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Patrice Motsepe isn’t running for the Presidency – but his campaign won’t listen

Patrice Motsepe. Pic: @MotsepeFoundtn
Patrice Motsepe. Pic: @MotsepeFoundtn

Top ANC officials have rebuked lobbyists who want the mining billionaire and sports funder to run for the party leadership

South African mining billionaire Patrice Motsepe is emerging as a reluctant challenger for the leadership of the African National Congress (ANC) at the party’s elective conference at the end of next year. He’s reluctant in the sense that his business and political associates are urging him to run; he has spent his life building a mining company and has never contested for office before.


New clash as Bio appoints election chief accused of bias

Edmond Sylvester Alpha. Pic: SLPP-FB
Edmond Sylvester Alpha. Pic: SLPP-FB

The President appears to be ignoring reforms agreed with the main opposition party

Political fault lines are widening ahead of national elections due by July 2028. The ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and the opposition All People’s Congress (APC) are...


Love me, love my minerals

Somaliland President Abdirahman Mahamed Abdullahi Irro meets Gideon Sa’ar, Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs, January 2026. Pic: @Abdirahmanirro
Somaliland President Abdirahman Mahamed Abdullahi Irro meets Gideon Sa’ar, Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs, January 2026. Pic: @Abdirahmanirro

Somaliland and Somalia are in a mining-based competition to influence Washington’s stance but the prevailing mood there may be indifference

Somaliland Minister of the Presidency Khadar Hussein Abdi repeated on 21 February an oft-made promise: Hargeisa will grant the United States access to its mineral resources, including lithium...


Sonko’s last stand as debt trap closes in

Ousmane Sonko. Pic: @SonkoOfficiel
Ousmane Sonko. Pic: @SonkoOfficiel

With the economy in technical default and a student killed in campus protests, the prime minister may be forced to accept an IMF-debt restructuring

Senegal’s government is sliding toward a financial reckoning. Now Africa's most indebted country – its debts are estimated at 132% of GDP after a post-election audit exposed US$7...


The Absentee Union

39th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union, Addis Ababa, February 2026. Pic: @_AfricanUnion
39th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union, Addis Ababa, February 2026. Pic: @_AfricanUnion

Two days of speeches in Addis Ababa skirted around harsh realities – the AU’s lack of independent finance and its failure to prevent conflict

As a measure of the dysfunction of the international system, the African Union has a special role, according to the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. ‘In a world...


The Trump-Ramaphosa axis heads south

Leo Brent Bozell III. Pic: @BrentBozell
Leo Brent Bozell III. Pic: @BrentBozell

MAGA Republicans want open confrontation with Pretoria, but many US companies are rebuilding ties

The arrival of United States President Donald Trump’s new ambassador, Leo Brent Bozell III, a veteran critic of the African National Congress, in South Africa sets up bilateral...


Britain plays the King

Bola Ahmed Tinubu meets King Charles III, November 2023. Pic: @officialABAT
Bola Ahmed Tinubu meets King Charles III, November 2023. Pic: @officialABAT

Abuja is spinning President Tinubu’s stay in the Palace – and warmer ties with the British government – as part of a reset of bilateral relations

On the back foot since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made France the centrepiece of his foreign policy, Britain is trying to restore its waning relationship with Nigeria. To...


Creditors’ quarrels hold back debt deal

Minister of Finance Ahmed Shide. Pic: MoFEthiopia
Minister of Finance Ahmed Shide. Pic: MoFEthiopia

State lenders claim that private creditors have secured unfair advantages in Addis Ababa’s drawn-out debt restructuring talks

Seven months after signing a crucial memorandum of understanding (MoU) with bilateral creditors, Ethiopia’s hopes that recent progress in negotiations with bondholders would hasten a comprehensive debt-restructuring agreement...


Economy gets pre-election boost

ETHIOPIA: EXPORTS AND GROWTH SURGE. BUT DEBTS STILL BITE. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA: EXPORTS AND GROWTH SURGE. BUT DEBTS STILL BITE. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Government claims double-digit expansion, yet hardship and scepticism remain widespread

With Ethiopia heading to the polls in June, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his ruling Prosperity Party radiate optimism on the economy. Not only has annual inflation returned...


Bawumia returns to revive defeated NPP

Mahamudu Bawumia. Pic: @MBawumia
Mahamudu Bawumia. Pic: @MBawumia

The former Vice-President will need new ideas and allies to take on President Mahama and his resurgent party

Mahamudu Bawumia has been re-elected as the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential candidate for the 2028 general elections, securing 56% of the vote in the party primaries. This...


Ministers back Mnangagwa’s forever presidency

Zimbabwe Cabinet Meeting 10 February 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Zimbabwe Cabinet Meeting 10 February 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa

The President’s plan to end term limits is rallying opposition parties, unions, churches and war veterans against him

The long-planned and indefinite extension of Emmerson Mnangagwa’s presidency is taking shape in the form of a Constitutional Amendment Bill pushed by the uber-loyalist Minister of Justice, Parliamentary...


