NIGERIAUNITED STATES Deepening security crisis threatens Tinubu’s re-election plans 5th December 2025 Nuhu Ribadu meets Pete Hegseth. Pic: @SecWar Presidential allies blame political agendas and sabotage within the military for failure to protect citizens In early November, officers in the Department of State Services received intelligence about a planned abduction at Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School (GGCSS) in Maga, Kebbi State. They swiftly alerted senior Nigerian Army officers to reinforce security.
SOUTH AFRICA First the good news – then reality bites 5th December 2025 Pic: @PresidencyZA A ratings upgrade and stronger fiscal projections boost optimism, but job cuts and slow investment still haunt the ANC Political sentiment in South Africa is among the most febrile on the continent – if that is any comfort to President Cyril Ramaphosa. After the G20 Leaders’ Summit...
GUINEA BISSAU Coup d’état or coup de théâtre? 5th December 2025 Pic: @USEmbalo The military has overthrown the president but his allies remain in place – prompting some regional leaders to suspect skulduggery on all sides Three of the pillars of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s regime threw him out of office on 26 November, just a day before the results of a general election...
SENEGAL Faye and Sonko agree an uneasy truce 5th December 2025 Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Pic: @PR_Diomaye Debt pressures, IMF talks and partisan rivalries expose the fragility of a leadership once seen as unbreakable After a public rift that shook their political brotherhood and threatened crucial negotiations with the IMF, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko have stepped back...
KENYA Ruto holds the parties together 5th December 2025 William Ruto. Pic: @WilliamsRuto The president’s party and its allies won most of the seats on ‘Super Thursday’ – yet numbers show a coalition fraying at the edges President William Ruto and his semi-official allies in the late Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) enjoyed a bumper by-election day on 27 November, winning 16 of the...
GHANA Who is guarding the guards? 4th December 2025 Kissi Agyebeng. Pic: osp.gov.gh Activists are trying to push out the chair of the Electoral Commission and the Special Prosecutor as frustration grows with the government’s anti-corruption plan The better news about the economy hasn’t translated into quieter politics as President John Dramani Mahama’s government and the ruling National Democratic Congress face growing pressure on corruption,...
GHANA Gold boom and tighter budgets keep Mahama’s economy on the road 3rd December 2025 Cassiel Ato Forson. Pic: @Cassielforson The 2026 plan cuts the deficit again, using savings from lower debt-service to pay for higher social spending, winning market plaudits Ghana’s economy is on the mend. Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson set out the 2026 budget on 13 November claiming to have stabilised macroeconomic conditions. Treasury data showed...
SOMALIAUNITED STATESUNITED ARAB EMIRATES Funding woes dog anti-Islamic State war as Washington joins in 2nd December 2025 INSURGENCY IN SOMALIA: Africom joins the fight against Islamic State. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Puntland’s war on Da’ish drags on and piracy revives as President Said Deni prioritises electioneering above paying for troops Puntland’s bitter campaign against Islamic State (IS or Da’ish), backed by United States special forces, shows no sign of let-up despite 11 months of fighting and the capture...
TANZANIA Hassan faces foreign anger and braces for more unrest 1st December 2025 Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia The government risks losing aid funds and billions in investment in reaction to the election violence as it prepares for Independence Day protests As the scale of bloodshed during the 29 October general election hits home, President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government has triggered the country’s deepest crisis for decades, threatening the...
SOMALIA Hassan Sheikh takes poll position 27th November 2025 Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Pic: @HassanSMohamud The President hopes he can remain in power by winning a ‘one person one vote’ election next year, or get his term extended if delays persist President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has strengthened his position in the run-up to the presidential election next year by skilfully dividing the opposition. He is sticking with his call...
AFRICAUNITED NATIONSCLIMATE CHANGEG20 Johannesburg and Belém summits send defiant message to Trump 26th November 2025 Pic: @g20org Multilateralism survived and African leaders got some progress on debt, minerals and climate change at the G20 and the COP30 Winning a sort of victory in the teeth of United States opposition, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa rescued Africa’s first G20 on 22-23 November, pushing through a leaders’...
