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Arms, gas and fertiliser – Rabat outflanks Algiers with a Trump-linked lobbyist

King Mohammed VI. Pic: @Marocdiplo_EN
King Mohammed VI. Pic: @Marocdiplo_EN

After recognising Israel in return for US backing on Western Sahara, Morocco is maximising its commercial gains

Morocco is vying with Egypt to become United States President Donald J Trump’s main ally in North Africa, after recognising Israel, with which it has long-standing security ties, and launching negotiations for arms supplies and pipeline financing. It is also putting its neighbour and key rival Algeria, which has state security agreements and gas contracts with US companies, in the shade.


ICJ climate ruling opens floodgates for billions in pollution payouts

Earth asking for help. Pic: un.org
Earth asking for help. Pic: un.org

The UN court’s opinion defining greenhouse gas emissions as ‘internationally wrongful acts’ argues for climate finance to become a legal obligation for the main polluting countries

The ruling by the UN’s top court that countries may be held legally accountable for their greenhouse gas emissions and the environmental damage they cause could help reshape...


Cocoa and coffee farmers facing trade chaos as Brussels pushes deforestation crackdown

Cocoa in Kumba, Cameroon. Pic: Silvia Truessel / stock.adobe.com
Cocoa in Kumba, Cameroon. Pic: Silvia Truessel / stock.adobe.com

Smallholders to be hit hardest as EU and ‘Big Chocolate’ resolve to impose new traceability rules next year

Africa’s cocoa and coffee farmers are stepping up pressure on the European Commission to postpone its anti-deforestation law due to come into force next year. They are calling...


Paris resets military ties in Africa, tilting to Europe

Thani Mohamed-Soilihi. Pic: diplomatie.gouv.fr
Thani Mohamed-Soilihi. Pic: diplomatie.gouv.fr

After their exit from the Sahel, French troops prioritise flexible partnerships and blunting Russia’s influence

When France’s Secretary of State for la Francophonie and International Partnerships, Thani Mohamed-Soilihi told journalists on 27 July that the security crisis in the Sahel was no longer...


General Tiani tightens grip as regional rumblings grow louder

General Abdourahamane Tiani. Pic: FB Présidence De La République Du Niger
General Abdourahamane Tiani. Pic: FB Présidence De La République Du Niger

After failing to repel determined jihadist attacks, the Sahel juntas crack down on internal dissent

The latest round of arrests in Mali, amid reports of a planned putsch on 10 August, looks unlikely to change the centralisation of power in Bamako or in...


Tinubu’s biggest challenge - ructions in the ruling party

Bola Ahmed Tinubu visits Kaduna State, June 2025. Pic: @officialABAT
Bola Ahmed Tinubu visits Kaduna State, June 2025. Pic: @officialABAT

The country’s shrewdest political strategist has to contend with multiple schisms in the 36 states

On most measures, President Bola Tinubu has emphatically improved the position of the ruling All Progressives Congress in Nigeria – despite the unpopularity of many of its economic...

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Odinga’s big tent politics are close to collapse

William Ruto and Raila Odinga, June 2025. Pic: @RailaOdinga
William Ruto and Raila Odinga, June 2025. Pic: @RailaOdinga

An ODM top official is threatening to quit – as party grandees jostle for influence in Ruto’s second term, unity is on borrowed time

The price of propping up an unpopular president is rising for veteran opposition figure and kingmaker Raila Odinga. He still wants to chart a course that preserves his...


Tariff calamity deepens rift with Washington

Cyril Ramaphosa. Pic: @PresidencyZA
Cyril Ramaphosa. Pic: @PresidencyZA

Pretoria warns of long-term economic damage as the US weaponises trade for political pressure

There is little prospect of short term relief from the United States increasing tariffs to 30% on a wide range of South African imports, with the new rates...


Trump lessens the tariff pain, but they will still bite

Shipping container ship arriving in New York. Pic: Yuriy T / stock.adobe.com
Shipping container ship arriving in New York. Pic: Yuriy T / stock.adobe.com

The worst was averted – yet oil states and surplus exporters still face steep duties, as Lesotho breathes easier and AGOA’s future hangs in the balance

The final tariff sweep was softer than feared – but still sharp enough to sting. Algeria, Libya and South Africa will face 30% tariffs on goods exports, while...


As external support ebbs, states seek to plug the revenue gap

AFRICA: GOVERNMENTS MUST BOOST REVENUES, CUT OUTFLOWS. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
AFRICA: GOVERNMENTS MUST BOOST REVENUES, CUT OUTFLOWS. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Efforts to raise domestic funds are colliding with political constraints – and public trust remains elusive as global reforms falter

As indebted African governments confront declining aid flows and western reluctance to reform the international financial system, they are again eyeing ways to boost domestic revenues and tap...


Can Turkey save Mogadishu from its security fiascos?

Hussein Sheikh Ali. Pic: @ONSSomalia
Hussein Sheikh Ali. Pic: @ONSSomalia

President Hassan Sheikh calculates that a geological survey showing commercial quantities of oil will get Ankara to step up military aid

National Security Advisor Hussein Ma’alim Mahamud Sheikh Ali resigned on 23 July, after many missteps over the last year that have allowed Al Shabaab to recover three-quarters of...


A hopeful new state takes the stage

SOMALIA'S NEW STATE
SOMALIA'S NEW STATE

A new federal entity is forming which could spell the end to Somaliland and Puntland as political fiefdoms within Somalia

A landmark conference to establish a new Federal Member State of Somalia, Khatumo State, concluded on 31 July in Las Anod, the town that Somaliland’s President Muse Bihi...


Gen Z protestors vie with old politics

Police patrol the streets ahead of Saba Saba demonstrations in Nakuru
Police patrol the streets ahead of Saba Saba demonstrations in Nakuru. Credit: SOPA Images Limited/Alamy Live News

Former Chief Justice Maraga and veteran politician Musyoka are top contenders to lead the campaign against beleaguered President Ruto


President’s oil dream is in foreign hands

Workers are seen at the Kingfisher Oil Field in Kikuube, Uganda, on Jan. 24, 2023
Workers are seen at the Kingfisher Oil Field in Kikuube, Uganda, on Jan. 24, 2023. Credit: Hajarah Nalwadda/Xinhua/Alamy Live News

Museveni’s beloved pipeline and refinery project rides on uncertain finance from UAE and questions about China’s priorities


Ruto shifts from populism to authoritarianism

William Ruto, President of Kenya, at the U.S. Capitol
William Ruto, President of Kenya, at the U.S. Capitol. Credit: SOPA Images Limited/Alamy Live News

The president’s pledge to end elite capture and patronage has been dropped for the ethnic identity politics which dominated the old one-party state

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High hopes, little change

AFRICA: DEBT BURDEN MOUNTS, DEVELOPMENT FINANCE DECLINES
AFRICA: DEBT BURDEN MOUNTS, DEVELOPMENT FINANCE DECLINES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

After yet another UN summit, African governments see sparse progress on debt relief or global financial reform