• SOUTHERN AFRICA
• AFRICA IN 2026

Resource booms and their discontents

Rich in oil, gas, copper and diamonds, the region’s economies are trying to diversify and create millions of jobs

Southern Africa in 2026 charts

Angola
Angola’s President João Lourenço knows how he manages the economy and the political system this year in the run up to the 2027 elections will prove critical for the future of the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA), in power since the country’s independence in 1975. Lourenço has to manage the succession race within the MPLA and preside over internal party reforms. Some activists want to split the party leader position from the presidential candidate.

The MPLA is deeply factionalised by the rival contenders in the succession may be cautious not to leave any gaps for the opposition União Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola (UNITA) to exploit. Economic conditions – forecast 2% growth in 2026 and gradual fall in inflation – will not help the MPLA much.

Botswana
President Duma Boko’s Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) government in Botswana wants to push ahead in 2026 with visible anti-corruption moves and job creation initiatives. But Boko will be heavily constrained by fiscal pressures – the budget deficit is due to hit 8% of GDP – due to weak demand for diamonds and production declines. Boko will also test his ability to find investors to back his purchase of a majority stake in the De Beers diamond conglomerate this year.

Eswatini
Although the direct political pressure of Eswatini’s King Mswati III may have ebbed a little since its high point in 2023, the economic downturn and 58% youth unemployment rate are militating against political stability in 2026. The IMF is ratcheting up pressure on the historically corrupt kingdom to tighten budgetary management and boost tax revenues.

Lesotho
Weak GDP growth – down to 1.4% – and lagging structural reforms are set to dominate politics in Lesotho in 2026. The Lesotho Highlands Water Project supplying South Africa help export revenues, badly hit by United States tariffs on Lesotho’s textiles. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Maseru in early January stirring hopes he will offer expanded tariff-free access to China’s market to compensate for US measures.

Madagascar
In Madagascar, Colonel Michael Randrianirina’s government has taken a firm grip on power, three months after leading the coup that ousted former president Andry Rajoelina. Officials in Antananarivo claim some small improvements: fewer power cuts and better water supply. It was complaints about public service delivery that prompted the protests which led to Rajoelina’s overthrow.

A six-month national consultation will conclude in May and is likely to lead to either amendments or the drafting of a new constitution. In December, the Southern African Development Community urged Randrianirina to allow the return of political exiles, and set up a dialogue including a timetable for new elections. Insiders say the new head of state is in no hurry either to hold elections or countenance a restoration of constitutional rule.

Malawi
This will be the first full year of Peter Mutharika’s return to the Presidency in Malawi after winning the September 2025 election and Lazarus Chakwera conceding defeat. A key decision in front of Mutharika is whether to take the tough measures that the IMF considers necessary for a coherent stabilisation programme. The fund reckons Malawi faces a critical juncture with serious forex shortages, high inflation and unsustainable debts.

Mauritius
Prime Minister of Mauritius, Navin Ramgoolam will hope to turn his hosting of this year’s United States-Africa business summit in July into a plethora of new investment deals. Ramgoolam’s ministers are anxious to restore Port Louis’ status as an offshore business hub, putting in place a series of radical tax incentives for foreign firms. Other priorities include the ratification of a 99-year lease deal worth US$11.7 billion with the United Kingdom that will maintain the future of the British-US military base at Diego Garcia but return the Chagos Islands to Mauritian sovereignty.

Mozambique
Over US$50bn of gas investments are riding on Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo’s government and France’s TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné reaching agreement on the country’s LNG project in Cabo Delgado province. That agreement is likely to sway ExxonMobil’s plans for an offshore gas project in the same region.

Chapo is also trying to resolve the rumbling social unrest triggered by the disputed 2024 elections which badly disrupted the economy and exacerbated political divisions.

Namibia
In Namibia, newish President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah says she is determined to deliver on her programme of economic diversification, fighting corruption, boosting agriculture and reducing youth unemployment. In 2026, she is also under pressure to develop a comprehensive strategy to seize the opportunities from the recent oil discoveries. That should translate into regulatory, fiscal and institutional reforms which help the national economy maximise benefits beyond the immediate production windfalls.

Zambia
The presidential elections in Zambia due to 13 August will be the key political event there in 2026. The big risk is that President Hakainde Hichilema’s government breaks with the current financial strictures to ramp up spending ahead of the polls. Hichilema is also racing to complete the debt restructuring which has consumed his Treasury for much of the last four years.

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