ANGOLA João Lourenço’s middle power moment 5th December 2025 João Lourenço It felt like a case of ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ when Angola’s President João Lourenço hosted the European Union-African Union summit in Luanda, as AU chair. No...
GAMBIA Auditor challenges president 5th December 2025 Modou Ceesay. Pic: nao.gm The Supreme Court in Banjul is expected to hear in one to two weeks’ time the plea of the sacked Auditor-General Modou Ceesay that he was illegally removed...
RWANDABRITAIN No more logo 5th December 2025 Pic: paulkagame The days of London’s biggest football club, Arsenal, proclaiming ‘Visit Rwanda’ on its players’ sleeves are over after the club confirmed that its eight-year sponsorship deal with Rwanda’s...
ERITREAETHIOPIA The fight for the Red Sea escalates 21st November 2025 THE FIGHT FOR THE RED SEA: Ethiopia's maritime ambitions clash with Eritrea's hard-fought sovereignty. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Commercial interests, naval ambitions and shifting alliances are raising the risk of war – as regional states pick sides Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly insisted that Ethiopia must secure direct access to the Red Sea. In his October address to parliament, he called it ‘inevitable’, citing...
CHADSUDAN Abu Dhabi pressures Mahamat Kaka 21st November 2025 Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno receives quadripartite delegation on Sudan crisis, Rome, October 2025. Pic: mahamatidrissdeby.td The RSF’s seizure of El Fasher exposed the fragility of the Ndjamena regime and its dependence on United Arab Emirates funding
UGANDA Museveni looks to an oil boost 21st November 2025 Uganda: Exports and growth rise. Debt and deficit worsen. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Growth and exports climb ahead of national elections, as the government pins its hopes on extractive revenues
ETHIOPIA Fano’s battlefield gains show Abiy’s shaky grip on the regions 14th November 2025 Captured Ethiopian Federal Forces. Pic: @martinplaut Federal government is pushed back hard as opposition forces in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray form a loose anti-regime front, redrawing the political map in the Horn
TANZANIA The power behind Samia’s throne 21st November 2025 Emmanuel Nchimbi, Samia Suluhu Hassan, Mwigulu Nchemba. Pic: FB Mwigulu Nchemba FB
SOUTH SUDAN Spinning out of control 21st November 2025 Salva Kiir Mayardit, November 2025. Pic: Office of the President – Republic of South Sudan The dismissal of Salva Kiir’s closest ally in a chaotic reshuffle has left him looking increasingly isolated
SOUTH AFRICA Ramokgopa takes a two trillion rand gamble on gas 19th November 2025 SOUTH AFRICA'S GAS FIELDS: Facing legal, political and environmental battles. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025 Legal setbacks, stalled offshore projects and a looming supply crisis threaten both industry and climate targets
EUROPEAN UNIONAFRICAN UNION Brussels pushes Global Gateway to rival US-China deal-making 13th November 2025 G20-Africa High-Level Dialogue on Debt Sustainability, Cost of Capital, and Financing Reforms hosted by the African Union, 10 November 2025, Addis Ababa. Pic: @APRMorg Eurocrats will argue for more transactional policies at the Luanda summit to secure critical minerals. But can the EU’s cash match its ambitions?
NIGERIA Tinubu pushes the multi-party system over a cliff 21st November 2025 People’s Democratic Party headquarters sealed off behind a barbed wire cordon Instead of attacking the government on insecurity and economic woes, the opposition wastes its energy on factional battles
CAMEROON Biya sworn in as resistance ebbs 18th November 2025 Paul Biya. Pic: @presidentpaulbiya With Tchiroma in exile and state repression in full flow the pendulum has swung back to the state as oppositionists ponder resignation or armed struggle
MOZAMBIQUEUNITED STATESFRANCE President Chapo returns empty-handed from Houston 12th November 2025 Daniel Chapo meets JD Vance. Pic: daniel_chapo_oficial ExxonMobil won’t recommit to its gas export scheme until Maputo agrees resumption terms with TotalEnergies