confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
How South Africa’s Ramaphosa could win legally but trigger a political disaster
Africa Confidential
South Africa’s Constitutional Court has stripped away the procedural cover that had protected President Cyril Ramaphosa and resurrected the scandal over US$4 million in cash hidden under a sofa in his Phala Phala farmhouse. The court ruled that Parliament acted unlawfully in 2022 when it dismissed a panel report by retired judges accusing Ramaphosa of wrongdoing and calling for his impeachment.
Ramaphosa says he will not resign, insisting the panel report is gravely flawed, and plans an expedited review application. His national address on 11 May pointed to a genuine grievance. The independent panel’s finding that he may have breached the constitution rested partly on hearsay, and several regulatory bodies subsequently cleared him.
Ramaphosa has to weigh more than his chances of surviving an impeachment vote. On current numbers, he probably can. The ANC holds about 40% of National Assembly seats; his removal would require a two-thirds majority. The bigger problem is credibility. A president elected on a platform of political reform and institutional renewal seems to be relying on technical defences and corralling MPs to avoid accountability.
Without an effective response, Ramaphosa could face prolonged challenges on multiple fronts: in the courts, in Parliament, and among his opponents in the ANC. With local elections in November, the party’s fortunes could take another hit, made worse by its leader’s legal travails.
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
https://www.africa-confidential.com
