Religious leaders and even Isaq notables – among them former President Muse Bihi Abdi – want the pact with Israel to be published and to be given assurances that it will not negatively impact the Palestinians...

At the time of his election Irro believed he could reverse some of the heavy-handed policies of his predecessor Muse Bihi Abdi and engage the Dhulbahante traditional and political elites to prevent the creation of the North-East state but it was too late...

A landmark conference to establish a new Federal Member State of Somalia Khatumo State concluded on 31 July in Las Anod the town that Somaliland's President Muse Bihi Abdi tried to subjugate by force two years ago but was successfully defended by mainly Dhulbahante clan members (AC Vol 64 No 19 Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen)...

SSC's status remained in limbo until Muse Bihi opened his offensive against Las Anod in December 2022 (AC Vol 64 No 3 Clashes damage recognition campaign)...

Muse Bihi believed his army was strong enough to steamroller dissent in Las Anod but when it attacked the effect was to unite the hitherto divided Dhulbahante and make the defence of Las Anod a rallying point...

This is how the desire for a Khatumo state came about and for that all agree Muse Bihi only has himself to blame...

But deteriorating relations between Mogadishu and Puntland as well as the shock signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopian prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Muse Bihi on 1 January 2024 pushed Hassan Sheikh into opposing Hargeisa...

Elections in Somaliland gave hope to many who were dismayed at the dangerous direction in which President Muse Bihi Abdi was heading...

One highly positive development is the accord signed in Ankara between Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud brokered personally by Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in December which has calmed the crisis (AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...

The decisive victory for Abdirahman Mahamed Abdullahi Irro with 64% in the 13 November presidential elections should be seen as the culmination of two years of politicking during which the incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi tried to delay and manipulate the constitutional process at the expense of his Isaq and non-Isaq opposition...

In parts of Somaliland where many inhabitants want their future to be as part of a federal Somalia polling stations and voters were conspicuously absent (AC Vol 64 No 19 Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen)...

Muse Bihi's defeat is not a surprise though his 34% vote share is much lower than many expected...

That's not because the recognition of Somaliland is impossible but Muse Bihi should not have begged for it from his closest ally...

This prospect was eagerly seized by Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi who celebrated the breakthrough...

Any humiliation of Abiy may boost military support for Hargeisa particularly as Muse Bihi is planning operations against Las Anood and Eerigaavo to re-establish some form of Isaaq unity before the November elections...

Supposedly the government allowed the attack to take place to improve its bargaining position in talks over what security force will take over from the African Transition Mission in Somalia when it leaves in December (ATMIS – AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...

Nobody yet knows whether the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi of the breakaway state of Somaliland is any more than a ‘memorandum of misunderstanding'...

We hear that Muse Bihi emboldened by his alliance with Addis Ababa is planning further violence in Somaliland to extend his hegemony and quell internal dissent...

Unable to bank on Addis's endorsement of Somaliland independence Muse Bihi and his supporters are concentrating on the military alliance with his powerful neighbour...

About 4 000 Somaliland troops are being trained in Ethiopia according to witnesses in the border town of Tug Wajale and there is widespread talk in Hargeisa that ‘order' will be restored in Awdal the western part of Somaliland on the border with Djibouti where dissent against Muse Bihi has grown over the last decade...

Somaliland troops have often trained in Ethiopia but the current high numbers raise concern that Muse Bihi may want a new offensive aimed at recovering ground lost to the new Sool Sanaag and Cayn (SSC) regional administration in the last year (AC Vol 64 No 19 Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen)...

Muse Bihi may calculated that a blitzkrieg in the east could restore confidence in him among members of the Isaq clan...

They see Muse Bihi's military presence in Awdal state growing as the former Somaliland president and Gadabursi elder Dahir Riyale Kahin has been unable to curb dissidents and rebuild a consensus in his clan in favour of the Somaliland nationhood project (AC Vol 43 No 10 Separate & sovereign)...

Following a failed meeting with Muse Bihi and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the Somali Federal Government in December President Guelleh (who is Iise/Mamasan) and his wife Khadra Mahamud Haid (who is Sa'ad Muuse/Haber Awal) tried to reconcile the two men and prevent Djibouti being fought over (AC Vol 65 No 2 Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding')...

Guelleh and his influential spouse have recently done their best to convince the biggest Isaq traders who have Djibouti nationality to get Muse Bihi to renounce the MoU...

But they claimed to have no leverage with Muse Bihi so Guelleh changed tack and upped the stakes...

The presidential couple is anxious to prevent Muse Bihi's security apparatus brutally intervening in the Iise and Gadabursi town of Borama which is held up as a model of civilised Somali urban living by its champions and felt a tough stand would help...

The two five-person delegations were present but did not meet face-to-face while Turkish diplomats shuttled between them (AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...