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Vol 67 No 13

Published 26th June 2026


The Red Sea reckoning to come

The US-Iran MoU has not brought calm to the Horn – it has opened a new competition in the waters that matter most to the Gulf states and their African counterparts

The memorandum of understanding digitally signed by United States President Donald Trump and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on 18 June was welcomed in most world capitals as the end of a devastating conflict. It promised an immediate ceasefire, a 60-day negotiating window on Iran’s nuclear programme, US sanctions relief, and a US$300 billion reconstruction fund financed by private investment. But a day before the formal signing, Iran temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz in protest at Israeli operations in southern Lebanon – an early reminder of how brittle the arrangement is. Talks resumed in Switzerland on 22 June to produce another roadmap, with some progress on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on Lebanon.

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