PREVIEW
The wave of military coups is still challenging the regional bloc’s governance prescriptions
West Africa in 2026 charts
The results from Benin’s parliamentary elections on 11 January will decide whether there is a strong opposition challenge ahead of April’s presidential elections likely to be won by Romuald Wadagni, the chosen successor of incumbent Patrice Talon.
Currently finance minister, Wadagni will inherit a strong economy but widespread political disenchantment after the failed coup in December whose leader, Lieutenant Colonel Pascal Tigri remains at large.
Parliamentary and presidential elections are due in Cabo Verde in October. The government of President José Maria Neves may ramp up spending ahead of the vote and undermine the latest fiscal reforms according to the IMF.
A national debate on constitutional reform and ending term limits are set to dominate politics in Gambia ahead of national elections due on 5 December. Also likely to fire up the country’s politics is the threatened return to Gambia of deposed military leader Yahya Jammeh, exiled in Equatorial Guinea. Incumbent President Adama Barrow, who has attempted to draw in some of Jammeh’s old political base, has been unclear about whether the former leader would face immediate arrest and prosecution on the extant charges of corruption and murder.
Politics in Guinea-Bissau will be dominated by the after-effects of the bizarre and failed coup attempt against outgoing President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and the associated pursuit of opposition leader Fernando Dias da Costa. The Economic Community of West African States is trying to pressure the interim leader General Horta Int-A Na Man to keep to the schedule to return the country to civil rule by November 2026.
Three years away from the next election in Liberia, 2026 will be an opportunity for President Joseph Boakai to push ahead with his governance and economic reforms. There will also be some important diplomatic work: Liberia’s two-year stint on the UN Security Council starts in January and it is at the centre of the ‘Liberty Corridor’ project linked to a high-quality iron ore mine at Kon Kweni being promoted by Peter Pham, former United States envoy to the Great Lakes.
The polite term for Sierra Leone’s governance lapses, which include the first family’s hosting of a Dutch citizen charged with cocaine smuggling, is called ‘reform fatigue’ by the IMF. The fund also warns that poor management public spending cuts could make its economic reform program politically unsustainable. That is highly relevant for President Julius Maada Bio, whose standing was badly hit by the cocaine scandal last year (AC Vol 66 No 3, President Bio keeps cocaine lord in the family, Vol 66 No 4, Freetown falls out with the Hague over cocaine & Vol 66 No 7, The Hague doubts that Bio’s government will arrest cocaine kingpin). He will also have to contend with his ambitious lieutenants planning to run for the presidency in 2028: Chief Minister David Sengeh, who has clashed with First Lady Fatima Bio, and Vice President Mohammed Juldeh Jalloh. Both Bio’s Sierra Leone People’s Party and the opposition All People’s Congress are set to spend much of the year on international reorganisation to tune up their electoral machines.
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Also in this issue
NIGERIA IN 2026: Tinubu faces Trump, terror and tax reform
A master of electoral politicking, the president is still threatened by rumbling insecurity and shockingly low federal revenues
GHANA IN 2026: Back to reality
President Mahama had the wind in his sails through 2025. This year will bring a mixed bag of golden opportunities and make-or-break need for reform
SAHEL IN 2026: More volatile, more unpredictable, more violent
For Goïta, Tiani and Traoré, the year offers bleak prospects of any progress in the war on jihad
CÔTE D’IVOIRE IN 2026: Shrinking political kingdoms
After winning his fourth presidential election, Alassane Ouattara is under pressure to organise a succession plan
GUINEA IN 2026: All eyes on Simandou
Opening one of the biggest iron ore mines in the world helped General Doumbouya win the election – now people want to see the benefits
SENEGAL IN 2026: The tipping point
Will President and Prime Minister agree to set aside differences and work together to meet great expectations and stop jihadists on the border?
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