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The electoral calculus appears to favour Odinga but ethnic and regional loyalties could provoke violence and millions of voters remain undecided

Kenya’s 50th Independence celebrations at the end of the year will be shaped by the general elections in March, the first since the violently disputed 2007 polls. This will be a two-horse race, pitting Prime Minister Raila Oginga Odinga’s new Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD) against a fast-rising Jubilee Alliance, led by International Criminal Court indictees Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta and William Kipchirchir arap Ruto. Yet an estimated five million electors are believed to be undecided, most in politically marginal regions, and the appearance of several minority electoral coalitions will set up one of the most intriguing polls since Independence in 1963.

(This article contains approximately 1484 words)

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Raila Oginga Odinga, , Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, William Kipchirchir arap Ruto, Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi, Mwai Kibaki, Mudavadi and the mandarins, Jomo Kenyatta, John Michuki, Njenga Karume, Daniel arap Moi, Njeru Githae, United States, Barack Obama, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, Possible flashpoints, David Kimaiyo