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First shockwaves from US-Iran war hit Africa
Africa Confidential
The effects of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran are multiplying as the conflict spreads across the region hitting both economic and political targets. The first blows on Africa were economic. The resulting spike in oil prices will spark inflation across the continent just as many countries were stabilising public finances and bringing down borrowing costs. If Iran delivers on its threat to close the Hormuz Straits – through which much of East and Northern Africa’s food imports pass as well as a fifth of global oil exports – inflation will rise further still, and there could be prolonged commodity shortages. Fertiliser costs, already rising, could spike further, increasing food prices and input costs for farmers. That will hit east and southern African states. And tougher conditions will act as a drag on the continent’s biggest economies – Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa – due to a combination of higher fuel and fertiliser prices and capital flight if global financial jitters intensify.
The war will have wider geopolitical effects. Russia will step up its search for naval bases on the Red Sea. The reach of Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council states could weaken in Africa if it forces them to focus locally. States such as Turkey will boost their regional role. But the competition between Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates for influence in Africa may even deepen, despite their making common cause against Iran for now.
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