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Ethiopia

Abiy turns the screw on the ethno-nationalists

Abiy Ahmed. Pic: PMAbiyAhmedAli
Abiy Ahmed. Pic: PMAbiyAhmedAli

The TPLF’s retreat from Mekelle gives the premier room to squeeze his regional opponents, but their shaky alliance still threatens federal supply lines

For the second time this decade, the leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) appear to have made a strategic error that has forced them to flee the Tigray region’s capital, Mekelle. This time, the outcome could be more than another period of federal control – rather a decisive blow to Ethiopia’s ethno-nationalist project.


TPLF loses Mekelle, mountain war begins

ETHIOPIA'S FEDERAL FIGHT BACK: The ENDF and Tigray dissidents seize Mekelle. © africa-confidential.com 2026
ETHIOPIA'S FEDERAL FIGHT BACK: The ENDF and Tigray dissidents seize Mekelle. © africa-confidential.com 2026

Federal forces have seized Tigray’s capital and southern corridor, but TPLF and Eritrean soldiers may turn this advance into a costly highland campaign

The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) has pushed deep into Tigray, capturing the regional capital, Mekelle, on 4 October after a rapid turnaround on several fronts. The advance...


Commission exposes battle over the law

Mbuyiseli Madlanga. Pic: madlangacommission.co.za
Mbuyiseli Madlanga. Pic: madlangacommission.co.za

Withdrawn prosecutions and disciplinary cases are reshaping policing and anti-corruption, testing Ramaphosa’s commitment to restore credibility

Retired Constitutional Court judge Mbuyiseli Madlanga’s inquiry inquiry into criminal influence over the police service is developing into a broader test of confidence in all the institutions responsible...


Never mind the politics, feel the revenues

TANZANIA: STRONG GROWTH, LOW INFLATION, INCREASING DEBT. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
TANZANIA: STRONG GROWTH, LOW INFLATION, INCREASING DEBT. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Dodoma exudes confidence on economic growth and investment, despite European critics of rights abuses

The fallout from the stolen election of President Samia Suluhu Hassan and the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) last October, and the mass killing of protestors, has neither...


Wicknell Chivayo’s presidential network loses its broker

Wicknell Chivayo. Pic: X
Wicknell Chivayo. Pic: X

Far flung tributes underline the reach of a businessman whose access to African leaders was clearer than the commercial arrangements underpinning it

The death of flamboyant businessman Wicknell Chivayo in a helicopter crash on 30 September has jolted the pan-African networks that he built around money, access and political favour....


Salva Kiir changes voting rules, aiming to keep the power

Pic: UN Photo/Isaac Billy
Pic: UN Photo/Isaac Billy

His electoral amendments remove constitutional and census hurdles but leave the credibility of the vote in dispute

Centralising all power under his office ahead of elections scheduled for 22 December, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir Mayardit has dissolved the transitional government and legislatures while retaining...


Mutharika flounders after his dramatic comeback

Peter Mutharika, January 2026. Pic: @APMutharika
Peter Mutharika, January 2026. Pic: @APMutharika

Struggling with corruption, a weak economy, and poor health, the president is surrounded by would be successors

Public resentment against economic stagnation and corruption powered Peter Mutharika to an unlikely second term aged 85 last September. But his administration has made little progress on either...


Brussels pesticide overhaul puts African farm exports at risk

Mutahi Kagwe. Pic: @CS_MoALD
Mutahi Kagwe. Pic: @CS_MoALD

Coffee, citrus and flower exporters are under pressure to change production methods but researchers warn of higher costs and disrupted trade

Brussels’s promise of closer economic ties with Africa is colliding with its drive to protect European farmers. Proposed changes to pesticide-residue limits could force African farmers to change...


Abiy’s military advantage meets a broader insurgent challenge

ETHIOPIA'S FEDERATION UNDER THREAT: Conflict resumes between Addis Ababa and Tigray region. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA'S FEDERATION UNDER THREAT: Conflict resumes between Addis Ababa and Tigray region. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Federal forces retain superior air power, but the disparate coalition opposing them is stretching them across several fronts

The clashes which broke out on 23 September in Tigray are the fiercest since the TPLF signed the Pretoria accord with the Federal forces in November 2022. They...


Team Ruto plots its succession

State House’s 20-strong advisory corps has become a parallel centre of power and is quietly assembling its own slate for next August’s polls

President William Samoei Ruto has assembled an advisory team of technocrats and loyalist bruisers, many of whom plan to use their State House roles in electoral politics next...


Ruto’s populist turn on foreign traders risks rattling investors

William Ruto, United Nations General Assembly, New York, September 2026. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto, United Nations General Assembly, New York, September 2026. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

The crackdown on foreign small businesses, now folded into a sweeping localisation bill, tests the President’s  promise that Kenya remains open for capital

A fluent public speaker with a generous travel budget, President William Samoei Ruto, has been raising his profile again at the UN General Assembly this week, lobbying for...


HH’s poll overkill threatens legitimacy

ZAMBIA'S NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS, 2026. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ZAMBIA'S NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS, 2026. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The ruling party may have jeopardised the country’s democratic reputation but investors seem unperturbed

A consensus is emerging that President Hakainde Hichilema and his ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) panicked during the 13 August election count, fearing they would fall...


Electricity drive confronts financing gap

AFRICA'S ELECTRIFICATION DRIVE: THE RACE FOR UNIVERSAL ACCESS BY 2030. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
AFRICA'S ELECTRIFICATION DRIVE: THE RACE FOR UNIVERSAL ACCESS BY 2030. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Mission 300’s reported progress is good news – but it favours bankable governments rather than those whose electricity deprivation is deepest

Africa’s largest electrification initiative has made an early advance, with the World Bank and African Development Bank reporting more than 50 million electricity connections in 40 countries. The...


The Tinubu dividend remains elusive

NIGERIA: GROWTH, TRADE BALANCE AND RESERVES STRENGTHEN. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NIGERIA: GROWTH, TRADE BALANCE AND RESERVES STRENGTHEN. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Ending subsidies and floating the naira boosted public finances and market sentiment but the government’s repairs aren’t passing the household test