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The politics of no

Party feuding, jarring personalities and tax deals – not rivalry with China – have kept ExxonMobil out of Ghana’s oil fields

A government team in the oil battle

President John Evans Atta Mills has remained above the fray throughout the dispute between the Ghana National Petroleum ...

SUDAN

No referee for the referenda

Khartoum is determined to block January’s referenda; the South is determined to hold them

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

South Africa’s usually amenable President Jacob Zuma rails against journalists’ interest in the business liaisons of the African National Congress. ‘The media has put itself on this pedestal of being the guardian,’ he fumes. ‘We therefore have the right to say who is guarding the guardian.’ He accuses the press of conspiring to stop him becoming president – it reported in detail the charges against him in 2007 of corruption, racketeering, fraud, money laundering and tax evasion. All the charges were dropped just before his election in 2009. Zuma proposed a media tribunal to regulate critical reporting. The Congress for South African Trade Unions, whose members are now on a national strike, has warned that it could become a censorship tool. Cosatu’s position will do nothing to shore up its already faltering alliance with the ANC. The opposition Democratic Alliance has compared the plan to the draconian apartheid-era press controls; the move has been widely condemned by Western newspapers. Only a few ANC chieftains, such as Pallo Jordan and Ben Turok, have ventured to criticise the proposal, but some hope it might be quietly dropped before the party’s National General Council next month. That is improbable, as Zuma’s supporters are ready for a fight with the journalists. If the hardliners win, it will be to the detriment of the freedom to investigate political and corporate malfeasance and to South Africa’s international standing, boosted hugely by its successful hosting of the World Cup.

SUDAN

Strategy of sabotage

The National Congress Party employs a variety of tactics to sabotage January’s referenda. Because a 60% quorum (of a still undefined electorate) is needed and a 51% vote for or against, every NCP move counts.

RWANDA

The polls close but violence continues

Assassination attempts – failed and successful – have tarnished Paul Kagame’s second landslide election victory. Nobody was surprised when, on 9 August, Kagame was reelected to the seven-year presidency with 93.08% of the national vote. His three authorised opponents were Jean-Damascène Ntawukuriryayo of the Parti Social Démocrate and Vice-President of the National Assembly, with 5.15% of the vote; Prosper Higiro, Parti Libéral, Senate Vice-President, 1.37%; and Alvera Mukabaramba,du Progrès et de la Concorde, with 0.4%. All three have operated as part of the ruling coalition, the Forum de Concertation des Formations Politiques.

ANALYSIS | NORTH-EAST AFRICA

The battle of the Nile

The old arguments about the Nile waters will enter a new stage this autumn, when the nine governments of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) next meet. On present form, it looks improbable that this will heal the rift between Egypt and Sudan on one hand and the upstream countries on the other. The flow of conciliatory but firm statements from Egypt and Ethiopia has been rising. Rwanda and Tanzania joined Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda (all major regional players) in signalling that it was time for change by signing the NBI Cooperative Framework Agreement on 14 May. The CFA rejects the 1929 and 1959 Nile Waters Agreements, which gave the lion’s share – 85% or 55.5 billion cubic metres per year – to Egypt, but it did not decide new allocations. This leaves room for manoeuvre and negotiation.

ZAMBIA

Copper-bottomed but leaky

Fuelled by rising world demand for copper and cobalt and by a bumper maize harvest, the economy is growing at a roaring 7.5%. Yet President Rupiah Banda, who will seek re-election next year, faces growing opposition both within the governing Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) and from opposition and civic groups. Part of the opposition seems to stem from nostalgia for his predecessor, the late Levy Mwanawasa, and part from suspicions about his relations with another ex-president, Frederick Chiluba, who has just won a judgment in Lusaka allowing him to keep assets which are widely seen as stolen.

ZAMBIA

Strong investment, weak prosperity

According to the latest figures from the Zambia Development Agency (ZDA), foreign direct investment totalled a record US$2.4 billion in the first half of 2010, up from $959 million in the same period in 2009. If the flow continues at that rate, it will exceed the government’s forecast of FDI of over $3 bn. for 2010. Mining still shows strong growth, buoyed by new investment and high copper prices. Agriculture will also see further growth this year, thanks largely to a bumper maize harvest.

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

A dubious election date, again

>Defying those who say the government is not politically or administratively ready, Prime Minister Guillaume Soro announced that elections for president and Parliament will be held on 31 October. President Laurent Gbagbo’s mandate expired in 2005 but he has stayed on, claiming that the country was not ready to vote, while the issues that precipitated civil war in 2002 remain unresolved (AC Vol 51 Nos 1 & 5).

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

Politicians waiting in the wings

Political activists of all tendencies are increasingly frustrated by the old guard of Laurent Gbagbo (65 years old), Henri Konan Bédié (76) and Alassane Dramane Ouattara (68). Calls for a new generation of leaders are getting louder.

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