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El Sisi's grip weakens as economic pressures mount

General Abdel Fattah el Sisi visits the Suez Canal Authority. Pic: @AlsisiOfficial
General Abdel Fattah el Sisi visits the Suez Canal Authority. Pic: @AlsisiOfficial

With the economy back in crisis, discontent among civilians and the president's military base is rising

When General Abdel Fattah el Sisi seized power almost ten years ago, he promised to bring security and stability to Egypt, while setting the economy on a sustainable course and raising living standards. He may have succeeded on the first two counts, by severely repressing civil liberties, but the economy is in a precarious state.


Saïed's racial crackdown deepens economic woes

UGTT demonstration, Tunis, 4 March 2023. Pic: Yassine Mahjoub/Sipa USA/Alamy
UGTT demonstration, Tunis, 4 March 2023. Pic: Yassine Mahjoub/Sipa USA/Alamy

Tunisia's president is locking up political opponents and inciting racist violence, as the country's economy plunges into further chaos

President Kaïs Saïed is making good on his 28 December promise to crack down on what he calls 'the enemies of Tunisia'. In the past few weeks, he has imprisoned political...


President Masisi presses De Beers for bigger cut of diamond cash

Mokgweetsi Masisi and De Beers CEO Al Cook. Pic: @OfficialMasisi
Mokgweetsi Masisi and De Beers CEO Al Cook. Pic: @OfficialMasisi

Ahead of next year's elections, officials say they want to boost accountability and the nation's stake in mining

After five years of negotiations over revenues and production at the world's biggest diamond mine, Botswana's President Mokgweetsi Masisi and the De Beers conglomerate are at logg...


State elections will reinforce three-party vote split

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

Peter Obi's Labour Party will face fierce local fights as incumbent governors defend their fiefdoms after last month's political upsets

The outcome of the elections in 28 of Nigeria's 36 states on 18 March will have more effect on the daily lives of most voters than the disputed presidential elections last month.


Vote-getters and loyalists predominate

Pic: @PresidencyZA
Pic: @PresidencyZA

The President's reshuffle prioritises next year's elections instead of addressing the economy, infrastructure and electricity emergency

After serial delays and great expectations, President Cyril Ramaphosa brought in 10 new ministers for his reshuffle on 6 March with a wary eye on next year's general elections. It ...


How money talks in national elections

Viktor Vekselberg. Pic: Alexander Miridonov/Kommersant/Sipa USA/Alamy
Viktor Vekselberg. Pic: Alexander Miridonov/Kommersant/Sipa USA/Alamy

A law forcing political parties to disclose their funding has cast light on cash from three local billionaires and a Russian oligarch

With national elections due to be held next year, concerns are brewing over whether donations could be used to buy influence. Africa Confidential's analysis of declarations by Sout...

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The one-party state bounces back

William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua Pic: @WilliamsRuto

Borrowing from Daniel arap Moi's playbook, President Ruto's allies plan to turn his coalition into a single, dominant party

After painstakingly building an alliance of mainly small parties to carry him to power last year, President William Ruto is determined to subsume them all into his victorious Unite...


Magufuli's mega-projects live on

John Magufuli celebrates the start of the second phase of the Central Line Standard Gauge Railway from Morogoro to Dodoma. Pic: @MagufuliJP
John Magufuli celebrates the start of the second phase of the Central Line Standard Gauge Railway from Morogoro to Dodoma. Pic: @MagufuliJP

Instead of reviewing the grand economic schemes she has inherited, the President is embracing them, despite warnings about the viability of some

A key part of the political identity of late President John Magufuli was to promote massive infrastructural projects to boost industrialisation and bring prosperity. President Sami...


Samia builds her base and sets down markers

Pic: @ChademaTz
Pic: @ChademaTz

After a shaky start President Samia has imposed herself on ruling party and state alike and eased up on repression, but popularity eludes her so far

President Samia Suluhu Hassan astonished supporters and sceptics alike when she attended International Women's Day celebration on 8 March as a guest of Bawacha, the women's wing of...


Uneasy peace at Las Anod

Pic: @musebiihi
Pic: @musebiihi

Addis has persuaded Hargeisa to ease its artillery barrages on the town, but Somaliland's president remains determined to crush his opponents

Oblivious to the concerns of western countries and interested neighbours, President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland has now listened to envoys of Ethiopia and called off the all-out a...


