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South Africa

The soldiers beyond Ramaphosa’s reach

Lieutenant-Colonel Frans Mathipa
Lieutenant-Colonel Frans Mathipa

Special Forces accused of murder expose a security system in disarray – and an Islamic State network running from Mogadishu to Midrand

The South African National Defence Force’s Special Forces command is facing its gravest public challenge since apartheid: not a battlefield reverse, but allegations that serving soldiers abducted an Islamic State-linked financier and then killed the policeman who pursued the trail. Twelve military personnel have been charged and deny wrongdoing. Yet the case’s political charge lies elsewhere: promotions have followed the investigation, state-funded defence is continuing and three accused whose bail was revoked remain outside custody.


Abiy’s enemies find common cause

ETHIOPIA'S NORTHERN FRONT REOPENS: Addis Ababa's forces test Tigray. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA'S NORTHERN FRONT REOPENS: Addis Ababa's forces test Tigray. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

A loose anti-federal alliance is becoming a political and military problem for Addis Ababa and in the wider region

On 1 August, heavy fighting broke out at Shererina, a Tigrayan military stronghold on the Ethiopia-Sudan border – arguably the most serious confrontation between the Tigray Security Forces...


Rebuilding the ethnic machine

ODM Central Management Committee and UDA Steering Committee meeting, State House Nairobi. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
ODM Central Management Committee and UDA Steering Committee meeting, State House Nairobi. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

A rebooted coalition might hold together but in Kenya’s political marketplace it is blocs, not ideas, that are the trading currency

The truism that Kenyan political parties are almost exclusively personal vehicles has been spelt out in technicolour by the fate of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) less than...


Mohammed VI faces a turnout test

King Mohammed VI. maroc.ma
King Mohammed VI. maroc.ma

The Palace expects its parties to retain control after the 23 September vote, but it has to make a managed contest look politically meaningful

Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit has been working hard for King Mohammed VI (M6) this summer, reassuring voters that the general election on 23 September will feature candidates of...


Saïed buckles in summer of discontent

Tunisians clash with security forces in the southern city of Ben Guerdane after the sinking of a migrant boat.
Tunisians clash with security forces in the southern city of Ben Guerdane after the sinking of a migrant boat.

A 55°C heatwave, power cuts and jailed dissidents have prompted a newly coordinated opposition to take on the regime

For the second month running, Tunisians have taken to the streets against President Kaïs Saïed, in what the Forum Tunisien pour les Droits Economiques et Sociaux (FTDES) says...


Opposition leader Lissu turns the tables on President Hassan

Tundu Lissu. Pic: @TunduALissu
Tundu Lissu. Pic: @TunduALissu

The chair of Chadema is defending himself in his treason trial and trying to drag the president and her security chiefs into the witness box

The confrontation between the state and its opponents has entered a more dangerous phase in the wake of last October's elections, when security forces killed hundreds of protestors...


Beijing finds partners on both sides of the Tripoli-Benghazi divide

Pic: BINGJHEN / stock.adobe.com
Pic: BINGJHEN / stock.adobe.com

Chinese companies are building ties with the rival regimes, using banking, shipping and industries to expand operations

Without waiting for the rival leaders in Tripoli and Benghazi to settle their political feuds, Chinese companies are building up a corporate bulwark in Libya. In the west,...


Chinese capital tests the limits of Washington’s diplomatic offer

Massad Boulos, Saddam Haftar, Marco Rubio, June 2026. Pic: @US_SrAdvisorAF
Massad Boulos, Saddam Haftar, Marco Rubio, June 2026. Pic: @US_SrAdvisorAF

As Beijing courts both Tripoli and Benghazi, Massad Boulos’s power-sharing gambit risks entrenching the warlords it hoped to tame

Even before Beijing’s latest commercial deals for the rival camps in Libya, United States senior envoy Massad Boulos was struggling to win credibility for his scheme to reunify...


