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DA triumvirate bets on black votes to break its political ceiling

Ashor Sarupen, Geordin Hill-Lewis and Solly Msimanga. Pic: @Our_DA
Ashor Sarupen, Geordin Hill-Lewis and Solly Msimanga. Pic: @Our_DA

Geordin Hill-Lewis's election as Democratic Alliance leader at its biggest-ever congress gives the party a credible shot at winning the country's top cities

The second largest party in South Africa’s governing coalition, the Democratic Alliance (DA) has renewed its leadership at the biggest national conference in its history and set its sights on taking charge of the country’s major cities in local elections by the end of the year and leading the coalition in the 2029 national poll.


Hotel scandal undermines Mutharika’s reform claims

Amaryllis Hotel, Blantyre. Pic: amaryllishotelsmw
Amaryllis Hotel, Blantyre. Pic: amaryllishotelsmw

A parliamentary probe into an overpriced deal is overshadowing the President’s return to power

Barely six months into his second term, President Peter Mutharika’s administration is engulfed in overlapping scandals that are raising questions about his commitment to end corruption.


Rabat buys influence in Washington, branding Polisario as the Houthis of West Africa

Nasser Bourita. Pic: @MarocDiplomatie
Nasser Bourita. Pic: @MarocDiplomatie

King Mohammed VI’s government is trying to convince the White House and Congress to sanction the Sahrawi independence movement, claiming it has links to Iran

Morocco is aiming to tighten its grip on Western Sahara by getting the United States Congress to designate the Sahrawi independence movement’s political arm, the Polisario Front, as...


Debt time bomb blows open the Sonko-Faye pact

Ousmane Sonko. Pic: @SonkoOfficiel
Ousmane Sonko. Pic: @SonkoOfficiel

Dakar is paying the creditors but the political split between the president and the premier is widening

As Beijing has started to hold back vital funding, Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko faces intensifying pressure to reach an accommodation with the IMF. The open rift between the...


Tinubu’s oil reforms hit a wall of old debts and new sabotage

NNPC management's visit to the Dangote Refinery in Ibeju-Lekki, February 2026. Pic: nnpclimited
NNPC management's visit to the Dangote Refinery in Ibeju-Lekki, February 2026. Pic: nnpclimited

The President is moving faster to unlock stalled investments but forward crude sales and pipeline attacks are cutting into the oil price windfall

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu came to office in May 2023 promising to reverse two decades of decline in Nigeria’s petroleum sector, and on paper the progress is real:...


Mnangagwa’s war on the constitution

Emmerson Mnangagwa presides over the 391st Ordinary Session of the ZANU-PF Politburo, Harare, March 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Emmerson Mnangagwa presides over the 391st Ordinary Session of the ZANU-PF Politburo, Harare, March 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Arrests, abductions and armed militias mark ZANU-PF’s campaign for a constitutional amendment that would end direct presidential elections

When the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front ZANU-PF gazetted Constitution Amendment Bill No.3 on 16 February, it launched what opponents are calling a slow-motion constitutional coup. Senior...


ZiG, fuel and broken promises

Big5ZiG Awareness Campaign – Reserve Bank Chief of Staff Moris Mpofu explains BiG 5 ZiG features, Bulawayo Province, March 2026. Pic: rbz.co.zw
Big5ZiG Awareness Campaign – Reserve Bank Chief of Staff Moris Mpofu explains BiG 5 ZiG features, Bulawayo Province, March 2026. Pic: rbz.co.zw

A forced shift to the local currency for government contracts and a 39% overnight fuel price rise are squeezing businesses and workers owed billions by the state. On...


Boom at the top, struggle at the bottom

ANGOLA: DEBT BURDEN CONTINUES TO STRAIN NATIONAL FINANCES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ANGOLA: DEBT BURDEN CONTINUES TO STRAIN NATIONAL FINANCES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The oil revenues are rising, but with over 40% of the budget swallowed by debt servicing, the gains are not reaching those who need them most

When the Iran war pushed Brent crude well past the $100 mark, Angola’s government responded with caution. For a country that budgeted 2026 revenues assuming oil prices at...


Lourenço cashes in on the oil bonanza

João Lourenço. Pic: PresidedaRepublica
João Lourenço. Pic: PresidedaRepublica

The war in the Middle East has prompted Luanda to return to the Eurobond market

Less than six months after oil exporter Angola issued US$1.75 billion in Eurobonds to support its 2025 spending plans, Luanda has returned to the markets after the Iran...


Siege mentality pushes politics to brink

SOUTH SUDAN: THE RISKS OF A RETURN TO ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
SOUTH SUDAN: THE RISKS OF A RETURN TO ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Juba looks determined to escalate the fighting by marginalising Riek Machar’s camp and unilaterally rewriting the 2018 peace accord

Impervious to African and international criticism, the government in Juba is pressing ahead with a militarist strategy that has led regional experts to argue that the country has...


The loss of a peacemaker: Adieu Nicholas Haysom

Nicholas Haysom briefs reporters after the Security Council meeting on the situations in Sudan and South Sudan, New York.March 2023. Pic: UN Photo/Rick Bajornas
Nicholas Haysom briefs reporters after the Security Council meeting on the situations in Sudan and South Sudan, New York.March 2023. Pic: UN Photo/Rick Bajornas

Fink Haysom, the anti-apartheid lawyer who helped end Sudan's north-south war and spent his final years trying to mediate in South Sudan serial crises, has died

The death of Nicholas ‘Fink’ Haysom in New York on 17 March strips the United Nations of its most tenacious voice for accountability in South Sudan and is...


