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Bawumia returns to revive defeated NPP

Mahamudu Bawumia. Pic: @MBawumia
Mahamudu Bawumia. Pic: @MBawumia

The former Vice-President will need new ideas and allies to take on President Mahama and his resurgent party

Mahamudu Bawumia has been re-elected as the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential candidate for the 2028 general elections, securing 56% of the vote in the party primaries. This victory underscores the former Vice-President’s standing in the party but his task ahead is more challenging – restoring the appeal of a party bruised by its worst-ever defeat in the 2024 general elections.


Ministers back Mnangagwa’s forever presidency

Zimbabwe Cabinet Meeting 10 February 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Zimbabwe Cabinet Meeting 10 February 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa

The President’s plan to end term limits is rallying opposition parties, unions, churches and war veterans against him

The long-planned and indefinite extension of Emmerson Mnangagwa’s presidency is taking shape in the form of a Constitutional Amendment Bill pushed by the uber-loyalist Minister of Justice, Parliamentary...


Biya’s grip falters as barons fight over a port contract

President Paul Biya Message to the Youth. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA
President Paul Biya Message to the Youth. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA

Infirmity is catching up with the President – 93 on Friday the 13th – with would-be successors battling over the spoils of office

The most convincing sign that President Paul Biya’s powers are waning is his inability to restrain ministers and close aides openly feuding over lucrative contracts. This would have...


Election crisis disrupts cash pipeline

Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia
Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia

Western states have cut funding in protest at state violence during the election but gold and domestic borrowing are plugging the gap for now

The crisis in foreign relations triggered by horror at the conduct of Tanzania’s 29 October general election crisis, when hundreds were believed killed by security forces, has compelled...


Bankruptcy beckons for the international system

António Guterres. Pic: UN Photo/Manuel Elías
António Guterres. Pic: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

Washington is withholding the funds it owes the UN to force reform but it is losing credibility and influence – even if no country wants to take over its role

António Guterres has sounded alarms before, but his 28 January warning that the United Nations faces ‘imminent financial collapse’ marked the organisation’s gravest moment since 1945. The Secretary-General’s...


Africans flock to the UN’s Haiti mission

Pierre Ericq Pierre, Permanent Representative of Haiti to the UN, addresses the Security Council meeting on Gang Suppression Force in Haiti. Pic: UN Photo/Rick Bajornas
Pierre Ericq Pierre, Permanent Representative of Haiti to the UN, addresses the Security Council meeting on Gang Suppression Force in Haiti. Pic: UN Photo/Rick Bajornas

Francophone African troops take on the gangs of the troubled Caribbean nation as they – and UN headquarters – try to profit from a top Trump priority

African nations are queuing up to contribute troops to the United Nations-organised Gang Suppression Force for Haiti, whose role is to build on the peacekeeping work of hundreds...


Rich economies turn off the aid tap

Pic: weforum.org
Pic: weforum.org

Activists are demanding urgent policy reform and UN agencies are on the brink of ending many life-saving relief operations in war zones

Against the backdrop of heightening geopolitical rivalries and a sluggish world economy, rich western economies are ending many of their long-established aid – or Official Development Assistance (ODA)...


Opposition solidarity goes regional

Protestors outside the Tanzania High Commission in Nairobi, December 2025. Pic: Kenya Human Rights Commission
Protestors outside the Tanzania High Commission in Nairobi, December 2025. Pic: Kenya Human Rights Commission

Pro-democracy activists across the region are rallying together, but they are being met with brutal and coordinated repression by state authorities

‘Don’t try this again,’ was the message to dozens of pro-democracy activists from across East Africa as they were deported from Tanzania last year after attempting to attend...


Golden tickets for sale in Ruto’s party

Pic: @WilliamsRuto
Pic: @WilliamsRuto

The President envisages a two-three million margin of victory in next year’s elections as ambitious contenders flock to his party

President William Ruto is bullish. He is aiming for re-election in August 2027 ‘by a margin of between two and three million so that we unite the country...


Tinubu gambles heavily on ‘fairer’ taxes

NIGERIA: TAX REVENUE INCREASES CRUCIAL FOR NATIONAL FINANCES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NIGERIA: TAX REVENUE INCREASES CRUCIAL FOR NATIONAL FINANCES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Growth, reserves and inflation are improving but the government’s new revenue drive is politically risky

Almost a year before they seek re-election, President Bola Tinubu and his All Progressives Congress (APC) administration continue to promote the much debated benefits of their ambitious reform...


Tigray’s cold war with Addis heats up

ETHIOPIA: Fears grow of a new Tigray war. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA: Fears grow of a new Tigray war. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Clashes in the disputed western areas risk igniting a wider conflict across the Horn, drawing in outside sponsors

A new war in Tigray – one that could again pull in Eritrea – is looking more likely after clashes broke out on 27 January between Tigrayan forces...


