ZAMBIA Moving goalposts 24th July 2026 Pic: @HHichilema New electoral rules and an uptick in the economy should have given Hichilema a clear run at re-election, but Lungu’s ghost lingers in a new challenger As Zambia goes to the polls on 13 August, President Hakainde Hichilema, first elected in 2021, is seeking re-election in a contest shaped as much by disputes over electoral rules as by political competition. Late last year, the government introduced constitutional changes that were fiercely contested by civil society groups and MPs from the former ruling Patriotic Front (PF).
ZIMBABWE Opposition mounts to term extension 24th July 2026 Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa President Mnangagwa’s allies and securocrats warn they will arrest dissident officers ahead of the 31 July protests against the constitutional overhaul On paper, President Emmerson Mnangagwa has secured his extra two years in office, having signed Constitutional Amendment Bill Number 3 into law on 7 July. As well as...
UGANDA A rift in the First Family 24th July 2026 Odrek Rwabwogo. Pic: @OdrekRwabwogo Gen Muhoozi’s latest aggressive crackdown on his political opponents has prompted criticism from his brother-in-law General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the son of Uganda’s 82-year-old President Yoweri Museveni and head of the Ugandan military, has spent the past two months asserting his grip on the...
ETHIOPIA Abiy’s constitutional gamble 23rd July 2026 Abiy Ahmed Ali at the opening ceremony the National Dialogue, 15 July 2026. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wants to use the National Dialogue to begin unpicking Ethiopia’s ethnic federation The National Dialogue plenary session that opened on 15 July in Addis Ababa was promoted by state media with unusual intensity. This reflected less enthusiasm for the consultative...
NAMIBIA Nandi-Ndaitwah leans on Beijing 24th July 2026 NAMIBIA: GROWTH STAGNANT AS DIAMOND SECTOR STRUGGLES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026 New agreements with China come as weak growth, rising debt and stalled job targets sharpen pressure on the administration Back in Windhoek from her 5-11 July trip to China, President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah hailed a package of eight cooperation and investment deals with Beijing including an extremely detailed...
ZAMBIA President Hichilema faces claims of capture by top copper miner 22nd July 2026 Pic: @HHichilema Global Witness report alleges First Quantum funded Hichilema's rise en route to becoming the country’s biggest copper producer Just in time for national elections on 13 August, a noisy debate has broken out in Lusaka about the extent to which President Hakainde Hichilema, who is seeking...
KENYA Ruto's Mount Kenya problem deepens as his deputy's authority falters 21st July 2026 Ol Kalou elects Sammy Waweru Ngotho. Pic: @rigathi The president’s costly election strategy is unnerving both the ruling party and its opponents After concluding that he can win a second term without the votes of central Kenyan votes that his predecessors relied on, President William Samoei Ruto is banking on...
SOMALIA Islamic State exploits Puntland leader’s political errors 17th July 2026 NORTHERN SOMALIA: ISIS/DA'ISH REVIVAL THREATENS DENI IN PUNTLAND. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026 The jihadists ramped up their war from the Al Miskaad mountains as Puntland President Deni refocused his forces on Al Shabaab Jihadist fighters loyal to the Islamic State (IS or Da’ish) have the wind in their sails thanks to political errors and misgovernance in semi-autonomous Puntland and Mogadishu –...
CAMEROON Biya’s Geneva stay sharpens succession risk 15th July 2026 20 May National Day celebrations. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA The president’s absence has held-up decisions in Yaoundé, triggering concerns over the un-named vice-president and a political rupture President Paul Biya has been stuck in Geneva, Switzerland, for a month – alternating between a private clinic and his favoured suite at the InterContinental Hotel. This follows...
SOUTH AFRICA Leadership rift tests DA's claim to competent governance 14th July 2026 Geordin Hill-Lewis. Pic: @Our_DA As Hill-Lewis consolidates control of the biggest opposition party, questions over trust and influence complicate his bid to widen its appeal Ahead of a critical test in the local elections on 26 November, the opposition Democratic Alliance has handed its opponents an unexpected gift. Instead of campaigning against the...
