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Debt peaks as Treasury pushes for growth and credibility

Enoch Godongwana delivers his budget speech, 25 February 2026. Pic: governmentza
Enoch Godongwana delivers his budget speech, 25 February 2026. Pic: governmentza

The proposed Budget steadies public finances and gives taxpayers some relief, but sluggish growth and the jobs crisis still cast a shadow

South Africa has reached the peak of its debt mountain this fiscal year, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana told Parliament in Cape Town in his 25 February Budget speech. Stabilising public finances – helped in part by a commodity price-driven rise in mining earnings and revenues – will allow him to increase infrastructure spending, offer tax breaks to job-creating small businesses, and argue that ratings agencies should upgrade South Africa’s sovereign rating. Within the limits of budgetary discipline, Godongwana tried to bolster upbeat economic sentiment but he faced harsh realities: business applauded his measures, unionists and activists were unimpressed.


Godongwana balances fiscal formula with spending boost

SOUTH AFRICA: DEBT STABILISING, BORROWING COSTS FALL. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
SOUTH AFRICA: DEBT STABILISING, BORROWING COSTS FALL. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The Budget, which will become law only after parliamentary revision, further Treasury scrutiny, public comment and presidential assent, seeks to boost health and education spending. The cessation of...


Ratings war – Africa fights back

George Elombi. Pic: @afreximbank
George Elombi. Pic: @afreximbank

Fitch’s junk downgrade and withdrawal from Afreximbank highlight a wider battle over how global ratings agencies judge African lenders

An African bank and one of the ‘big three’ ratings agencies have fired their latest salvoes in a broader struggle over how the global financial system treats the...


Zille – the power behind the DA’s throne

Helen Zille. Pic: helenzille26
Helen Zille. Pic: helenzille26

The veteran chief has cleared the way for her protégé to become the next party leader while she prepares to run for mayor of Johannesburg

Having been the most vocal critic of Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen, who in February announced his plans to vacate the leadership, Helen Zille looks set to entrench...


How Washington’s demands hit voters

Bola Tinubu meets with Governor of Kwara State Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq to be debriefed on killings in Kaiama. Pic: @officialABAT
Bola Tinubu meets with Governor of Kwara State Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq to be debriefed on killings in Kaiama. Pic: @officialABAT

The spreading security emergency and foreign political interference will cost President Bola Tinubu votes

A claim by a United States Congressional committee that Nigeria is the deadliest place in the world to practice Christianity has reignited tensions between Washington and Abuja as...


Washington courts the juntas

THE SAHEL: Juntas work with the US military as the insurgents spread. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
THE SAHEL: Juntas work with the US military as the insurgents spread. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

A year after breaking with Ecowas, the military regimes face more jihadist assaults but are getting some unlikely help from the US

For the juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the first anniversary of their breakaway from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) was marked by an...


Constitutional talks collapse

SOMALIA: Mogadishu struggles with worsening drought and fractious Somali federation. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
SOMALIA: Mogadishu struggles with worsening drought and fractious Somali federation. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Hassan Sheikh tightens his grip while a divided opposition flounders, fuelling fears of an increasingly authoritarian turn

After months of wrangling over constitutional review and the electoral process, February was expected to mark a breakthrough – a moment to settle proposed constitutional changes, agree on...


New clash as Bio appoints election chief accused of bias

Edmond Sylvester Alpha. Pic: SLPP-FB
Edmond Sylvester Alpha. Pic: SLPP-FB

The President appears to be ignoring reforms agreed with the main opposition party

Political fault lines are widening ahead of national elections due by July 2028. The ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and the opposition All People’s Congress (APC) are...


Love me, love my minerals

Somaliland President Abdirahman Mahamed Abdullahi Irro meets Gideon Sa’ar, Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs, January 2026. Pic: @Abdirahmanirro
Somaliland President Abdirahman Mahamed Abdullahi Irro meets Gideon Sa’ar, Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs, January 2026. Pic: @Abdirahmanirro

Somaliland and Somalia are in a mining-based competition to influence Washington’s stance but the prevailing mood there may be indifference

Somaliland Minister of the Presidency Khadar Hussein Abdi repeated on 21 February an oft-made promise: Hargeisa will grant the United States access to its mineral resources, including lithium...


Sonko’s last stand as debt trap closes in

Ousmane Sonko. Pic: @SonkoOfficiel
Ousmane Sonko. Pic: @SonkoOfficiel

With the economy in technical default and a student killed in campus protests, the prime minister may be forced to accept an IMF-debt restructuring

Senegal’s government is sliding toward a financial reckoning. Now Africa's most indebted country – its debts are estimated at 132% of GDP after a post-election audit exposed US$7...


