PREVIEW
With two of the world’s longest standing and oldest leaders nearing the exit, the region is bracing for change
Central Africa in 2026 charts
The succession questions surrounding Cameroon’s President Paul Biya, 92, are more urgent than ever despite his inauguration for his eighth term in November. The fraud around last year’s election, which many independent figures judge to have been won by oppositionist Issa Tchiroma Bakary, stripped any pretence of legitimacy Biya’s supporters had been holding up.
With Bakary in exile in Gambia, and Biya’s security cracking down brutally on opposition activists and allies of Maurice Kamto, another leading challenger, opposition activists are regrouping and debating how to put up a united front against Biya at the parliamentary elections due this year. The most immediate threat to Biya is the deepening frustration with his failure to organise a succession plan and his inability to control the multiple egos jostling for position within the inner circle in Yaoundé.
The exit of western oil companies, such as ExxonMobil, from Equatorial Guinea has worsened the economic devastation caused by President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo and his family’s mismanagement and grand corruption. The national economy is forecast to grow at around 0.7%, one of the worst outurns for any small population and resource-rich country in the world. There is no sign that Obiang or his favoured son, heir apparent Teodorin, are willing to take the tough decisions to diversify away from dependence on fossil fuel exports. Instead, they are buying in Russian security officers to help them repress dissent.
There may have been some skulduggery to produce his 90.3% of the vote in the presidential election in April on a 70.4% turnout, but Gabon’s President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema has begun his seven-year mandate with substantial political authority. Much of his popularity rests on his ousting of the Bongo family dynasty in 2023 but he is expected to deliver a stronger economy this year and show success in his anti-corruption crackdown.
Oligui Nguema faces heavy financial constraints this year after his government offered high returns to attract buyers for its Eurobond issuance last year. He will also have to strengthen his ministerial and management team is he is to engineer a speedy post-election economic recovery.
Less corrupt and repressive than his counterpart in Equatorial Guinea, São Tomé e Príncipe’s Prime Minister Américo Ramos of the Acção Democrática Independente (ADI), has also approved a military cooperation agreement with Russia, first signed in St. Petersburg in 2024 by former Defence Minister Jorge Amado. Ministers have also endorsed agreements on training with Turkey and cooperation with Serbia. The big political event in São Tomé e Príncipe in 2026 is the presidential election due to be held by July. Real power is with Ramos as prime minister, but the electioneering will unleash fresh tensions between the executive and the parliament.
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