Attack on Niamey airbase sounds alarms on uranium security

Pic: RHJ / stock.adobe.com
Pic: RHJ / stock.adobe.com

A 1,000 tonne stockpile of yellowcake is the latest flashpoint in General Tiani’s pivot from Paris to Moscow

Concerns are growing for the security of a consignment of about 1,000 tonnes of uranium held at the Niger government’s military Air Base 101 next to the Diori...


‘Social justice’ off the G20 summit agenda

Pic: CURIOS / stock.adobe.com
Pic: CURIOS / stock.adobe.com

Trump’s exclusion of South Africa from the Miami summit shouldn’t deter other Africans from attending, says Washington

United States diplomats have told African governments and others planning to attend December’s G20 summit in Miami that if they want to continue to address issues such as...


Would-be Trump ally Mnangagwa risks blowback after failing to pay white farmers

Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Buoyed by the US President dismissing human rights policies and pausing anti-corruption laws, Harare had offered business incentives to Washington

Within hours of US President Donald J Trump’s re-election on 6 November 2024, his Zimbabwean counterpart Emmerson Mnangagwa ladled on the sycophancy in a social media posting: ‘Congratulations...

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British court snubbed

Harbinder Singh Sethi
Harbinder Singh Sethi

On 9 January, the Tanzanian High Court threw out a request from a British court to enforce a ruling that Pan Africa Power Solutions (PAP), owned by Harbinder...


Why the fight between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is lighting regional fires

RED SEA RIVALRIES: New alliances form as UAE-Saudi Arabia hostilities deepen. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
RED SEA RIVALRIES: New alliances form as UAE-Saudi Arabia hostilities deepen. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Far from mediating peace deals in Africa, the rival Gulf monarchies are exacerbating conflict

The outbreak of controlled hostilities between the monarchies of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates in December is deepening fissures across East Africa and the Horn. There are...


How Museveni won in Buganda

Yoweri Museveni. Pic: @KagutaMuseveni
Yoweri Museveni. Pic: @KagutaMuseveni

A fierce crackdown and a fractured opposition decisively shifted the contest long before the votes were counted

President Yoweri Museveni was expected to retain power following the 15 January polls. But few anticipated he would win with such a margin or that the ruling party...


Abiy’s proxy war tactics reach their limit

ETHIOPIA: Insurgents in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray step up campaign against Addis. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA: Insurgents in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray step up campaign against Addis. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Oppositionists make progress on a unity deal as insurgents tighten their grip on Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia

Ethiopia is trapped in a stalemate. With military victory impossible and political consensus unreachable, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government is falling back on divide and rule. The prime...


Sublime and ridiculous

Senegal Afcon team. Pic: @PR_Diomaye
Senegal Afcon team. Pic: @PR_Diomaye

Having claimed a global success in its hosting of Afcon, Morocco now turns from the spectacle back to the business of maintaining stability

Until its chaotic final on the evening of 18 January, Morocco had enjoyed an exceptional Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon), marked by state-of-the-art stadia served by new motorways...


Green shoots amid global chaos

AFRICA: Faster growth, but per capita incomes fall further behind. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
AFRICA: Faster growth, but per capita incomes fall further behind. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

There are reasons for optimism on growth and inflation but concerns on the cost of Africa’s debts persist

After a year of global uncertainty during which Africa’s economies were hit by the tariff war fallout, deep cuts in official development assistance (ODA), and the impact of...


Ramaphosa’s authority shaken as generals defy orders

General Rudzani Maphwanya. Pic: SA National Defence Force

Senior commanders ignored the President’s instruction to restrict Iran’s role in China’s naval exercise off Cape Town

The confrontation over Pretoria’s security ties with Tehran – specifically its participation in South African-hosted naval exercises – underlines the erosion of civilian control over the military and...


Hassan entrenches the securocrats and centralises control

Paul Makonda. Pic: baba_keagan
Paul Makonda. Pic: baba_keagan

The reshuffled ministerial team reinforces the President’s authoritarian stance after the election killings

The ministerial reshuffle announced on 8 January powerfully refutes claims by defenders of President Samia Suluhu Hassan that her authoritarian policies ahead of the 29 October election were...


Transport services still snagged after election chaos

Pic: web.mofat.co.tz
Pic: web.mofat.co.tz

Dar es Salaam’s transit reforms are stalling due to vested interests and use of opaque private companies

On 8 January, 49 buses were delivered to Dar es Salaam port – with another 50 due later this month – as part of an emergency response to...


Seventh time lucky for Museveni

Yoweri Museveni. Pic: @KagutaMuseveni
Yoweri Museveni. Pic: @KagutaMuseveni

The only unknown in Uganda’s election is the margin of the incumbent’s violent victory, as citizens look forward with alarm to the prospect of his son’s rule

Ahead of polling day on 15 January the streets of Kampala were thronged not with citizens, but with lines of armoured personnel carriers and uniformed police and soldiers...