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Vol 55 No 5

Published 7th March 2014

South Africa

Which ANC will win?

Jobs, living standards and the liberation legacy will dominate the elections but it’s the political aftermath that counts

Although the victory of the African National Congress is not in doubt, general elections on 7 May will show the pace and extent of political realignments (AC Vol 54 No 20, Political mould starts to break & How the parties will go into 2014). Both the left and the right are regrouping against the ANC juggernaut and in certain cities and in Western Cape Province, will knock it into second place. Yet in elections deliberately timed for the week after the 20th anniversary of the country's first free elections on 27 April 1994, the liberation ethos will remain the ANC's greatest asset, closely followed by its still unmatched organisation at national, provincial and district level. Its other advantage is the lack of unity among the opposition, whatever their ideological hue.

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