PREVIEW
With the highest regional growth rate, East Africa’s economies are vulnerable to external forces intervening in disputes
East Africa in 2026 charts
In 2026 Djibouti finds itself at the centre of the growing regional divide between Somalia, Eritrea and Egypt on the one hand and the opposing alliance of Ethiopia, and the breakaway region of Somaliland, backed by the United Arab Emirates. The key issue dividing the two blocs is Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s quest for access to the sea; specifically, he is targeting Eritrea’s port of Assab which he points out was once within the Ethiopian empire. Djibouti, which earns about US$1.5 billion a year from allowing Ethiopia to use its port, aligns itself with Eritrea and Egypt.
This adds a frisson of drama to the presidential elections due in April in which Ismail Omar Guelleh will stand for a sixth term, following last year’s constitutional changes which abolished term limits. The ruling Rassemblement Populaire pour le Progrès (RPP) has already nominated Guelleh as its candidate. Guelleh keeps a tight grip on political system, but he may face added pressure if the geopolitical ructions in the region begin to slow the economy.
In Comoros, President Azali Assoumani and the ruling Convention pour le Renouveau des Comores (CRC) continue to dominate the government after the disputed elections in 2025 with opposition parties largely excluded from government.
Some of the opposition parties had boycotted the elections in protest against Assoumani’s blocking of electoral reform. Opposition activism, including corporate boycotts and local protests and disruptions, has been reinforced by serial reports that Assoumani is trying to groom his son for the succession. Harsher economic conditions in Comoros, partly driven by climate change and cyclone-related power disruptions, will also threaten Assoumani’s position if the GDP growth rate slows appreciably this year.
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