Brussels backs Italy's hard line on migration

Pic: @vonderleyen
Pic: @vonderleyen

A leaked letter from the European Commission chief spells out the EU's plans to deter and return migrants to their home countries

A week after the sinking of a boat carrying several hundred migrants off the Calabrian coast in southern Italy which killed more than 60 people, European Commission President Ursul...


How El Sisi lost the cold war over water

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Pic: Yirga Mengistu/Adwa Pictures Plc/dpa/Alamy
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Pic: Yirga Mengistu/Adwa Pictures Plc/dpa/Alamy

Closer ties between Addis Ababa and Khartoum sideline Cairo's position on the Nile dam

Egypt, a key player in the Nile Basin, is watching with alarm as the recent rapprochement between Sudan and Ethiopia undercuts its leverage over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam...


Energy drives Italy's turn to Libya

Pic: @GiorgiaMeloni
Pic: @GiorgiaMeloni

Rome desperately needs North Africa's gas and is making  commercial and political investments in Libya

Italy has already replaced Russia as its main supplier of gas, which is transforming its strategic relationship with North Africa, especially Algeria, Libya and Egypt. Rome intends...


Disclosure costs Maputo

Pic: judiciary.uk
Pic: judiciary.uk

The London High Court judge presiding over the civil case brought by Mozambique against Credit Suisse bank and the naval contractor Privinvest in January 2020 says that he will str...


Khaki vigilantes

Imoro Sherrif
Imoro Sherrif

The Ghana Armed Forces have come under fierce public criticism following an apparent vigilante operation they conducted at Ashaiman, a densely populated town near Tema, in the Grea...


Doubling down on anti-gay bill

Pic: @AnitahAmong
Pic: @AnitahAmong

Uganda's parliament is set to pass a new law that criminalises identifying as gay, lesbian or transgender, same sex marriage, and the promotion of homosexuality.


Tinubu's last trick: from godfather to Kabiyesi

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

Opposition contenders question the ruling party candidate's victory in elections marred by technical failures, sporadic violence and a historically low turnout

The next act of Nigeria's presidential election drama has started with fire and fury. At one end of the stage stands the official winner, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose victory was annou...


Energy plan riles ANC factions and vested interests

André de Ruyter. Pic: Sumaya Hisham/Reuters/Alamy
André de Ruyter. Pic: Sumaya Hisham/Reuters/Alamy

The budget's debt relief for Eskom will impose targets and hasten privatisation but offers no short-term relief from power cuts

The explosive television interview by André de Ruyter, outgoing chief executive of ailing electricity utility Eskom on 21 February, which upstaged Finance Minister Enoch God...


ANC cabinet contenders step up lobbying

President Cyril Ramaphosa delivering his response to the 2023 State of the Nation Address debate. Pic: @PresidencyZA
President Cyril Ramaphosa delivering his response to the 2023 State of the Nation Address debate. Pic: @PresidencyZA

President Ramaphosa is using party committees to consolidate his grip ahead of national elections next year

South Africans, still buckling under the strain of crippling daily power cuts with no end in sight, are waiting for the appointment of a Minister of Electricity, announced by Presi...


Elite sets itself for lithium boom

Sabi Star Mine. Pic: @dereckgoto TW
Sabi Star Mine. Pic: @dereckgoto TW

The government has banned exports of the mineral and set up its own lucrative deal via a military-linked company to sell to China

With global demand for lithium soaring – prices went up more than 100% in 2022 and are expected to keep rising – Zimbabwe could be poised for a bonanza. The country's l...

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Capital crisis in the continent

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

Reeling from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, African economies need investment to boost growth

Over a year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered another shock to a global economy recovering slowly from the pandemic, Africa's economies are counting the cost of rocketin...


Weah stays in pole position

Pic: @GeorgeWeahOff TW
Pic: @GeorgeWeahOff TW

The controversial president has a poor governing record, but no candidate looks strong enough to defeat him in October’s poll

The temperature is rising fast in the run-up to Liberia's parliamentary and presidential election in October. Last month, President George Weah used the occasion of his sixth annua...


A junta that's going nowhere

Assimi Goïta. Pic: Habib Kouyate/Xinhua/Alamy
Assimi Goïta. Pic: Habib Kouyate/Xinhua/Alamy

The five ruling colonels are digging in for a long stay – but neither Wagner's mercenaries nor the army are stemming the jihadist tide


Border troubles threaten the region

Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti and Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno (Mahamat 'Kaka'). Pic: GeneralDagllo FB
Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti and Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno (Mahamat 'Kaka'). Pic: GeneralDagllo FB

The Chad-Sudan frontier and the restive militias which straddle it are looming larger as tensions rise