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Ramaphosa prepares for clash as anti-migrant groups set deadline
Africa Confidential
The 30 June deadline for undocumented migrants to leave South Africa, set by the anti-immigrant pressure group March and March, is a major test of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government. The group sees the deadline as an opportunity to propel itself and its leader, Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma, into national politics, much as the far and nationalist right has done across Europe and the United States.
The legitimate grievance it has tapped into is the widespread use of undocumented labour by businesses, which depresses wages. And the deadly violence against African migrants has already inflicted serious damage on South Africa’s international reputation. But the toxic combination of low growth, low wages and high unemployment that March and March has traded on is a highly selective reading of the economy. Forecasts by Investec Group that South Africa’s growth rate could reach 3% by 2030 – as bottlenecks in electricity, logistics and other infrastructure ease – suggest a far less bleak outlook.
The OECD, the World Bank and the IOM estimate that immigrants contribute a 5% boost to South Africa’s per capita incomes. They highlight a multiplier effect in which migration drives significant increases in job creation.
‘It is vital that migration be managed in a lawful, orderly and humane manner,’ International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola said last week. It is just as important that this sentiment carries the day.
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