Jump to navigation
South Africa

The budget fight threatening to shatter the coalition

Enoch Godongwana. Pic: GovernmentZA
Enoch Godongwana. Pic: GovernmentZA

Both the ANC’s Ramaphosa and the DA’s Steenhuisen are fighting to preserve power-sharing – but for vastly different reasons

When Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana failed to secure backing within the Government of National Unity (GNU) on 12 March for his proposal to raise VAT from 15% to 17% to finance this year’s budget, he handed a powerful weapon to the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA). Godongwana, an African National Congress (ANC) stalwart, faced opposition to his VAT hike across the political spectrum – from the extreme right to the two main populist parties, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party. That should have allowed the DA to lead parliamentary opposition to Godongwana’s plan, but it failed to seize the opportunity.

Washington tries a new push in Kinshasa

Massad Boulos meets with Félix Tshisekedi. Pic: @Presidence_RDC
Massad Boulos meets with Félix Tshisekedi. Pic: @Presidence_RDC

President Trump’s special advisor is testing transactional diplomacy amid the conflict and the continent’s biggest reserves of critical minerals

Washington’s latest intervention in Kinshasa, led by Massad Fares Boulos, senior advisor to United States President Donald Trump, is disrupting the calculations of Congolese politicians and warlords. Boulos,...

READ FOR FREE

How Trump’s in-law shut down the Kinshasa lobbyists

Massad Boulos meets with Félix Tshisekedi. Pic: @Presidence_RDC
Massad Boulos meets with Félix Tshisekedi. Pic: @Presidence_RDC

After meeting the US President’s senior Africa envoy, President Tshisekedi has blocked millions of dollars’ worth of consultancy deals

After agreeing contracts with a string of K-Street lobby shops worth close to US$8 million with mandate to broker a mineral access deal with US President Donald Trump’s...

Ruto’s fiscal gamble – can he break the debt trap by 2027?

Pic: @WilliamsRuto
Pic: @WilliamsRuto

Government looks to China and the UAE for funding as growth and revenues fall short and it bets on a pre-election spending boom

At the heart of President William Ruto’s calculus ahead of his re-election bid in 2027 is a bet that Kenya’s economy will have recovered enough to allow him...

IMF sees economic light in Addis amid political gloom

ETHIOPIA: OPTIMISM ON GROWTH, REVENUES, DEBT REDUCTION. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
ETHIOPIA: OPTIMISM ON GROWTH, REVENUES, DEBT REDUCTION. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The Fund expects high growth and increasing tax revenues as Abiy Ahmed’s pro-market reforms bed in

As Ethiopia’s government grapples with insurgent forces in its Amhara, Oromo and Tigray provinces and heightened tensions with neighbouring Eritrea and Somalia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his...

Economic rebound complicates debt talks

Abiy Ahmed Ali. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli
Abiy Ahmed Ali. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli

Officials in Addis Ababa say the restructuring is almost agreed – but commercial creditors want better terms as growth picks up

Ethiopian officials are making progress towards restructuring US$8.4 billion external debts owed to official creditors, announcing an ‘agreement in principle’ on 21 March but they are locked into...

Ailing Salva ups the ante

Benjamin Bol Mel and Salva Kiir Mayardit. Pic: @benbolmel
Benjamin Bol Mel and Salva Kiir Mayardit. Pic: @benbolmel

Salva has made aggressive moves with Ugandan backing as a visa row with the US marks the superpower’s turn away from its one-time friend

Amid visible signs of worsening ill-health, President Salva Kiir Mayardit has been moving to protect his authority and succession, just as the house arrest of First Vice-President Riek...

Mamady Doumbouya plots a popular mandate

Mamady Doumbaya. Pic: @presi_doumbouya
Mamady Doumbaya. Pic: @presi_doumbouya

The sudden release of former dictator Camara fits with the junta leader’s plan to silence party politics and fashion a presidential election victory

One is a self-promoted general – Mamady Doumbouya, head of the military junta, the Comité national du rassemblement pour le développement (CNRD), in power since September 2021. The...

Biya’s grip in question ahead of the October elections

Paul Biya. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA
Paul Biya. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA

Political insiders are circling as the 92-year-old leader is eclipsed by the ambitious secretary general Ngoh Ngoh

Assuming he wins elections expected in October, by the end of his next term Cameroonian President Paul Biya will be 99 years old. He would have ruled the...

Cash, platitudes but no peace

Pic: @FCDOGovUK
Pic: @FCDOGovUK

About US$750 million in fresh humanitarian aid – €522m ($592m) from the European Union and £120m ($158m) from the United Kingdom – was on the table along with...

Spurning talks, Burhan returns to a wrecked palace and capital

SUDAN: BURHAN'S ARMY IS BACK IN THE PALACE After retaking the capital, the SAF has a long march west to unify the country. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
SUDAN: BURHAN'S ARMY IS BACK IN THE PALACE After retaking the capital, the SAF has a long march west to unify the country. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The radical nationalists and Islamists helping the army defeat the Rapid Support Forces in Khartoum will haunt the new regime

On 15 April 2025, General Abdel Fattah al Burhan will commemorate two years of war against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from the presidential palace in Khartoum. As...

READ FOR FREE

Tinubu bets the farm on Rivers State

Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas (rtd) takes oath of office before President Bola Tinubu, State House, Abuja, March 2025. Pic: @NGRPresident
Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas (rtd) takes oath of office before President Bola Tinubu, State House, Abuja, March 2025. Pic: @NGRPresident

Determined to control the state’s politics and oil before the 2027 elections, the President has suspended an opposition governor

Stories by country

Footer Map