in the Mediterranean

A regional cooperation plan with Libya, Egypt, Cyprus and Turkey outlined by Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in parliament in Athens on 17 October could help resolve the...


Brussels backs down on forest laws again

Cocoa pods. Pic: ND STOCK/AI/stock.adobe.com
Cocoa pods. Pic: ND STOCK/AI/stock.adobe.com

The EU’s anti-deforestation laws show how badly drafted climate policy can alienate everyone – farmers, traders and consumers

Chaos surrounds the European Union’s anti-deforestation regulation. Following a series of U-turns and carve outs, the law will not affect African farmers until June 2026, 18 months later...


Fields of expensive dreams

Talanta Stadium, Nairobi, under construction
Talanta Stadium, Nairobi, under construction

When Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda were appointed co-hosts of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations, the move was hailed as a welcome shot in the arm for three...


Gen Z redraws the power map

Colonel Michael Randrianirina is sworn in.
Colonel Michael Randrianirina is sworn in.

Mass demonstrations prompted President Andry Rajoelina’s removal from power. Now the military is back in the driving seat


Terror sets the tone for polling day

Humphrey Polepole. Pic: @hpoIepole
Humphrey Polepole. Pic: @hpoIepole

Security men guided by the President’s son are said to be behind the abductions and killings creating a climate of fear for the 29 October elections


Crisis in the capital

Johnson Sakaja. Pic: @SakajaJohnson

Unable to keep the streets clean, Johnson Sakaja is the latest victim of the Nairobi governor curse


Jihadists tighten their stranglehold

MALI CRISIS: How insurgents are targeting the trade routes. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
MALI CRISIS: How insurgents are targeting the trade routes. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

With critical gold mines in the Kayes region already under threat, the militants are now targeting critical commercial axes


To the victor the spoiled ballot

Issa Tchiroma Bakary. Pic: itb_officiel

Issa Tchiroma Bakary has declared himself the presidential election winner but few doubt that Paul Biya will ultimately prevail through electoral fraud