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Somalia

Funding woes dog anti-Islamic State war as Washington joins in

INSURGENCY IN SOMALIA: Africom joins the fight against Islamic State. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
INSURGENCY IN SOMALIA: Africom joins the fight against Islamic State. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Puntland’s war on Da’ish drags on and piracy revives as President Said Deni prioritises electioneering above paying for troops

Puntland’s bitter campaign against Islamic State (IS or Da’ish), backed by United States special forces, shows no sign of let-up despite 11 months of fighting and the capture of several Da'ish bases. For Puntland, a semi-autonomous regional state government in Somalia, it’s turning into a war of attrition. IS, the Islamist rival to the long-established Al Shabaab in the region, can still carry out ambushes and terror attacks.

Hassan faces foreign anger and braces for more unrest

Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia
Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia

The government risks losing aid funds and billions in investment in reaction to the election violence as it prepares for Independence Day protests

As the scale of bloodshed during the 29 October general election hits home, President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government has triggered the country’s deepest crisis for decades, threatening the...

Hassan Sheikh takes poll position

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Pic: @HassanSMohamud
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Pic: @HassanSMohamud

The President hopes he can remain in power by winning a ‘one person one vote’ election next year, or get his term extended if delays persist

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has strengthened his position in the run-up to the presidential election next year by skilfully dividing the opposition. He is sticking with his call...

The fight for the Red Sea escalates

THE FIGHT FOR THE RED SEA: Ethiopia's maritime ambitions clash with Eritrea's hard-fought sovereignty. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
THE FIGHT FOR THE RED SEA: Ethiopia's maritime ambitions clash with Eritrea's hard-fought sovereignty. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Commercial interests, naval ambitions and shifting alliances are raising the risk of war – as regional states pick sides

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly insisted that Ethiopia must secure direct access to the Red Sea. In his October address to parliament, he called it ‘inevitable’, citing...

Abu Dhabi pressures Mahamat Kaka

Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno receives quadripartite delegation on Sudan crisis, Rome, October 2025. Pic: mahamatidrissdeby.td
Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno receives quadripartite delegation on Sudan crisis, Rome, October 2025. Pic: mahamatidrissdeby.td

The RSF’s seizure of El Fasher exposed the fragility of the Ndjamena regime and its dependence on United Arab Emirates funding

The seizure of El Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 26 October prompted louder calls from United States and European Union politicians for sanctions against the...

Spinning out of control

Salva Kiir Mayardit, November 2025. Pic: Office of the President – Republic of South Sudan
Salva Kiir Mayardit, November 2025. Pic: Office of the President – Republic of South Sudan

The dismissal of Salva Kiir’s closest ally in a chaotic reshuffle has left him looking increasingly isolated

With the economy racing downhill, the peace process ever more fragile and the political landscape dominated by the treason trial of former First Vice-President Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon...

Tinubu pushes the multi-party system over a cliff

People’s Democratic Party headquarters sealed off behind a barbed wire cordon
People’s Democratic Party headquarters sealed off behind a barbed wire cordon

Instead of attacking the government on insecurity and economic woes, the opposition wastes its energy on factional battles

Two resonant images sum up the decline and fall of multi-party politics in Nigeria. The first is of the headquarters of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) at its...

Museveni looks to an oil boost

Uganda: Exports and growth rise. Debt and deficit worsen. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Uganda: Exports and growth rise. Debt and deficit worsen. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Growth and exports climb ahead of national elections, as the government pins its hopes on extractive revenues

President Yoweri Museveni and his ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party approach January’s national elections with the National Unity Platform (NUP) opposition targeting his record on education, health...

Ramokgopa takes a two trillion rand gamble on gas

SOUTH AFRICA'S GAS FIELDS: Facing legal, political and environmental battles. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
SOUTH AFRICA'S GAS FIELDS: Facing legal, political and environmental battles. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Legal setbacks, stalled offshore projects and a looming supply crisis threaten both industry and climate targets

The Integrated Resource Plan pushed through cabinet by Minister for Energy and Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa last month is ambitious in scope and financing – envisaging a 2.23 trillion...

Biya sworn in as resistance ebbs

Paul Biya. Pic: @presidentpaulbiya
Paul Biya. Pic: @presidentpaulbiya

With Tchiroma in exile and state repression in full flow the pendulum has swung back to the state as oppositionists ponder resignation or armed struggle

The opposition, fixed on the exiled figure of Issa Tchiroma Bakary, is beginning to lose heart after President Paul Biya was sworn in for his eighth term on...

Fano’s battlefield gains show Abiy’s shaky grip on the regions

Captured Ethiopian Federal Forces. Pic: @martinplaut
Captured Ethiopian Federal Forces. Pic: @martinplaut

Federal government is pushed back hard as opposition forces in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray form a loose anti-regime front, redrawing the political map in the Horn

After recent victories by insurgents in Amhara, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has been showing signs of the strain as its opponents join forces and launch heavier challenges....

Brussels pushes Global Gateway to rival US-China deal-making

G20-Africa High-Level Dialogue on Debt Sustainability, Cost of Capital, and Financing Reforms hosted by the African Union, 10 November 2025, Addis Ababa. Pic: @APRMorg
G20-Africa High-Level Dialogue on Debt Sustainability, Cost of Capital, and Financing Reforms hosted by the African Union, 10 November 2025, Addis Ababa. Pic: @APRMorg

Eurocrats will argue for more transactional policies at the Luanda summit to secure critical minerals. But can the EU’s cash match its ambitions?

Africa Union and European Union leaders insist they want to ratchet up economic security ties ahead of their two-day summit starting in Angola on 25 November, just after...

The power behind Samia’s throne

Emmanuel Nchimbi, Samia Suluhu Hassan, Mwigulu Nchemba. Pic: FB
Emmanuel Nchimbi, Samia Suluhu Hassan, Mwigulu Nchemba. Pic: FB Mwigulu Nchemba FB

The technocrat and the party hack – that is the early assessment of new Prime Minister Mwigulu Nchemba and Vice-President Emmanuel Nchimbi, the two men tasked with fronting...

Warning lights as G20 looms

G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, Washington DC, October 2025. Pic: @g20org
G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, Washington DC, October 2025. Pic: @g20org

Business leaders sound the alarm over the country’s economic drift, despite signs of fiscal recovery

Tinubu’s policy paradox

NIGERIA: GROWTH AND REVENUES UP, BUT HOUSEHOLDS STRUGGLE. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
NIGERIA: GROWTH AND REVENUES UP, BUT HOUSEHOLDS STRUGGLE. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Food prices, shrinking purchasing power and insecurity underscore the disconnect between praise for reforms and everyday hardship

The contest reaches flashpoint

Issa Tchiroma Bakary
Issa Tchiroma Bakary

The President and his challenger marshal their forces while the loyalty of the security forces remains in the balance

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