Al Shabaab tests Hassan Sheikh’s resolve as troop drawdown nears

Forces from the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) seize a cache of chemical materials used to manufacture explosives. Lower Shabelle, June 2026. Pic: @HSNQ_NISA
Forces from the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) seize a cache of chemical materials used to manufacture explosives. Lower Shabelle, June 2026. Pic: @HSNQ_NISA

Intelligence raids killed a jihadi commander but the insurgents’ staying power complicates any peacekeeping exit

Fighters from Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) say they killed veteran Al Shabaab commander Abdullahi Ganey and three other militants in Middle Shabelle on 13 August...


Cocoa’s season of chaos

Pic: aiskynet / stock.adobe.com
Pic: aiskynet / stock.adobe.com

Preparing farmers for the compliance burden posed by the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has been complicated by the slump in wholesale cocoa prices. The price of a...


No longer copper-bottomed

Hakainde Hichilema. Pic: @HHichilema
Hakainde Hichilema. Pic: @HHichilema

Zambia’s democratic credentials have taken an hammering ahead of the planned presidential inauguration on 1 September at ‘a location to be announced.’ The results declaring incumbent Hakainde Hichilema...


Cheaper robots, revolutionary consequences

Solly Malatsi delivers the keynote address at Huawei South Africa Connect 2026. July 2026. Pic: @SollyMalatsi
Solly Malatsi delivers the keynote address at Huawei South Africa Connect 2026. July 2026. Pic: @SollyMalatsi

The IMF says AI could add 4% to Africa’s GDP within a decade but the technology threatens the white-collar jobs that many governments are trying to create

Over a period of four days, the South African government was hit with two scandals involving Artificial Intelligence (AI) ‘hallucinations’. The first, on 27 April, was auto-parodic: Communications...


Data centre boom hits power shortages

AFRICA'S AI NETWORK: data centres and sub-sea cables. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
AFRICA'S AI NETWORK: data centres and sub-sea cables. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The suspension of a flagship Kenyan project underscores the gap between hyperscale ambition and grid capacity across the continent

The dominant factor determining the development of Artificial Intelligence in Africa is not computing power but who controls the inputs: power, minerals and governance. The compute gap between...


Who governs Africa’s algorithms?

Bayraktar TB2. Pic: Mike Mareen / stock.adobe.com
Bayraktar TB2. Pic: Mike Mareen / stock.adobe.com

Gulf states, Beijing and Washington are buying influence with AI infrastructure and data centres – with minimal regulation

Artificial Intelligence has rapidly become part of the global geopolitical contestation over resources, ideologies and supply chains, and Africa is a testing ground in all three. Middle powers,...


Anti-corruption drive tests judiciary

Bernard Antwi-Boasiako aka Chairman Wontumi leaving the Accra High Court, in July 2026
Bernard Antwi-Boasiako aka Chairman Wontumi leaving the Accra High Court, in July 2026

A gold-mining conviction shows how the courts have become a weapon in the fight between Ghana’s two big parties


Whitehall’s strategy collides with reality

Miatta Fahnbulleh appointed Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, July 2026. Pic: @10DowningStreet
Miatta Fahnbulleh appointed Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, July 2026. Pic: @10DowningStreet

Trade ambitions survive the aid retrenchment, but London’s commercial footprint is shrinking


Juntas edge towards a security pact

FIXING SAHELIAN SCHISMS: Ghana proposes an a la carte security pact. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
FIXING SAHELIAN SCHISMS: Ghana proposes an a la carte security pact. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Ghana’s special envoy floats a plan for Ecowas states and military regimes to work together on counter-insurgency


Africa has to fire up its energy transition

AFRICA'S ENERGY TRANSITION: RENEWABLES EDGING FORWARD.
AFRICA'S ENERGY TRANSITION: RENEWABLES EDGING FORWARD. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Investment trends suggest that, despite the hype, there is little sign of a transformation under which governments could meet energy needs and climate goals


Mangudya’s airborne makeover restores London flights

Air Zimbabwe departs Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport bound for London Gatwick, 22 July 2026. @Airports_Zim
Air Zimbabwe departs Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport bound for London Gatwick, 22 July 2026. @Airports_Zim

The Mutapa Fund wants a win after its shuffle of state assets. A revived airline route to Britain flight provides one – but at a price, and with a partner carrying its own baggage