ETHIOPIAWHO'S WHO Getachew Reda – Abiy’s unlikely ally 24th July 2026 Getachew Reda When the Tigray regional authorities were locked in a devastating war with Ethiopia’s federal government between 2020 and 2022, Getachew Reda was a senior Tigray People’s Liberation Front...
AFRICAHEALTH Ebola exposes preparedness gaps 24th July 2026 Pic: AMO / stock.adobe.com African countries are, on average, 30% better prepared for a health emergency than they were at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021, according to the Africa...
SÃO TOMÉ & PRÍNCIPE Vila Nova win – Trovoada setback 24th July 2026 Carlos Vila Nova. Pic: CsernakTamas CC-BY-SA-4.0 On 19 July the incumbent President Carlos Vila Nova was re-elected with 56% of the vote. His main challenger, Nito d’Abreu, secured 41.4%. Only 41.3% of the 142,191...
NIGERIAUNITED STATES School kidnappings fuel political crisis ahead of 2027 vote 10th July 2026 As Washington shifts approach, attacks are intensifying, raising questions about Abuja’s counterterrorism partnership with Trump’s administration
FOOTBALLAFRICA Pelé’s prediction still a distant prospect 9th July 2026 Cabo Verde's Vozinha. Pic: @vozinhapr The ten African World Cup teams have largely outperformed expectations, but the continent’s teams still struggle to defeat the world’s best
TANZANIAUNITED STATES Mines and security – Samia’s two-track strategy with Washington 3rd July 2026 Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic:@SuluhuSamia President Samia Suluhu Hassan is spending millions on US lobbyists to protect a critical minerals pipeline from congressional sanctions
ETHIOPIAUNITED STATES The Horn’s shifting alliances unsettle Addis 1st July 2026 Abdel Fattah el Sisi and Donald Trump, Évian, France, 17 June 2026. Pic: @SISEGY As Saudi, Emirati, Egyptian and Eritrean interests collide around Ethiopia, US pressure may just sharpen Mekelle’s choices rather than tamp down the conflict
SOUTH AFRICA Protests reveal a deeper crisis 10th July 2026 Malawian migrant returns from South Africa. Pic: @MalawiGovt Marches against immigration show how trust in the ANC’s ability to govern has eroded, five years after the deadly 2021 riots
KENYA All against Ruto, but united for whom? 10th July 2026 Pic: @LindaMwananchi_ The opposition coalition is getting broader but struggling to control egos and unite behind a single candidate
TANZANIAUNITED STATES Trump’s new man in Dodoma may boost investor play 3rd July 2026 William Trachman. Pic: mslegal.org Critical minerals, rare earths and the Beijing-Moscow axis could reshape Washington’s view of Samia’s government
SUDANSAUDI ARABIAUNITED ARAB EMIRATES Gulf states' proxy war leaves Sudan's peace process in ruins 26th June 2026 Abdel Fattah al-Burhan meets with Saudi Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs. Pic: @KSAmofaEN Rivalries between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have rendered the international Quartet powerless as the RSF prepares a devastating assault on El Obeid
SOMALIAUNITED STATES US withdrawal threatens peacekeepers 10th July 2026 Pic: @aussom_ Washington’s refusal to back UN funding for African Union forces from 2027 raises questions over how to contain Al Shabaab and Islamic State
LIBYASUDANUNITED STATES The Haftar-Hemeti warlord connection catches up with Washington 8th July 2026 Marco Rubio meets Saddam Haftar, Washington DC, June 2026. Pic: @SecRubio As US envoy Boulos talks up a Libyan unity plan, investigators have traced arms supplies linking Haftar’s fiefdom with the RSF militia
ERITREAETHIOPIAUNITED STATES Washington courts Issayas as Tigray edges to the brink 2nd July 2026 Eritrea's Foreign Minister Osman Saleh and US Senior Advisor for Arab and African Affairs Massad Boulos. September 2025 Pic: @Eritrea_UN US diplomacy is colliding with Eritrea's hedging strategy, Tigray's hardening politics and a widening regional contest stretching from the Nile to the Red Sea
