Jump to navigation

Published 9th January 2026

Vol 67 No 1

Nigeria

Tinubu faces Trump, terror and tax reform

Bola Tinubu and Kashim Shettima, December 2025. Pic: @officialSKSM
Bola Tinubu and Kashim Shettima, December 2025. Pic: @officialSKSM

A master of electoral politicking, the president is still threatened by rumbling insecurity and shockingly low federal revenues

Only a fool hell-bent on a suicidal path can dare to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, 73, in 2027, says Vice President Kashim Shettima. Discounting politicians’ default sycophancy, Shettima bases his assessment on the established mechanics of Nigerian elections: that the presidential candidate who has the most state governors in support will win at federal level.

The declining democratic dividends

West Africa in 2026 charts. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
West Africa in 2026 charts. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The wave of military coups is still challenging the regional bloc’s governance prescriptions

The results from Benin’s parliamentary elections on 11 January will decide whether there is a strong opposition challenge ahead of April’s presidential elections likely to be won by...

READ FOR FREE

Back to reality

John Dramani Mahama. Pic: @JDMahama
John Dramani Mahama. Pic: @JDMahama

President Mahama had the wind in his sails through 2025. This year will bring a mixed bag of golden opportunities and make-or-break need for reform

The honeymoon period for President John Dramani Mahama will come to an abrupt end in 2026 as political and economic challenges mount. Top of the list will be...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The reshaping of the international system – reflecting a shift of global power eastwards and the west’s reaction to it – will intensify in 2026, adding to the pressure on African states. The growing economic influence and military power of the Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, will accelerate. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back opposing sides in Sudan’s civil war and in the battle for power in Libya. It is also clear that Saudi will side with Egypt and...

The reshaping of the international system – reflecting a shift of global power eastwards and the west’s reaction to it – will intensify in 2026, adding to the pressure on African states. The growing economic influence and military power of the Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, will accelerate. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back opposing sides in Sudan’s civil war and in the battle for power in Libya. It is also clear that Saudi will side with Egypt and Somalia behind Eritrea in any clash with Ethiopia, which will rely on backing from the UAE.

China, whose foreign minister Wang Yi is calling in on Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania and Lesotho on his customary new year tour, may try to dampen down tensions in the Horn of Africa. Wang is also on a wider charm offensive in Africa, launching a new people-to-people programme as a means of promoting China’s soft power. The reach of China’s media, the growing number of African students in Chinese universities and US$300 billion of Sino-African trade point to some success.

The western response, whether from the United States or Europe, suggests very specific and narrow interests in the continent, and at worst indifference. The western obsession with migration has complicated diplomacy, trade and education. Even the west’s interest in critical minerals has triggered only a limited response in Africa because of China’s dominant position in the sector.

Read more

Somaliland’s bombshell ripples through the Horn

National unity, progress against Al Shabaab and international disarray flow from Israel’s recognition of the Somali statelet, along with more unknowns

Any joy at Mogadishu’s successful completion of local elections on 26 December was quickly extinguished by the shock news of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state,...

GNU sets itself to ride the rapids

The president controls the ANC, but the champions of impunity are strong and key state institutions remain in jeopardy

The Government of National Unity is set to steer the country through key equity and economic reforms in the year to come amid severe economic challenges and political...

Shrinking political kingdoms

After winning his fourth presidential election, Alassane Ouattara is under pressure to organise a succession plan

With the presidential and legislative elections done and dusted amidst much indifference (the 28 December legislative elections attracted less than a third of eligible voters), political minds can...

The year of the Queen Bee

So closely are Kuda Tagwirei’s fortunes entwined with those of ZANU-PF that what’s good for the economy will be great for him but few others

Zimbabwe’s chief oligarch, Kudakwashe Tagwirei – dubbed ‘Queen Bee’ for his domination of the economy – will determine the country’s 2026. With substantial interests in the fuel, energy,...

All eyes on Simandou

Opening one of the biggest iron ore mines in the world helped General Doumbouya win the election – now people want to see the benefits

General Mamady Doumbouya is a happy man at the start of the New Year. Since his election on 28 December as Guinea’s first nonpartisan candidate (he hardly bothered...

As pressure mounts, Kagame plays security card

Kigali holds its economy on course as it funds its Donbas strategy in neighbouring Congo-Kinshasa

Rwanda has kept its extensive operations in Congo-Kinshasa off-budget by reviving its military’s involvement in the eastern Congolese mineral trade. Evidence of increased military spending could have derailed...

Undoing what remains of the nation

Geopolitical tensions are rising, clashes between the powers behind the warring parties are increasing, and the communal element of the fighting is worsening

Sudan’s conflict is changing. What started as a military confrontation between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in April 2023 has evolved into something else...

Stories by country

Footer Map