Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026 The deepening political crisis in Somalia is pitting President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's federal government against an opposition coalition including the federal member states of Puntland in the north and Jubaland in the south as well as the former president of South West State Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed (also known as Lafta Gareen)...
This has been pitting federal forces recruited from the federal state administrations in South West State Hirshabelle and Galmudug against opposition forces backing the state's former president Lafta Gareen who was overthrown in March...
The overthrow of the president of the South-West State Lafta Gareen in March provided Al Shabaab with an opportunity to recruit new allies from the Laysan and Haarin clans who had supported Lafta Gareen's rule...
Lafta Gareen's uncle the former Somali Correctional Service Commander General Mahad Abdirahman Adan 'Shub' was accused of being the go-between which may explain why his house in Doolow was bombed in early September...
Despite failing several times to regain control of the capital city of the South-West state Lafta Gareen has through this alliance been able to regain control of all Bay region districts including one that is home to the Eelay clan...
This clan was instrumental in overthrowing Lafta Gareen and has been allied with the newly elected South-West President Adan Mahamed Nur Madobe who is also a Mogadishu ally...
The reason was that Hassan Sheikh at the request of the Southwest State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed 'Lafta Gareen' and the Speaker of Parliament Adan Mahamed Nur Madobe had agreed to train a full contingent of Rahanweyn fighters without screening them...
And South West President Abdiaziz Hasan Mohamed (Lafta Gareen) was a member of the force...
And South West President Abdiaziz Hasan Mohamed (Lafta Gareen) was a member of the force...
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We hear that after annoying Hassan Sheikh by taking visits from President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland and Puntland's President Said Abdullahi Deni he will invite South West State's President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed 'Lafta Gareen' to the Ethiopian capital...
For Lafta Gareen there is no profit in provoking Mogadishu...
The new contingent will be important in containing Al Shabaab in his region and that means Lafta Gareen must keep Mogadishu onside...
Hassan Sheikh also visited Baydhabo on 18 and 19 October to assure the South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed 'Lafta Gareen' of his full support and to encourage him to open operations against Al Shabaab in Bakool with the aim of preventing the Islamist militia moving fighters into Hiran...
Mainly this is because South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed 'Lafta Gareen' feels isolated and believes that hosting more federal troops could threaten his presidency...
The state of the statesThe South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed 'Lafta Gareen' who was installed with the help of Farmajo doesn't want to join the broad front against Al Shabaab because he fears the Somali National Army (SNA) could influence the elections in the state due this year against him (AC Vol 60 No 2 Mogadishu lashes out)...
Robow was tipped to win the state's presidential election until Federal President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' ordered Ethiopian troops to detain him and ensure victory for Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed 'Lafta Gareen' (Rahanweyn/Xarin)...
Lafta Gareen's mother belongs to the same clan as Farmajo (Darod/Marehan)...
The US government meanwhile bankrolled the state election and then deepened its relationship with Lafta Gareen...
Three days after the Nairobi assault an Ethiopian military convoy came under attack near Bur Hakaba on its way to Baidoa where President Mohammed Abdullah Mohammed 'Farmajo' was staying to attend the inauguration of the new South West State President Lafta Gareen (AC Vol 59 No 24 Poll fight for Farmajo)...
Robow who defected to the government in August 2017 had been officially approved as a candidate in South West State after wide consultation but Farmajo's administration had been spending large sums to ensure the election of Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed 'Lafta Gareen' (AC Vol 59 No 24 Poll fight for Farmajo & Vol 58 No 18 The split that never was)...
So Farmajo had to remove him by force so Lafta Gareen could win which he now has in a pyrrhic victory for Mogadishu...
