Far from mediating peace deals in Africa, the rival Gulf monarchies are exacerbating conflict
The outbreak of controlled hostilities between the monarchies of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates in December is deepening fissures across East Africa and the Horn. There are...
A fierce crackdown and a fractured opposition decisively shifted the contest long before the votes were counted
President Yoweri Museveni was expected to retain power following the 15 January polls. But few anticipated he would win with such a margin or that the ruling party...
Oppositionists make progress on a unity deal as insurgents tighten their grip on Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia
Ethiopia is trapped in a stalemate. With military victory impossible and political consensus unreachable, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government is falling back on divide and rule. The prime...
Having claimed a global success in its hosting of Afcon, Morocco now turns from the spectacle back to the business of maintaining stability
Until its chaotic final on the evening of 18 January, Morocco had enjoyed an exceptional Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon), marked by state-of-the-art stadia served by new motorways...
There are reasons for optimism on growth and inflation but concerns on the cost of Africa’s debts persist
After a year of global uncertainty during which Africa’s economies were hit by the tariff war fallout, deep cuts in official development assistance (ODA), and the impact of...
Senior commanders ignored the President’s instruction to restrict Iran’s role in China’s naval exercise off Cape Town
The confrontation over Pretoria’s security ties with Tehran – specifically its participation in South African-hosted naval exercises – underlines the erosion of civilian control over the military and...
The reshuffled ministerial team reinforces the President’s authoritarian stance after the election killings
The ministerial reshuffle announced on 8 January powerfully refutes claims by defenders of President Samia Suluhu Hassan that her authoritarian policies ahead of the 29 October election were...
Dar es Salaam’s transit reforms are stalling due to vested interests and use of opaque private companies
On 8 January, 49 buses were delivered to Dar es Salaam port – with another 50 due later this month – as part of an emergency response to...
The only unknown in Uganda’s election is the margin of the incumbent’s violent victory, as citizens look forward with alarm to the prospect of his son’s rule
Ahead of polling day on 15 January the streets of Kampala were thronged not with citizens, but with lines of armoured personnel carriers and uniformed police and soldiers...
By paying $9 million to US lobbyists through a pop-up law firm, the Abuja government has outbid Christian secessionists
Scrambling in the wake of US President Donald J Trump’s threat to ‘go into Nigeria guns ablazing’ on 1 November to end what he called a ‘Christian genocide’,...
The death of Raila Odinga last October left a void in Kenyan politics and at the heart of his Orange Democratic Movement. ODM was Raila’s fiefdom. It was...
The baton as Africa’s leading carmaker has passed to Morocco, which produced over a million vehicles last year, overtaking South Africa. South Africa made 554,613 vehicles between January...
Diezani Alison-Madueke, Nigeria’s former Petroleum Minister (2010-15), appeared at Southwark Crown Court on 19 January ahead of her trial on 26 January. She faces six bribery charges, including...
A master of electoral politicking, the president is still threatened by rumbling insecurity and shockingly low federal revenues
Only a fool hell-bent on a suicidal path can dare to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, 73, in 2027, says Vice President Kashim Shettima. Discounting politicians’ default sycophancy,...
The wave of military coups is still challenging the regional bloc’s governance prescriptions
The results from Benin’s parliamentary elections on 11 January will decide whether there is a strong opposition challenge ahead of April’s presidential elections likely to be won by...
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President Mahama had the wind in his sails through 2025. This year will bring a mixed bag of golden opportunities and make-or-break need for reform
The honeymoon period for President John Dramani Mahama will come to an abrupt end in 2026 as political and economic challenges mount. Top of the list will be...
For Goïta, Tiani and Traoré, the year offers bleak prospects of any progress in the war on jihad
Niger is the second Sahel state (Burkina Faso was the first in 2023) to announce a draconian national mobilisation. A resolution adopted by its cabinet of ministers on...
After winning his fourth presidential election, Alassane Ouattara is under pressure to organise a succession plan
With the presidential and legislative elections done and dusted amidst much indifference (the 28 December legislative elections attracted less than a third of eligible voters), political minds can...
Opening one of the biggest iron ore mines in the world helped General Doumbouya win the election – now people want to see the benefits
General Mamady Doumbouya is a happy man at the start of the New Year. Since his election on 28 December as Guinea’s first nonpartisan candidate (he hardly bothered...
Will President and Prime Minister agree to set aside differences and work together to meet great expectations and stop jihadists on the border?
This has to be the year of delivery for President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko as their administration moves into midterm, the electoral triumphs of...
With the highest regional growth rate, East Africa’s economies are vulnerable to external forces intervening in disputes
In 2026 Djibouti finds itself at the centre of the growing regional divide between Somalia, Eritrea and Egypt on the one hand and the opposing alliance of Ethiopia,...
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Bujumbura’s army took a hammering from Rwandan and M23 militia forces when it tried to help Kinshasa
President Évariste Ndayishimiye’s New Year jitters after the capture by M23 and Rwandan troops of Uvira, a city 5 kilometres from the Burundian border, will hardly have been...
For now, Prime Minister Abiy’s federal government lacks the military capacity to escalate its war of words with Eritrea
The dark clouds of a new Ethiopia-Eritrea war are set to linger over Addis Ababa in 2026. Yet despite an ongoing risk of escalation, hostilities will likely remain...
The president will use 2026 to strengthen the broad-based coalition that is likely to carry him to re-election in August 2027
An early test will be internal elections in William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) – initially supposed to take place in mid-2024 but which will now happen on...
Kigali holds its economy on course as it funds its Donbas strategy in neighbouring Congo-Kinshasa
Rwanda has kept its extensive operations in Congo-Kinshasa off-budget by reviving its military’s involvement in the eastern Congolese mineral trade. Evidence of increased military spending could have derailed...
National unity, progress against Al Shabaab and international disarray flow from Israel’s recognition of the Somali statelet, along with more unknowns
Any joy at Mogadishu’s successful completion of local elections on 26 December was quickly extinguished by the shock news of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state,...
Investment may plummet and growth may slow if no state agencies are held to account for the brutal repression of election protests
Keeping the economy afloat in the face of international moves to suspend funding and investments is the biggest challenge facing President Samia Suluhu Hassan as she attempts to...
Geopolitical tensions are rising, clashes between the powers behind the warring parties are increasing, and the communal element of the fighting is worsening
Sudan’s conflict is changing. What started as a military confrontation between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in April 2023 has evolved into something else...
Few doubt that Yoweri Museveni will extend his presidency into its 41st year with elections on 15 January. What happens next is far less clear
The government of Yoweri Museveni is leaving nothing to chance, and the president’s son (and presumed heir), Defence Forces chief General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has been put at the...