How Juba is engineering mass hunger

UNMISS Peacekeepers in Akobo, South Sudan, 2018. Pic: UN Photo/Nektarios Markogiannis
UNMISS Peacekeepers in Akobo, South Sudan, 2018. Pic: UN Photo/Nektarios Markogiannis

Forced displacement is pushing Jonglei towards famine conditions as the government expels the very agencies trying to avert catastrophe

In late January, government forces ordered civilians, UN personnel and humanitarian workers to move from several counties in Jonglei, including from the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)...


Tshisekedi purge ahead of term limit test

Modeste Bahati Lukwebo. Pic: @PLukwebo
Modeste Bahati Lukwebo. Pic: @PLukwebo

With the Senate’s last dissident sidelined and the US focused on minerals, Tshisekedi’s third-term bid is advancing

When Modeste Bahati Lukwebo was hustled from the Senate Vice-Presidency on 18 March, accused of fiscal fraud tied to a brewery in Kivu-Sud, few in Kinshasa’s political class...


The Americans are buying

Guy-Robert Lukama. Pic: gecamines
Guy-Robert Lukama. Pic: gecamines

Central Intelligence Agency veterans and Green Berets are buying Congolese assets under a pact with Washington – a logic that also explains why the United States is unlikely...


Wadagni chases a mandate

Romuald Wadagni. Pic: @WadagniRomuald
Romuald Wadagni. Pic: @WadagniRomuald

With real competition stripped from the race, the finance minister’s biggest obstacle is persuading citizens to turn out at all

As Romuald Wadagni approaches presidential election day on 12 April, abstentions pose the greatest threat to his hopes of securing a decisive mandate. With the main opposition...


After the Sahel rout, Europe courts the coast

Kaja Kallas and Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang at the signing of the EU-Ghana Security and Defence Partnership. Pic: @kajakallas
Kaja Kallas and Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang at the signing of the EU-Ghana Security and Defence Partnership. Pic: @kajakallas

Expelled from the Sahel and estranged from Washington, the EU has signed its first African security pact with Ghana and wants Nigeria as an Atlantic anchor

Amid its fraying ties with the United States, the European Union is shoring up defences on its eastern flank and negotiating security deals in North and West Africa...


Winnie Odinga tries to build bridges as the ODM fractures

Winnie Odinga. Pic: WinnieKaziOdinga
Winnie Odinga. Pic: WinnieKaziOdinga

The daughter of opposition leader Raila Odinga is continuing the family dynasty and its shaky alliance with President Ruto

The Odinga family strengthened its grip on the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) following a Special National Delegates Convention (SDC) on 26 March but its political base will be...


Mahama gets caught in the cocoa trap

Price adjustment painful but necessary to sustain the cocoa sector – Randy Abbey, Cocobod CE, 18 March 2026. Pic: cocobod.gh
Price adjustment painful but necessary to sustain the cocoa sector – Randy Abbey, Cocobod CE, 18 March 2026. Pic: cocobod.gh

A mid-season farmgate price cut of nearly 30% has sent farmers into the streets, exposed Cocobod's $3 billion debt mountain and is damaging the President politically

When President John Dramani Mahama's National Democratic Congress swept back to power in December 2024 on a wave of popular goodwill, its pledge to nearly double the cocoa...


Cocobod’s last crop as the cocoa state hits the buffers

Pic: cocobod.gh
Pic: cocobod.gh

With output halved and farmers threatening revolt, the Mahama government chooses between radical reform for the cocoa board or its dissolution

When President John Dramani Mahama convened an emergency Cabinet meeting in February to address what officials privately described as a ‘structural heart attack’ in Ghana's cocoa sector, few...


A vulnerable recovery under pressure

Abdel Fattah el Sisi meets with PM Mostafa Madbouly and the Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority Osama Rabie to discuss the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East on the Suez Canal, 15 March 2026. Pic: presidency.eg
Abdel Fattah el Sisi meets with PM Mostafa Madbouly and the Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority Osama Rabie to discuss the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East on the Suez Canal, 15 March 2026. Pic: presidency.eg

The Iran war is battering an already fragile economy, though Egypt could still reap some gains from the crisis


Madlanga tests presidential power

Mbuyiseli Madlanga. Pic: @OCJ_RSA
Mbuyiseli Madlanga. Pic: @OCJ_RSA

Eighty days in, the commission of inquiry has exposed corruption, destroyed careers and trapped Ramaphosa between legal process and political survival


Macron tries a multipolar reset at Nairobi summit

Emmanuel Macron and William Ruto at the AU-EU summit, Luanda, Angola, November 2025. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
Emmanuel Macron and William Ruto at the AU-EU summit, Luanda, Angola, November 2025. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

As France hosts its first-ever summit in Anglophone Africa bringing in Kenya, Uganda, Germany and India, it tries to drop the old post-colonial playbook


Tinubu hollows out the opposition

Bola Ahmed Tinubu and King Charles III, Windsor Castle, 18 January 2026. Pic: officialasiwajubat
Bola Ahmed Tinubu and King Charles III, Windsor Castle, 18 January 2026. Pic: officialasiwajubat

With rivals co-opted, detained or outmanoeuvred, and a new electoral law, the President has engineered near-total political dominance


The one-party state and its discontents

William Ruto, 10 March 2026. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto, 10 March 2026. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

The ODM’s oligarchs are determined to build a coalition with President Ruto – but the party’s rebels are gathering support


The heir presumptive goes on the offensive

Anita Among and Muhoozi Kainerugaba. Pic: @AnitahAmong
Anita Among and Muhoozi Kainerugaba. Pic: @AnitahAmong

With Museveni's seventh term secured, his son General Muhoozi is silencing rivals and packing the cabinet with loyalists