A master of electoral politicking, the president is still threatened by rumbling insecurity and shockingly low federal revenues
Only a fool hell-bent on a suicidal path can dare to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, 73, in 2027, says Vice President Kashim Shettima. Discounting politicians’ default sycophancy,...
The wave of military coups is still challenging the regional bloc’s governance prescriptions
The results from Benin’s parliamentary elections on 11 January will decide whether there is a strong opposition challenge ahead of April’s presidential elections likely to be won by...
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President Mahama had the wind in his sails through 2025. This year will bring a mixed bag of golden opportunities and make-or-break need for reform
The honeymoon period for President John Dramani Mahama will come to an abrupt end in 2026 as political and economic challenges mount. Top of the list will be...
For Goïta, Tiani and Traoré, the year offers bleak prospects of any progress in the war on jihad
Niger is the second Sahel state (Burkina Faso was the first in 2023) to announce a draconian national mobilisation. A resolution adopted by its cabinet of ministers on...
After winning his fourth presidential election, Alassane Ouattara is under pressure to organise a succession plan
With the presidential and legislative elections done and dusted amidst much indifference (the 28 December legislative elections attracted less than a third of eligible voters), political minds can...
Opening one of the biggest iron ore mines in the world helped General Doumbouya win the election – now people want to see the benefits
General Mamady Doumbouya is a happy man at the start of the New Year. Since his election on 28 December as Guinea’s first nonpartisan candidate (he hardly bothered...
Will President and Prime Minister agree to set aside differences and work together to meet great expectations and stop jihadists on the border?
This has to be the year of delivery for President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko as their administration moves into midterm, the electoral triumphs of...
With the highest regional growth rate, East Africa’s economies are vulnerable to external forces intervening in disputes
In 2026 Djibouti finds itself at the centre of the growing regional divide between Somalia, Eritrea and Egypt on the one hand and the opposing alliance of Ethiopia,...
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Bujumbura’s army took a hammering from Rwandan and M23 militia forces when it tried to help Kinshasa
President Évariste Ndayishimiye’s New Year jitters after the capture by M23 and Rwandan troops of Uvira, a city 5 kilometres from the Burundian border, will hardly have been...
For now, Prime Minister Abiy’s federal government lacks the military capacity to escalate its war of words with Eritrea
The dark clouds of a new Ethiopia-Eritrea war are set to linger over Addis Ababa in 2026. Yet despite an ongoing risk of escalation, hostilities will likely remain...
The president will use 2026 to strengthen the broad-based coalition that is likely to carry him to re-election in August 2027
An early test will be internal elections in William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) – initially supposed to take place in mid-2024 but which will now happen on...
Kigali holds its economy on course as it funds its Donbas strategy in neighbouring Congo-Kinshasa
Rwanda has kept its extensive operations in Congo-Kinshasa off-budget by reviving its military’s involvement in the eastern Congolese mineral trade. Evidence of increased military spending could have derailed...
National unity, progress against Al Shabaab and international disarray flow from Israel’s recognition of the Somali statelet, along with more unknowns
Any joy at Mogadishu’s successful completion of local elections on 26 December was quickly extinguished by the shock news of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state,...
Investment may plummet and growth may slow if no state agencies are held to account for the brutal repression of election protests
Keeping the economy afloat in the face of international moves to suspend funding and investments is the biggest challenge facing President Samia Suluhu Hassan as she attempts to...
Geopolitical tensions are rising, clashes between the powers behind the warring parties are increasing, and the communal element of the fighting is worsening
Sudan’s conflict is changing. What started as a military confrontation between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in April 2023 has evolved into something else...
Few doubt that Yoweri Museveni will extend his presidency into its 41st year with elections on 15 January. What happens next is far less clear
The government of Yoweri Museveni is leaving nothing to chance, and the president’s son (and presumed heir), Defence Forces chief General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has been put at the...
With two of the world’s longest standing and oldest leaders nearing the exit, the region is bracing for change
The succession questions surrounding Cameroon’s President Paul Biya, 92, are more urgent than ever despite his inauguration for his eighth term in November. The fraud around last year’s...
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The opposition doesn’t present half the threat to the president that his fractious allies do
The inner circle around President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno ‘Kaka’ is in turmoil, especially since the fall of El Fasher, the capital of the Sudanese province of Darfur,...
The lack of enforcement mechanisms means no one is pressured to respect the US and Qatari accords
In the opening days of 2026, the latest UN experts’ report confirmed the widely held view that the war aims of the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and its...
The President looks secure but peace is expensive, and with Russians in retreat there are high hopes the UAE can ride to the rescue
President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s overwhelming, and fraudulent, win at the polls in December which gave him a third term, showcases two current trends in Africa: one, the skills in...
Rich in oil, gas, copper and diamonds, the region’s economies are trying to diversify and create millions of jobs
Angola’s President João Lourenço knows how he manages the economy and the political system this year in the run up to the 2027 elections will prove critical for...
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The president controls the ANC, but the champions of impunity are strong and key state institutions remain in jeopardy
The Government of National Unity is set to steer the country through key equity and economic reforms in the year to come amid severe economic challenges and political...
So closely are Kuda Tagwirei’s fortunes entwined with those of ZANU-PF that what’s good for the economy will be great for him but few others
Zimbabwe’s chief oligarch, Kudakwashe Tagwirei – dubbed ‘Queen Bee’ for his domination of the economy – will determine the country’s 2026. With substantial interests in the fuel, energy,...
Two of the region’s economies are diversifying with some success but are being outpaced by the demand for new jobs
Regimes and their propaganda machines can point to areas of progress in 2025 that should give North Africans grounds for hope of a better future: so why are...
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Publicly bullish about new oil and gas investment, political elites are nervous about losing public opinion
Algeria is beefing up its security forces to keep a lid on opposition this year. El Hirak (The Movement), whose actions in 2019 removed ex-president Abdelaziz Bouteflika –...
Economic woes threaten to collapse President Abdel Fattah el Sisi’s new castles built on sand
Egypt is mired in geopolitical crises and financial deficits – underwritten by Gulf states that increasingly want to turn a profit for their dollars from an economy that...
Elections and Western Sahara will preoccupy minds in Rabat
The prevailing narrative in Morocco has it that King Mohammed VI (M6) has presided over social uplift, impressive new infrastructure and major progress in achieving the central policy...
Stand-offs with Western lenders leave the president reliant on regional banks and the Gulf
Tunisia has returned to a highly personalised form of rule since President Kaïs Saïed was elected in 2019, and whose July 2021 ‘state of exception’ – now most...