Barren road to Arusha

Veronica Nduva. Pic: @mfa_tanzania
Veronica Nduva. Pic: @mfa_tanzania

The East African Community is not short on popularity; Somalia, South Sudan and Congo-Kinshasa have all joined the bloc in the past decade. But it is still hard...


The Absentee Union

39th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union, Addis Ababa, February 2026. Pic: @_AfricanUnion
39th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union, Addis Ababa, February 2026. Pic: @_AfricanUnion

Two days of speeches in Addis Ababa skirted around harsh realities – the AU’s lack of independent finance and its failure to prevent conflict

As a measure of the dysfunction of the international system, the African Union has a special role, according to the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. ‘In a world...


The Trump-Ramaphosa axis heads south

Leo Brent Bozell III. Pic: @BrentBozell
Leo Brent Bozell III. Pic: @BrentBozell

MAGA Republicans want open confrontation with Pretoria, but many US companies are rebuilding ties

The arrival of United States President Donald Trump’s new ambassador, Leo Brent Bozell III, a veteran critic of the African National Congress, in South Africa sets up bilateral...


Britain plays the King

Bola Ahmed Tinubu meets King Charles III, November 2023. Pic: @officialABAT
Bola Ahmed Tinubu meets King Charles III, November 2023. Pic: @officialABAT

Abuja is spinning President Tinubu’s stay in the Palace – and warmer ties with the British government – as part of a reset of bilateral relations

On the back foot since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made France the centrepiece of his foreign policy, Britain is trying to restore its waning relationship with Nigeria. To...


Creditors’ quarrels hold back debt deal

Minister of Finance Ahmed Shide. Pic: MoFEthiopia
Minister of Finance Ahmed Shide. Pic: MoFEthiopia

State lenders claim that private creditors have secured unfair advantages in Addis Ababa’s drawn-out debt restructuring talks

Seven months after signing a crucial memorandum of understanding (MoU) with bilateral creditors, Ethiopia’s hopes that recent progress in negotiations with bondholders would hasten a comprehensive debt-restructuring agreement...


Economy gets pre-election boost

ETHIOPIA: EXPORTS AND GROWTH SURGE. BUT DEBTS STILL BITE. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA: EXPORTS AND GROWTH SURGE. BUT DEBTS STILL BITE. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Government claims double-digit expansion, yet hardship and scepticism remain widespread

With Ethiopia heading to the polls in June, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his ruling Prosperity Party radiate optimism on the economy. Not only has annual inflation returned...


Bawumia returns to revive defeated NPP

Mahamudu Bawumia. Pic: @MBawumia
Mahamudu Bawumia. Pic: @MBawumia

The former Vice-President will need new ideas and allies to take on President Mahama and his resurgent party

Mahamudu Bawumia has been re-elected as the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential candidate for the 2028 general elections, securing 56% of the vote in the party primaries. This...


Ministers back Mnangagwa’s forever presidency

Zimbabwe Cabinet Meeting 10 February 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Zimbabwe Cabinet Meeting 10 February 2026. Pic: @edmnangagwa

The President’s plan to end term limits is rallying opposition parties, unions, churches and war veterans against him

The long-planned and indefinite extension of Emmerson Mnangagwa’s presidency is taking shape in the form of a Constitutional Amendment Bill pushed by the uber-loyalist Minister of Justice, Parliamentary...


Biya’s grip falters as barons fight over a port contract

President Paul Biya Message to the Youth. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA
President Paul Biya Message to the Youth. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA

Infirmity is catching up with the President – 93 on Friday the 13th – with would-be successors battling over the spoils of office

The most convincing sign that President Paul Biya’s powers are waning is his inability to restrain ministers and close aides openly feuding over lucrative contracts. This would have...


Election crisis disrupts cash pipeline

Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia
Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia

Western states have cut funding in protest at state violence during the election but gold and domestic borrowing are plugging the gap for now

The crisis in foreign relations triggered by horror at the conduct of Tanzania’s 29 October general election crisis, when hundreds were believed killed by security forces, has compelled...


Cannon fodder on the front line

Andrii Sybiha. Pic: @andrii_sybiha
Andrii Sybiha. Pic: @andrii_sybiha

A report by the All Eyes on Wagner (AEOW) investigative group, published on 11 February, lists 1,417 fighters from 35 African countries who joined the Russian army between...