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Vol 67 No 2

Published 23rd January 2026


Why the fight between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is lighting regional fires

Far from mediating peace deals in Africa, the rival Gulf monarchies are exacerbating conflict

The outbreak of controlled hostilities between the monarchies of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates in December is deepening fissures across East Africa and the Horn. There are two obvious flashpoints: Israel’s recognition, backed and coordinated by the UAE, of the territorial integrity of the Somaliland region, which broke away from Somalia in 1991, is strongly opposed by all the regional organisations together with China and Turkey. But Ethiopia and Kenya, close to both Israel and the UAE, are sympathetic to recognition but calculate the risks are too high for now.

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