Biya’s grip falters as barons fight over a port contract

President Paul Biya Message to the Youth. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA
President Paul Biya Message to the Youth. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA

Infirmity is catching up with the President – 93 on Friday the 13th – with would-be successors battling over the spoils of office

The most convincing sign that President Paul Biya’s powers are waning is his inability to restrain ministers and close aides openly feuding over lucrative contracts. This would have...


Election crisis disrupts cash pipeline

Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia
Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia

Western states have cut funding in protest at state violence during the election but gold and domestic borrowing are plugging the gap for now

The crisis in foreign relations triggered by horror at the conduct of Tanzania’s 29 October general election crisis, when hundreds were believed killed by security forces, has compelled...


Cannon fodder on the front line

Andrii Sybiha. Pic: @andrii_sybiha
Andrii Sybiha. Pic: @andrii_sybiha

A report by the All Eyes on Wagner (AEOW) investigative group, published on 11 February, lists 1,417 fighters from 35 African countries who joined the Russian army between...


Bankruptcy beckons for the international system

António Guterres. Pic: UN Photo/Manuel Elías
António Guterres. Pic: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

Washington is withholding the funds it owes the UN to force reform but it is losing credibility and influence – even if no country wants to take over its role

António Guterres has sounded alarms before, but his 28 January warning that the United Nations faces ‘imminent financial collapse’ marked the organisation’s gravest moment since 1945. The Secretary-General’s...


Africans flock to the UN’s Haiti mission

Pierre Ericq Pierre, Permanent Representative of Haiti to the UN, addresses the Security Council meeting on Gang Suppression Force in Haiti. Pic: UN Photo/Rick Bajornas
Pierre Ericq Pierre, Permanent Representative of Haiti to the UN, addresses the Security Council meeting on Gang Suppression Force in Haiti. Pic: UN Photo/Rick Bajornas

Francophone African troops take on the gangs of the troubled Caribbean nation as they – and UN headquarters – try to profit from a top Trump priority

African nations are queuing up to contribute troops to the United Nations-organised Gang Suppression Force for Haiti, whose role is to build on the peacekeeping work of hundreds...


Rich economies turn off the aid tap

Pic: weforum.org
Pic: weforum.org

Activists are demanding urgent policy reform and UN agencies are on the brink of ending many life-saving relief operations in war zones

Against the backdrop of heightening geopolitical rivalries and a sluggish world economy, rich western economies are ending many of their long-established aid – or Official Development Assistance (ODA)...


Opposition solidarity goes regional

Protestors outside the Tanzania High Commission in Nairobi, December 2025. Pic: Kenya Human Rights Commission
Protestors outside the Tanzania High Commission in Nairobi, December 2025. Pic: Kenya Human Rights Commission

Pro-democracy activists across the region are rallying together, but they are being met with brutal and coordinated repression by state authorities

‘Don’t try this again,’ was the message to dozens of pro-democracy activists from across East Africa as they were deported from Tanzania last year after attempting to attend...


Golden tickets for sale in Ruto’s party

Pic: @WilliamsRuto
Pic: @WilliamsRuto

The President envisages a two-three million margin of victory in next year’s elections as ambitious contenders flock to his party

President William Ruto is bullish. He is aiming for re-election in August 2027 ‘by a margin of between two and three million so that we unite the country...


Tinubu gambles heavily on ‘fairer’ taxes

NIGERIA: TAX REVENUE INCREASES CRUCIAL FOR NATIONAL FINANCES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NIGERIA: TAX REVENUE INCREASES CRUCIAL FOR NATIONAL FINANCES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Growth, reserves and inflation are improving but the government’s new revenue drive is politically risky

Almost a year before they seek re-election, President Bola Tinubu and his All Progressives Congress (APC) administration continue to promote the much debated benefits of their ambitious reform...


Tigray’s cold war with Addis heats up

ETHIOPIA: Fears grow of a new Tigray war. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA: Fears grow of a new Tigray war. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Clashes in the disputed western areas risk igniting a wider conflict across the Horn, drawing in outside sponsors

A new war in Tigray – one that could again pull in Eritrea – is looking more likely after clashes broke out on 27 January between Tigrayan forces...


Attack on Niamey airbase sounds alarms on uranium security

Pic: RHJ / stock.adobe.com
Pic: RHJ / stock.adobe.com

A 1,000 tonne stockpile of yellowcake is the latest flashpoint in General Tiani’s pivot from Paris to Moscow

Concerns are growing for the security of a consignment of about 1,000 tonnes of uranium held at the Niger government’s military Air Base 101 next to the Diori...


‘Social justice’ off the G20 summit agenda

Pic: CURIOS / stock.adobe.com
Pic: CURIOS / stock.adobe.com

Trump’s exclusion of South Africa from the Miami summit shouldn’t deter other Africans from attending, says Washington

United States diplomats have told African governments and others planning to attend December’s G20 summit in Miami that if they want to continue to address issues such as...


Would-be Trump ally Mnangagwa risks blowback after failing to pay white farmers

Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Buoyed by the US President dismissing human rights policies and pausing anti-corruption laws, Harare had offered business incentives to Washington

Within hours of US President Donald J Trump’s re-election on 6 November 2024, his Zimbabwean counterpart Emmerson Mnangagwa ladled on the sycophancy in a social media posting: ‘Congratulations...

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