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Guinea Bissau

Embaló seizes total power

Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Pic: @Presidencia_GB
Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Pic: @Presidencia_GB

With his close ally General Biaguê, the President has all but destroyed the country’s democracy within five years

Tensions are rising between President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and opposition groupings over the date he is due to leave office. Embaló insists it is 4 September – that is the day in 2020 when the country’s Supreme Court Supremo Tribunal de Justiça (STJ) confirmed him as president after months of wrangling. But opposition activists and politicians insist it should be 27 February as Embaló staged his own inauguration on 26 February 2020, in a Bissau hotel. Now the test is whether threats of brutal state repression will dissuade the opposition from staging protests this month.


President Bio keeps cocaine lord in the family

One of Europe’s most wanted criminals is the partner of one of the President’s daughters and has transferred his operations to Freetown. An Africa Confidential Special Report By Josef Skrdlik and Andrew Weir

Sierra Leone has been in a state of shock ever since one of Freetown’s most astonishing urban myths was confirmed as fact – that one of Europe’s most...

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Economic hits before and after votes

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

After the youth revolution in Dakar last year, an octogenarian may be running in the Ivorian elections

With voting nine months away, the campaigning and political tractations ahead of Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential elections are under way. The outcome will reverberate across the region. President Alassane...


Still the kingmaker

Raila Odinga. Pic: @RailaOdinga
Raila Odinga. Pic: @RailaOdinga

The coalition building ahead of 2027 may be shaped by Raila Odinga’s fate in the AU elections in Addis Ababa in mid-February

The coalitions that will contest Kenya’s general elections in August 2027 are rapidly taking shape. For President William Ruto, the first step involves integrating the Amani National Congress...


The Muhoozi succession recasts Kampala’s regional policy

Pic: @mkainerugaba
Pic: @mkainerugaba

President Museveni is planning his seventh presidential term but his son and heir apparent unsettles neighbouring states

As President Yoweri Museveni lays the groundwork for a seventh term next January, a pressing question remains, will he manage to control his mercurial son and heir apparent,...


After seizing Goma, Kigali’s rebels head south

Pic: @RwandaMoD
Pic: @RwandaMoD

Angola could play key role as Kagame-Tshisekedi conflict threatens region

When Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and its Congolese allies, the M23 militia, captured Goma, the capital of Kivu-Nord province, over the weekend of 25-26 January, they exposed the...


The year of voting dangerously

Vladimir Putin and Faustin-Archange Touadéra at the Kremlin, 16 January 2025. Pic: kremlin.ru
Vladimir Putin and Faustin-Archange Touadéra at the Kremlin, 16 January 2025. Pic: kremlin.ru

Accommodating one of Russia’s most profitable African operations, Touadéra balances competing foreign interests as he dismantles the local opposition

This year should be the year of elections in the Central African Republic. Local elections, already rescheduled four times, are due in July, with a general election following...


Playing the numbers game

2nd Bi-Annual Meeting of the National Consultative Committee on Statistics (NCCS), November 2024. Pic: National Bureau of Statistics

Political pressure is mounting on Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics ahead of the imminent release of its GDP rebasing data. The statistical exercise could more than double the...


Mineral riches

Pic: Erberto Zani / stock.adobe.com
Pic: Erberto Zani / stock.adobe.com

The European Union’s desperation to catch up with China’s mineral access is so great that it is willing to overlook evidence of mineral smuggling by M23 in eastern...


Growth is still chasing demographics

Africa economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Africa economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Inflation is falling but capital is scarce and a host of climate and trade disruptors hold back progress

Africa is set for faster growth and lower inflation this year – and the World Bank has upgraded growth projections for 2025 and 2026 – partly due to...

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America first but Africa where?

Pic: @WhiteHouse
Pic: @WhiteHouse

Deal-making diplomacy and geopolitical rivalry with China will dominate Washington’s policy in Africa

Many African leaders believe they can do business with new US President Donald Trump despite his previous lack of interest in the continent. A chorus of congratulatory messages...


Realpolitik and angry neighbours

Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita meets Algerian Minister of Justice Abderrachid Tebbi, emissary of President Abdelmajid Tebboune, Rabat, September 2022. Pic: @Marocdiplo_EN
Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita meets Algerian Minister of Justice Abderrachid Tebbi, emissary of President Abdelmajid Tebboune, Rabat, September 2022. Pic: @Marocdiplo_EN

The Maghreb’s sparring giants vie for influence as the Western Sahara stand-off dominates regional ties

With no sign of a thaw in the cold war between Algeria and Morocco, the Maghreb region will remain gripped by their stand-off and the Western Sahara dispute....


Kaka beset on all sides

Chad economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Chad economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Having struck out on his own, the President looks ill-equipped to meet the domestic political and foreign security challenges and faces major risks

Two momentous decisions at the end of 2024 govern prospects for the regime in the year to come: the expulsion of France’s military and President Mahamat Déby Itno...


Tshisekedi eyes a third term

Congo-K economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Congo-K economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Amid the security crisis in the Kivu provinces and geopolitical jockeying for Congo’s critical minerals, the President prioritises a constitutional change

Two key issues confront President Félix Tshisekedi in 2025 – to harness the spiralling global demand for the country’s cornucopia of critical minerals and to end the deepening...


Unity preserved but security lost

Somalia economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Somalia economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The damage caused by Ethiopia’s MoU has receded but political prospects are poor and morale in the national security forces is at rock bottom