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Fighting intensifies between Ethiopia's federal forces and the TPLF as the UN Assembly meets
Africa Confidential
In a healthier multilateral era, the latest fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and their Tigrayan counterparts as the world’s diplomats gather at the UN General Assembly would prompt a credible response to a conflict that risks igniting a regional conflagration.
The capture of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline by the Houthi rebel group, who now control the Bab el Mandeb Strait, unsettles Djibouti and Somalia and hits the economies of Egypt and Ethiopia. Some 97% of Ethiopia’s trade moves through Djibouti’s port.
After months of skirmishes, Ethiopian officials accuse the Tigray People’s Liberation Front of launching an all-out offensive against federal government positions in the Afar and Amhara regions and of taking control of Mekelle airport. The clashes come days after the TPLF was announced as part of a new alliance of anti-government groups from across the country.
The fighting in northern Ethiopia could offer Eritrea’s President Issayas Afewerki an opportunity to destabilise Addis Ababa. Where does this leave embattled Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed? He could be forced – or encouraged – to consider diversifying Ethiopia’s trade towards other ports, such as Berbera in Somaliland, or revisiting the long-held goal of gaining access to the Red Sea via Assab on Eritrea’s coastline. Any of these options, even if backed by Abiy’s allies in the United Arab Emirates, would carry extraordinarily high political risks.
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