Jump to navigation

South Africa

The ANC stitches togethers a pro-market coalition

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Cyril Ramaphosa will lead a Government of National Unity with the centre-right but excludes two populist parties with 25% of the vote

The Government of National Unity deal is a return to form for Cyril Ramaphosa who helped negotiate the first post-apartheid coalition government 30 years ago. The difference this time is that Ramaphosa’s broad church tilts heavily to the right and centre-right, excluding two populist parties, which are essentially splinters from the African National Congress and led by his rivals.


Battle for presidency splits the Kano emirate

Sanusi Lamido Sanusi
Sanusi Lamido Sanusi

Political alliances for the 2027 elections are fuelling the contest for the traditional leadership of Kano

Two emirs are laying claim to the throne of the Kano Emirate – a 220-year-old stool. On the surface it is just a battle of two cousins but behind the scenes it is a war betwe...


Patrice Talon tests strength of General Tiani’s junta

Pic: Présidence De La République Du Niger FB
Pic: Présidence De La République Du Niger FB

Vitriol flows both ways as hopes fade of an speedy end to the fight between Niamey and Cotonou

The arrest of five Nigérien oil technicians in Benin at the beginning of June has sparked accusations of ‘kidnapping’ and ‘hostage-taking’ from Gener...


Will the Buganda kingdom tilt the vote against Museveni?

Pic: kf.or.ug
Pic: kf.or.ug

Opposition activists are urging the country’s most powerful monarchy to take a tougher stance against the ruling party

As concerns grow about the health of the country’s most powerful monarch, Kabaka (King) Ronald Muwenda Mutebi, 69, a dispute has opened up about the Buganda kingdom taking a ...


Choices get starker after the ANC vote crash

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Shorn of a majority, Cyril Ramaphosa must choose between populists or pro-business centrists in a power-sharing deal

After its worst election in 30 years of power, the African National Congress (ANC) saw its vote share tumble to 40.2% and faces choices which will usher in a new era of coalition p...

READ FOR FREE

Government’s man subverts the resistance

Sengezo Tshabangu. Pic: @ParliamentZim
Sengezo Tshabangu. Pic: @ParliamentZim

Self-proclaimed leader Tshabangu takes over the opposition in parliament and backs plan to extend Mnangagwa’s presidential term

On 30 May, the Speaker of Parliament, Jacob Mudenda, appointed Sengezo Tshabangu as Leader of the Opposition, in what many are calling the end of opposition politics in Zimbabwe&rs...


Debt and drought weigh down economy

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Finance Minister Musokotwane cuts growth forecasts as worst dry spell in four decades and a weaker kwacha drive up the cost of living

Making significant progress towards restructuring its debts, three-and-a-half years after defaulting on its Eurobonds, Africa’s second-largest copper producer is struggling t...


Inching towards the end of the tunnel

Pic: @HHichilema

Pic: @HHichilema

After three-and-a-half years of talks and geopolitical clashes, officials in Lusaka foresee a comprehensive debt restructuring within months

At last an end is in sight for Zambia’s tortuous negotiations to restructure US$13.4 billion in foreign loans, after international bondholders met on 4 June to approve the ex...


Adesina urges the bank to go private

Akinwumi Adesina and William Ruto, June 2024. Pic: @akin_adesina
Akinwumi Adesina and William Ruto, June 2024. Pic: @akin_adesina

The AfDB should reinvent itself and triple its financing of business says the President in his last year in the job

Akinwumi Adesina’s farewell tour as president of the African Development Bank (AfDB) started with the bank’s annual meetings in Nairobi – the latest in a conveyor...


Talon flirts with a third term

Pic: @PresidenceBenin
Pic: @PresidenceBenin

Fighting with the Niger junta over oil exports, the President is mulling constitutional changes

Facing the challenges of succession or a high-risk bid for a third term, President Patrice Talon has been buffeted by the junta-versus-civilian-regime rivalries playing out in West...


Foregone electoral conclusion cements Kaka's grip

Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno. Pic: presidence.td
Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno. Pic: presidence.td

A new autocracy takes root after a dubious poll with only subtle changes to the rulership style of the last 30 years visible in the President's picks for the new cabinet

The electoral commission outdid itself in producing the results of the 6 May presidential election in record time. Having set a deadline of 21 May the Agence nationale de gestion d...


Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

Pic: @PresidenceTg
Pic: @PresidenceTg

In power since 2005, Faure Gnassingbé has changed the constitution to give him unlimited executive power

In a West Africa where Bassirou Diomaye Faye's presidential election victory in Senegal and the wave of military coups have shown that change is possible, President Faure Gnassingb...


Abiy keeps Addis on side but alienates the nation

Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli
Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli

Insurgencies rage in the three largest regions but the Prime Minister has reinforced his grip on the capital

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's political shapeshifting has cost him popular support in the Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions leaving only those in power in Addis Ababa and the regiona...


How Western Cape tested the opposition's coalition strategy

Pic: @Rise_MzansiWC
Pic: @Rise_MzansiWC

The centre-right Democratic Alliance has controlled the province since 2009 but is facing pushback from smaller parties in its political base

Early reports of a high turnout across the country on 29 May have boosted the ruling African National Congress's hopes that it might retain its national parliamentary majority and ...


Ruto revels in the western embrace

Pic: @USAmbKenya
Pic: @USAmbKenya

Washington offers military deals and pushes hefty investments as Kenya's President is feted in the US capital

Investment deals worth billions of dollars may have been secured, but geopolitics was the main agenda item during President William Ruto's four-day state visit to the United States...


BHP's 'final' bid for Anglo set for election day

Woodsmith, September 2023. Pic: Anglo American Plc
Woodsmith, September 2023. Pic: Anglo American Plc

With $50 billion on the table, the biggest mining deal in history faces a wall of corporate and political obstacles

Given the stakes in jobs and economic growth, it's fitting that the deadline for the offer by Australia's BHP for Anglo American should fall on 29 May, election day in South Africa...


On the back foot in Gauteng

Fikile Mbalula and Panyaza Lesufi. Pic: @GautengANC
Fikile Mbalula and Panyaza Lesufi. Pic: @GautengANC

Fearing a populist wave from the Malema and Zuma parties, the ANC is sending its veteran leaders to get out the vote for 29 May


Mogadishu gives the UN marching orders

Catriona Laing meets with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, May 2024. Pic: @TheVillaSomalia
Catriona Laing meets with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, May 2024. Pic: @TheVillaSomalia

A 10,000-strong African force is mooted as officials plan to wind down UN peacekeeping operations