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Somalia

Floods put fighting on hold

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud addresss the the East African Community. Pic: @HassanSMohamud
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud addresss the the East African Community. Pic: @HassanSMohamud

A 'once-in-a-century' deluge halted troops movements while the President went on a world tour to raise funds

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has November's unprecedentedly severe rains and floods to thank for the fact he has not paid the full political price for the setback government forces suffered against Al Shabaab at Osweyne in October. Critics say Mogadishu squandered a military advantage over the Islamist militia, and had to pull out of towns in Galgadug that had previously been captured at high cost.


South-west bias claims weaken Tinubu's standing

Inaugural Federal Executive Council with newly appointed ministers at the council chambers of the State House, Abuja, 28 August 2023. Pic: @officialABAT
Inaugural Federal Executive Council with newly appointed ministers at the council chambers of the State House, Abuja, 28 August 2023. Pic: @officialABAT

The President is accused of stacking the cabinet and the military with his fellow Yoruba – and the critics are getting louder

The government's policy team has won plaudits internationally but at home it is struggling to reignite the economy and the burden of its reforms is hitting middle-class and poorer ...


Much ado about Kidal

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

The junta's seizure of this key northern city from the Azawad coalition could create more problems than it solves

The victory of Forces armées maliennes (FAMa) and its Russian Wagner Group allies over the Coordination des mouvements de l'Azawad (CMA) for control of Kidal on 14 November ...


Will Tidjane Thiam's 'grand retour' succeed?

Tidjane Thiam. Pic: David Levenson / Alamy
Tidjane Thiam. Pic: David Levenson / Alamy

The former chief executive of Prudential and Credit Suisse is returning to national politics as presidential contender

A big choice faces the internal elections committee of the Parti démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI), the long-time ruling party now in opposition, as they prepare to...


Political fight intensifies over state transit company

Pic: transnet.net
Pic: transnet.net

Finance minister turns down bailout request from Transnet whose failings have cost the economy over US$26 billion

Tough decisions and strong political backing are needed to turn around the ailing state-owned transport and logistics company, Transnet which could face a ratings downgrade. Struct...


Wagner pays cash for digital influence

Drissa Meminta
Drissa Meminta

A leak from the Russian group's propaganda arm reveals payments for videos by West African bloggers and influencers on social media platforms

The Wagner Group has been paying West African social and digital media influencers and broadcasters for videos and blogs attacking France and supporting Russian narratives on the U...

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Darfuris face a global dereliction of duty

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

As the UN accuses the generals of 'verging on pure evil', the international system runs out of ideas and energy

As fighters from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) edge near to total control of the five states of Darfur, the human cost in terms of ethnic killings and deliberate starvation of civ...


Abiy spells out expansionist plans

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

The premier is targeting direct access to the Red Sea, a move that could destabilise the region

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose popularity has plummeted at home and abroad due to the war in Tigray, the chaos in Oromia, and now conflict in Amhara, appears to have a new plan t...


Trading dams for ports

Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli
Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli

Abiy's clumsy proposal to swap shares in the Nile dam for access to a port took the region by surprise

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed shocked allies and enemies alike when he announced on 13 October that access to the Red Sea was an 'existential' issue for his landlocked countr...


Tinubu tightens grip, opposition regroups

Pic: @officialABAT
Pic: @officialABAT

Violence, low turnouts and blatant vote rigging raise doubts about the APC's latest state election victories

Such was the nature of the victories for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the off-cycle state governorship elections on 11 November in Kogi and Imo states, that they h...


Godongwana's realism unsettles ANC

Enoch Godongwana. Pic: GovernmentZA CC BY-ND 2.0 DEED
Enoch Godongwana. Pic: GovernmentZA CC BY-ND 2.0 DEED

Ministers are torn between tax hikes and spending cuts in the tightest fiscal crunch for 30 years

After several opinion surveys forecast support for the African National Congress (ANC) dropping below 50% for the first time in next year's national election, the government is str...


ZANU-PF's impostor plot

Bishop Tapfumaneyi Masaya Pic: @CCCZimbabwe
Bishop Tapfumaneyi Masaya Pic: @CCCZimbabwe

The ruling party sows discord in the opposition as a rogue activist sacks their MPs

Behind the bizarre shenanigans in which the speaker of parliament endorses the recall of at least 15 opposition MPs at the hands of a man widely believed to be working for the ruli...


Weah-Boakai election race tests 20-year peace settlement

George Weah casts his vote, Monrovia, October 2023. Pic: Seth/Xinhua/Alamy
George Weah casts his vote, Monrovia, October 2023. Pic: Seth/Xinhua/Alamy

In the closest election since the civil war, voters choose between the two front-runners in the presidential run-off

Regional stability and economic progress weighed heavily in the second round of the presidential elections as voters trooped to the polling stations on 14 November. The early signs...


Presidents Mahamat Kaka and Macron meet on security threats

Emmanuel Macron and Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno 'Kaka' at the Élysée Palace. Pic: Julien Mattia/Le Pictorium/Alamy
Emmanuel Macron and Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno 'Kaka' at the Élysée Palace. Pic: Julien Mattia/Le Pictorium/Alamy

Paris needs Ndjamena's cooperation more than ever after the rupture of its ties with Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso

The worsening regional crisis triggered by the war in Sudan and Chad's own national reconciliation process dominated the visit of President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno 'Kaka' t...


Into the arms of Abdel Fattah el Sisi

Pic: @AlsisiOfficial
Pic: @AlsisiOfficial

The likelihood that the Israel-Hamas war will trigger a refugee crisis has pushed Brussels to strike a migration deal with Cairo

Fears that a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza by the Israel Defense Forces will create tens of thousands of refugees have prompted the European Union to reorganise its relations ...


Amid regional chaos, a glimmer of hope in Jeddah and Addis

Greater Nile Petroleum Oil Company Tower, September 2023 Headquarters of the Sudanese Armed Forces, April 2023. Pic: ©2023 Maxar Technologies.
Greater Nile Petroleum Oil Company Tower, September 2023 Headquarters of the Sudanese Armed Forces, April 2023. Pic: ©2023 Maxar Technologies.

As the devastating stalemate between Burhan's and Hemeti's forces continues, the pressure for a ceasefire is mounting

The resumption of peace talks in Jeddah between Sudan's warring factions on 26 October just as the Israel-Hamas war was escalating was more than a show of diplomatic multi-tasking ...


Green hydrogen shoots

Pic: @hagegeingob
Pic: @hagegeingob

A €1 billion fund for projects developing 'green' hydrogen and critical raw materials has just been signed off in Brussels by President Hage Geingob and European Commission Pr...


The end of Tinubu's beginning

Pic: @officialABAT
Pic: @officialABAT

The public fight over the president's history polarises politics and reinforces the need for judicial reform


Ruto's plan to profit from the ports hits problems

President William Ruto and Governor Abdulswamad Nassir visit the the Port of Mombasa, November 2022. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
President William Ruto and Governor Abdulswamad Nassir visit the the Port of Mombasa, November 2022. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

The government aims to raise quick cash from privatising state assets but opposition is mounting


Biya circles the wagons

Paul Biya. Pic: Stephane Lemouton/Abaca Press/Alamy
Paul Biya. Pic: Stephane Lemouton/Abaca Press/Alamy

Efforts to coup-proof the regime include suppressing army officer networks and media organisations and banning references to military coups