Whoever wins the presidential election starting on 29 August faces a huge task in keeping order. Incumbent President Ange-Félix Patassé is the favourite, though probably not in the first round. The winner will be helped for a time by the Mission des Nations Unies en République Centrafricaine (Minurca) which is to supervise the poll and is already overseeing the restructuring of the army. So far, election preparations - ten candidates have registered - are going better than the military reforms. Minurca cannot afford to fail on either count. It is one of the United Nations' first attempts at 'preventive peace-keeping'; it has also been run by Europe (particularly France), without United States' cash or logistics. It will face its toughest test this month: the danger is that political rivals will resort to violence again if they don't like the election result, especially if they smell fraud.
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