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Vol 67 No 1

Published 9th January 2026


Eritrea

Domestic fires are reining in regional ambitions

For now, Prime Minister Abiy’s federal government lacks the military capacity to escalate its war of words with Eritrea

The dark clouds of a new Ethiopia-Eritrea war are set to linger over Addis Ababa in 2026. Yet despite an ongoing risk of escalation, hostilities will likely remain rhetorical. While there is regular propaganda from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government about reclaiming Assab – a seaport in Eritrea just north of Djibouti that was part of Ethiopia until the former’s secession in the early 1990s – Ethiopia lacks the military capacity for escalation. That is symptomatic of Abiy’s overall predicament: ambition is not lacking but the means to achieve it are.

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