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Published 23rd January 2026

Vol 67 No 2


Why the fight between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is lighting regional fires

RED SEA RIVALRIES: New alliances form as UAE-Saudi Arabia hostilities deepen. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
RED SEA RIVALRIES: New alliances form as UAE-Saudi Arabia hostilities deepen. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Far from mediating peace deals in Africa, the rival Gulf monarchies are exacerbating conflict

The outbreak of controlled hostilities between the monarchies of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates in December is deepening fissures across East Africa and the Horn. There are two obvious flashpoints: Israel’s recognition, backed and coordinated by the UAE, of the territorial integrity of the Somaliland region, which broke away from Somalia in 1991, is strongly opposed by all the regional organisations together with China and Turkey. But Ethiopia and Kenya, close to both Israel and the UAE, are sympathetic to recognition but calculate the risks are too high for now.


How Museveni won in Buganda

Yoweri Museveni. Pic: @KagutaMuseveni
Yoweri Museveni. Pic: @KagutaMuseveni

A fierce crackdown and a fractured opposition decisively shifted the contest long before the votes were counted

President Yoweri Museveni was expected to retain power following the 15 January polls. But few anticipated he would win with such a margin or that the ruling party...


Abiy’s proxy war tactics reach their limit

ETHIOPIA: Insurgents in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray step up campaign against Addis. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA: Insurgents in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray step up campaign against Addis. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Oppositionists make progress on a unity deal as insurgents tighten their grip on Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia

Ethiopia is trapped in a stalemate. With military victory impossible and political consensus unreachable, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government is falling back on divide and rule. The prime...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

A leaked email to staff by Nick Checker, the head of the United States State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, in which he urges staff to trumpet the ‘generosity’ of the American people despite the Trump administration’s decision to shutter USAID, is as incendiary and embarrassing as it is damaging to Washington’s interests. ‘Africa is a peripheral – rather than a core – theatre for US interests,’ states Checker, adding that ‘fram...

A leaked email to staff by Nick Checker, the head of the United States State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, in which he urges staff to trumpet the ‘generosity’ of the American people despite the Trump administration’s decision to shutter USAID, is as incendiary and embarrassing as it is damaging to Washington’s interests. ‘Africa is a peripheral – rather than a core – theatre for US interests,’ states Checker, adding that ‘framing Africa as “strategic” has often historically served bureaucratic and moral imperatives, not hard interests’. Checker’s email lists ‘opportunities for engagement’ such as negotiating settlements in Congo-Kinshasa, Rwanda and Sudan, but most relate to the US gaining access to critical minerals or fossil fuels.

Few African leaders were under any illusions about the Trump administration’s interest in their countries. But that has not stopped many of them hiring lobbyists in Washington with links to Trump’s inner circle. For some, Trump’s openly transactional style of diplomacy has its attractions. US lawmakers in Congress are now close to extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act until the end of 2028, with many citing AGOA as a vital counterweight to China’s economic influence across Africa. For Washington’s traditional diplomats, Checker’s comments minimised decades of carefully accrued soft power. The US still wields hard power but it can’t match China’s commercial outreach in Africa.

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Sublime and ridiculous

Having claimed a global success in its hosting of Afcon, Morocco now turns from the spectacle back to the business of maintaining stability

Until its chaotic final on the evening of 18 January, Morocco had enjoyed an exceptional Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon), marked by state-of-the-art stadia served by new motorways...


Green shoots amid global chaos

There are reasons for optimism on growth and inflation but concerns on the cost of Africa’s debts persist

After a year of global uncertainty during which Africa’s economies were hit by the tariff war fallout, deep cuts in official development assistance (ODA), and the impact of...


Transport services still snagged after election chaos

Dar es Salaam’s transit reforms are stalling due to vested interests and use of opaque private companies

On 8 January, 49 buses were delivered to Dar es Salaam port – with another 50 due later this month – as part of an emergency response to...


Ramaphosa’s authority shaken as generals defy orders

Senior commanders ignored the President’s instruction to restrict Iran’s role in China’s naval exercise off Cape Town

The confrontation over Pretoria’s security ties with Tehran – specifically its participation in South African-hosted naval exercises – underlines the erosion of civilian control over the military and...


Seventh time lucky for Museveni

The only unknown in Uganda’s election is the margin of the incumbent’s violent victory, as citizens look forward with alarm to the prospect of his son’s rule

Ahead of polling day on 15 January the streets of Kampala were thronged not with citizens, but with lines of armoured personnel carriers and uniformed police and soldiers...



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