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School kidnappings fuel political crisis ahead of 2027 vote

As Washington shifts approach, attacks are intensifying, raising questions about Abuja’s counterterrorism partnership with Trump’s administration

When Grammy-nominated Nigerian musician Davido appeared at a FIFA World Cup countdown concert in Los Angeles last month wearing a jacket embroidered with the names of 39 abducted schoolchildren, the image travelled fast. For President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government, it was a bitter reminder that Nigeria’s security crisis had crossed from the policy arena into popular culture. That happened a decade ago when an international social media campaign to rescue schoolgirls abducted by insurgents quashed President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s chances of re-election.


Protests reveal a deeper crisis

Malawian migrant returns from South Africa. Pic: @MalawiGovt
Malawian migrant returns from South Africa. Pic: @MalawiGovt

Marches against immigration show how trust in the ANC’s ability to govern has eroded, five years after the deadly 2021 riots

When thousands of South Africans marched peacefully on 30 June demanding tighter immigration controls, the biggest story was not the demonstrations – it was the absence of violence....


US withdrawal threatens peacekeepers

Pic: @aussom_
Pic: @aussom_

Washington’s refusal to back UN funding for African Union forces from 2027 raises questions over how to contain Al Shabaab and Islamic State

On 1 July the United States announced that it will block UN financial support for the African Union’s peacekeeping force in Somalia in 2027, deepening a funding crisis...


Pelé’s prediction still a distant prospect

Cabo Verde's Vozinha. Pic: @vozinhapr
Cabo Verde's Vozinha. Pic: @vozinhapr

The ten African World Cup teams have largely outperformed expectations, but the continent’s teams still struggle to defeat the world’s best

Thirty-two years ago, an exciting Nigeria team narrowly fell short of the quarter finals at World Cup ‘USA 94’, following Italy’s 89th minute equalizer and subsequent extra-time winner...


All against Ruto, but united for whom?

Pic: @LindaMwananchi_
Pic: @LindaMwananchi_

The opposition coalition is getting broader but struggling to control egos and unite behind a single candidate

President William Ruto is the heavy favourite to secure a second term in the August 2027 general elections mainly because of his relentless politicking and the lack of...


The Haftar-Hemeti warlord connection catches up with Washington

Marco Rubio meets Saddam Haftar, Washington DC, June 2026. Pic: @SecRubio
Marco Rubio meets Saddam Haftar, Washington DC, June 2026. Pic: @SecRubio

As US envoy Boulos talks up a Libyan unity plan, investigators have traced arms supplies linking Haftar’s fiefdom with the RSF militia

A compelling new investigation into how fighters loyal to eastern-based warlord Khalifa Haftar have trained fighters from Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is complicating a new US push...


Washington courts Issayas as Tigray edges to the brink

Eritrea's Foreign Minister Osman Saleh and US Senior Advisor for Arab and African Affairs Massad Boulos. September 2025 Pic: @Eritrea_UN
Eritrea's Foreign Minister Osman Saleh and US Senior Advisor for Arab and African Affairs Massad Boulos. September 2025 Pic: @Eritrea_UN

US diplomacy is colliding with Eritrea's hedging strategy, Tigray's hardening politics and a widening regional contest stretching from the Nile to the Red Sea

The sands are shifting in the Horn, prompting a spate of diplomatic openings from the United States and the African Union. For now, it’s unlikely that either party...


The Horn’s shifting alliances unsettle Addis

Abdel Fattah el Sisi and Donald Trump, Évian, France, 17 June 2026. Pic: @SISEGY
Abdel Fattah el Sisi and Donald Trump, Évian, France, 17 June 2026. Pic: @SISEGY

As Saudi, Emirati, Egyptian and Eritrean interests collide around Ethiopia, US pressure may just sharpen Mekelle’s choices rather than tamp down the conflict

As the implications of the emerging alignment in the Horn become clearer, United States President Donald J Trump’s administration calculates that behind the threat of renewed conflict in...


Gulf states' proxy war leaves Sudan's peace process in ruins

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan meets with Saudi Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs. Pic: @KSAmofaEN
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan meets with Saudi Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs. Pic: @KSAmofaEN

Rivalries between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have rendered the international Quartet powerless as the RSF prepares a devastating assault on El Obeid

After a brief pause during the United States-Iran war, regional competition between Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed...


The right not to return

Pic: home-affairs.ec.europa.eu
Pic: home-affairs.ec.europa.eu

Police forces across the European Union now have sweeping new powers to detain and deport migrants under a new ‘returns’ regulation in effect since 1 July. But that...


Guns for fertiliser

Pic: @OCPGroup
Pic: @OCPGroup

The suspension of duties on phosphate fertiliser imported from Morocco by US President Donald Trump’s administration is the latest in a series of lucrative quid pro quos between...


The Red Sea reckoning to come

A NEW POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY: The Gulf now stretches from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
A NEW POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY: The Gulf now stretches from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The US-Iran MoU has not brought calm to the Horn – it has opened a new competition in the waters that matter most to the Gulf states and their African counterparts

The memorandum of understanding digitally signed by United States President Donald Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on 18 June was welcomed in most world capitals as the...


The pips are already squeaking

William Ruto assents to the Finance Bill, 23 June 2026. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto assents to the Finance Bill, 23 June 2026. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

Treasuries insist that higher domestic tax revenues will fund rising budgets, but can already hard-pressed workers be squeezed any further?

Faced with a combination of fuel and fertiliser price rises resulting from the Iran war, high debt servicing costs and declining aid flows hitting consumer spending and government...


Growth promised, but debt is closing in

EAST AFRICA: BUDGETS EXPAND DESPITE LARGE DEFICITS. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
EAST AFRICA: BUDGETS EXPAND DESPITE LARGE DEFICITS. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Regional economies are pushing investment but face the same pressures: constrained budgets, tougher lenders and impatient electorates

East Africa’s budget season has again been framed as a fightback against the global slowdown. Finance ministers in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi point to strong regional...


Mnangagwa buys another two years

Pic: @edmnangagwa
Pic: @edmnangagwa

The President has coerced and co-opted enough MPs to back the extension of his rule until 2030 – but he could still trip up


Border talks gain unexpected momentum

Abdourahamane Tiani and Romuald Wadagni, 2 June 2026. Pic:@NigerAr
Abdourahamane Tiani and Romuald Wadagni, 2 June 2026. Pic:@NigerAr

Technical teams have mapped out steps towards reopening crossings and reviving trade after months of political rupture