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Macron tilts to Anglophone Africa after Sahelian exits

President Bola Tinubu’s state visit to Paris, 28-29 November. Pic: @officialABAT
President Bola Tinubu’s state visit to Paris, 28-29 November. Pic: @officialABAT

After a spate of reverses in the region, the French President is boosting ties with Ghana and Nigeria

One data point sums up the commercial stakes: there are more French companies in Nigeria than there are in the rest of West Africa. It also painted the backdrop for President Bola Tinubu’s state visit to Paris on 28-29 November, the first by a Nigerian head of state since Olusegun Obasanjo’s trip in 2000.


Tinubu looks to his military home boys

President Bola Tinubu at the funeral of Lt Gen Taoreed Lagbaja. Pic: @officialABAT
President Bola Tinubu at the funeral of Lt Gen Taoreed Lagbaja. Pic: @officialABAT

After a spate of coups swept West Africa, the President has stacked key positions with officers from his home region

Faced with security threats on multiple levels – jihadist fighters, mass unrest and would-be putschists – President Bola Tinubu is taking no chances. He is building the country’s...


Zimbabwe readmission ‘is off’

Baroness Patricia Scotland welcomes Emmerson Mnangagwa to Marlborough House, May 2023. Pic: @PScotlandCSG
Baroness Patricia Scotland welcomes Emmerson Mnangagwa to Marlborough House, May 2023. Pic: @PScotlandCSG

The UK won’t support Zimbabwe’s readmission to the Commonwealth, we hear, although it could threaten its charm offensive on the continent

Commonwealth Secretary-General Baroness Patricia Scotland’s plan to re-admit Zimbabwe has run into resistance from Britain’s Labour government, diplomatic sources have told Africa Confidential. It was felt that taking...


Lourenço mulls his succession

Pic: João Lourenço FB
Pic: João Lourenço FB

With demonstrators marching again in Luanda, the MPLA government may start taking more risks

When US President Joe Biden arrives in Angola on 2 December, he will be able to compare succession notes with his counterpart João Lourenço. After pushing some ground-breaking...


The rise, fall and rise again of Jacob Zuma

Pic: @FloydShivambu
Pic: @FloydShivambu

Like his populist counterpart across the Atlantic, South Africa’s much prosecuted leader keeps bouncing back

Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is shaping the landscape as it gears up for its first anniversary on 16 December, its ranks bolstered by several high-profile defectors...


Hargeisa faces new pressures

Pic: @Abdirahmanirro
Pic: @Abdirahmanirro

After Irro’s victory, the government must respond to demands on corruption and jobs as it tries to hold the territory together

The decisive victory for Abdirahman Mahamed Abdullahi Irro with 64% in the 13 November presidential elections should be seen as the culmination of two years of politicking during...


SWAPO aims to avoid a Botswana-style upset

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Pic: @VPSWAPO
Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. Pic: @VPSWAPO

With incumbents out of favour in the region, the outcome of the elections is on a knife-edge

Vice-President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (known as NNN) was swimming against the regional tide as she campaigned to become Namibia’s first female head of state in the parliamentary and presidential...


Cosplay at the COP29 – a climate finance summit without numbers

Photo op at the COP. © Asempa Ltd, 2024. All rights reserved.
Photo op at the COP. © Asempa Ltd, 2024. All rights reserved.

By failing to agree on a new cash target, the Baku delegates are acting in character but could break up the UN climate bargaining process

The failure by delegates to agree on the core climate finance target at the Baku summit would risk a breakdown as serious as the collapse of the UN...


President Faye set to win in parliament as honeymoon endures

Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Pic: @PR_Senegal
Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Pic: @PR_Senegal

New alliances are unlikely to stop the popular president and his Pastef party from success in the snap legislative election

If President Bassirou Diomaye Faye hoped a relaxation of nomination rules for the 17 November parliamentary elections would see opposition to his ruling Patriotes africains du Sénégal pour...


Silence on sanctions-busting

Apogee FZC
Apogee FZC

No official reaction has followed Africa Confidential and the Gambian Republic investigative website’s article on sanctions-busting by a Russian company in Banjul. The United Arab Emirates-registered company Apogee...


 The price of sainthood

King Badouin leaves the church of St Mary, Leopoldville after attending mass. Belgian Congo 23 May 1955. Pic: Smith Archive / Alamy Stock Photo
King Badouin leaves the church of St Mary, Leopoldville after attending mass. Belgian Congo 23 May 1955. Pic: Smith Archive / Alamy Stock Photo

Pope Francis’s plan to beatify Belgium’s late King Baudouin risks re-opening the wounds of Congo-Kinshasa’s brutal colonial past.


Leaders look for deals in the Trump marketplace

The White House. Pic: Public Domain
The White House. Pic: Public Domain

States rich in critical minerals could win big investments as Washington jostles for access with Beijing

Countries sitting on the minerals to power the energy transition – such as copper, cobalt and lithium – expect a more determined push for access from US mining...


Boko wins big

Duma Boko. Pic: @duma_boko
Duma Boko. Pic: @duma_boko

Rebooting economic growth and and cutting unemployment are the new President’s priorities

The pace of the political transition in Botswana matches the urgency of the new government’s agenda: to stabilise an economy in free fall with youth unemployment hitting 38%....


Mnangagwa takes on the army

Heroes Day, August 2024. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Heroes Day, August 2024. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Seven years after the coup, Mnangagwa’s manoeuverings to stay in power are angering Chiwenga and other generals

The most significant constraint on President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa’s plan to extend his rule is the military. Senior officers know that just as they launched him into power...


Facing calls for reform, the state hits back

William Samoei Ruto. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Samoei Ruto. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

A wave of murders and abductions at the hands of the police has prompted condemnation from civic activists and diplomats

Initial hopes that the mass protests in June against state corruption and police brutality would persuade President William Samoei Ruto to make the government more accountable were overblown....


Debt and inflation drag Bawumia down

Ghana: Growth surprises, but will deficit overshoot? Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Ghana: Growth surprises, but will deficit overshoot? Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

The green shoots of economic recovery may be coming too late for the ruling party’s electoral chances


All roads lead to Maputo

Pic: venancio.mondlanevm7
Pic: venancio.mondlanevm7

Opposition firebrand Mondlane is staking everything on his calls for mass protests in the capital on 7 November


Touadéra’s balancing act

Faustin-Archange Touadéra and Vladimir Putin, July 2023. Pic: Pavel Bednyakov, RIA Novosti/en.kremlin.ru
Faustin-Archange Touadéra and Vladimir Putin, July 2023. Pic: Pavel Bednyakov, RIA Novosti/en.kremlin.ru

The President walks a fine line, relying on military support from Moscow as he shores up ties with the EU and France