SOUTH AFRICA Debt peaks as Treasury pushes for growth and credibility 6th March 2026 Enoch Godongwana delivers his budget speech, 25 February 2026. Pic: governmentza The proposed Budget steadies public finances and gives taxpayers some relief, but sluggish growth and the jobs crisis still cast a shadow South Africa has reached the peak of its debt mountain this fiscal year, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana told Parliament in Cape Town in his 25 February Budget speech. Stabilising public finances – helped in part by a commodity price-driven rise in mining earnings and revenues – will allow him to increase infrastructure spending, offer tax breaks to job-creating small businesses, and argue that ratings agencies should upgrade South Africa’s sovereign rating. Within the limits of budgetary discipline, Godongwana tried to bolster upbeat economic sentiment but he faced harsh realities: business applauded his measures, unionists and activists were unimpressed.
SOUTH AFRICA Godongwana balances fiscal formula with spending boost 6th March 2026 SOUTH AFRICA: DEBT STABILISING, BORROWING COSTS FALL. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026 The Budget, which will become law only after parliamentary revision, further Treasury scrutiny, public comment and presidential assent, seeks to boost health and education spending. The cessation of...
AFRICAFINANCE Ratings war – Africa fights back 6th March 2026 George Elombi. Pic: @afreximbank Fitch’s junk downgrade and withdrawal from Afreximbank highlight a wider battle over how global ratings agencies judge African lenders An African bank and one of the ‘big three’ ratings agencies have fired their latest salvoes in a broader struggle over how the global financial system treats the...
The effects of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran are multiplying as the conflict spreads across the region hitting both economic and political targets. The first blows on Africa were economic. The resulting spike in oil prices will spark inflation across the continent just as many countries were stabilising public finances and bringing down borrowing costs. If Iran delivers on its threat to close the Hormuz Straits – through which much of East and Northern Africa’s foo... The effects of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran are multiplying as the conflict spreads across the region hitting both economic and political targets. The first blows on Africa were economic. The resulting spike in oil prices will spark inflation across the continent just as many countries were stabilising public finances and bringing down borrowing costs. If Iran delivers on its threat to close the Hormuz Straits – through which much of East and Northern Africa’s food imports pass as well as a fifth of global oil exports – inflation will rise further still, and there could be prolonged commodity shortages. Fertiliser costs, already rising, could spike further, increasing food prices and input costs for farmers. That will hit east and southern African states. And tougher conditions will act as a drag on the continent’s biggest economies – Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa – due to a combination of higher fuel and fertiliser prices and capital flight if global financial jitters intensify. The war will have wider geopolitical effects. Russia will step up its search for naval bases on the Red Sea. The reach of Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council states could weaken in Africa if it forces them to focus locally. States such as Turkey will boost their regional role. But the competition between Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates for influence in Africa may even deepen, despite their making common cause against Iran for now. Read more
SOUTH AFRICA Zille – the power behind the DA’s throne 6th March 2026 The veteran chief has cleared the way for her protégé to become the next party leader while she prepares to run for mayor of Johannesburg Having been the most vocal critic of Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen, who in February announced his plans to vacate the leadership, Helen Zille looks set to entrench...
NIGER Niger backs down over Orano uranium stock 6th March 2026 General Abdourahamane Tiani, Niger’s military ruler, is reluctantly climbing down from the junta’s bitter dispute with the French nuclear group Orano, even as he launched a fresh barrage...
SIERRA LEONE New clash as Bio appoints election chief accused of bias 3rd March 2026 The President appears to be ignoring reforms agreed with the main opposition party Political fault lines are widening ahead of national elections due by July 2028. The ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and the opposition All People’s Congress (APC) are...
EUROPEAN UNIONMIGRATION Crossings down, pressure up – fearing the far-right, Brussels toughens laws 24th February 2026 Small boat crossings are falling fast but the EU is coercing African states to accept deportees or face penalties The numbers look like a win for the European Union’s border policy – on its own terms, at least. Irregular crossings into the EU fell 26% in 2025...
NIGERIAUNITED STATES How Washington’s demands hit voters 6th March 2026 The spreading security emergency and foreign political interference will cost President Bola Tinubu votes A claim by a United States Congressional committee that Nigeria is the deadliest place in the world to practice Christianity has reignited tensions between Washington and Abuja as...
SOMALIA Constitutional talks collapse 6th March 2026 Hassan Sheikh tightens his grip while a divided opposition flounders, fuelling fears of an increasingly authoritarian turn After months of wrangling over constitutional review and the electoral process, February was expected to mark a breakthrough – a moment to settle proposed constitutional changes, agree on...
SOMALIAUNITED STATESSOMALILAND Love me, love my minerals 27th February 2026 Somaliland and Somalia are in a mining-based competition to influence Washington’s stance but the prevailing mood there may be indifference Somaliland Minister of the Presidency Khadar Hussein Abdi repeated on 21 February an oft-made promise: Hargeisa will grant the United States access to its mineral resources, including lithium...
BURKINA FASOMALINIGERUNITED STATES Washington courts the juntas 6th March 2026 A year after breaking with Ecowas, the military regimes face more jihadist assaults but are getting some unlikely help from the US For the juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the first anniversary of their breakaway from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) was marked by an...
SOUTH AFRICA Patrice Motsepe isn’t running for the Presidency – but his campaign won’t listen 4th March 2026 Top ANC officials have rebuked lobbyists who want the mining billionaire and sports funder to run for the party leadership South African mining billionaire Patrice Motsepe is emerging as a reluctant challenger for the leadership of the African National Congress (ANC) at the party’s elective conference at the...
SENEGAL Sonko’s last stand as debt trap closes in 26th February 2026 With the economy in technical default and a student killed in campus protests, the prime minister may be forced to accept an IMF-debt restructuring Senegal’s government is sliding toward a financial reckoning. Now Africa's most indebted country – its debts are estimated at 132% of GDP after a post-election audit exposed US$7...
EAST AFRICAN COMMUNITY Barren road to Arusha 6th March 2026 The East African Community is not short on popularity; Somalia, South Sudan and Congo-Kinshasa have all joined the bloc in the past decade. But it is still hard...
RWANDACONGO-KINSHASAUNITED STATES More pressure on Kigali 6th March 2026 President Félix Tshisekedi’s government is pressing its diplomatic advantage after the US State Department sanctioned the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) and four of its senior commanders for their...