With the near-annihilation of former president Laurent Gbagbo's Parti des peuples africains – Côte d'Ivoire (PPA-CI) during local by-elections in September last year (the party failed to gain a seat in Gbagbo's stronghold of Guémon and Gbagbo's son Michel lost his mayoral seat in the Abidjan suburb of Yopougon to the RHDP) the PPA-CI has lost almost all momentum...

Only Soro and former President Laurent Gbagbo are on record for their repeated support for the three military juntas but while Gbagbo is a spent force Soro has known credentials as an organiser of armed rebellions and is in possession of a network mostly in Burkina Faso...

The death in 2023 of one former rival Henri Konan Bédié and the uncertain electoral appeal and civil status of his other key counterpart Laurent Gbagbo might persuade him to hand over to a younger generation something he had said was necessary before the 2020 election before changing his mind and running again after the sudden death of his planned successor Amadou Gon Coulibaly...

Although regularly touted as a potential next generation national leader he signalled no interest in returning to a political arena still dominated by incumbent president Alassane Ouattara and his predecessor and rivals Laurent Gbagbo and Bédié...

No formal announcements have been made but it is almost certain that the men many call the 'three dinosaurs' (Ouattara Henri Konan Bédié and Laurent Gbagbo) will run yet again to the frustration of many...

And at Port Bouët beside Abidjan airport 900 French troops are based under a 2012 partnership agreement which came just after Paris helped President Alassane Ouattara's forces to victory over those of President Laurent Gbagbo in the unrest that followed the presidential election (AC Vol 52 No 18 Gbagbo: France's part in his downfall)...

The conditions for his return had been carefully negotiated as President Alassane Ouattara sought assurances from a man whose identity politics rhetoric used to mobilise southern youth behind then President Laurent Gbagbo at the height of the Ivorian national crisis (AC Vol 63 No 1 Après nous le déluge...

At this stage no one can rule out another contest pitting him against the other 'elephants' of Ivorian politics: former heads of state Henri Konan Bédié who will be 90 at the time of the next election and Laurent Gbagbo who will be 79 (AC Vol 63 No 1 Après nous le déluge...

This would allow Ouattara to close the door to any comeback for his two historic rivals Laurent Gbagbo and Henri Konan Bédié...

These three known as the 'elephants' are: Henri Konan Bédié who inherited the leadership of Houphouët-Boigny's Parti démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI) and succeeded him in power before being ousted in a 1999 coup; Laurent Gbagbo elected President in controversial 2000 polls following a short-lived period of junta rule; and current President Alassane Ouattara who came to power in 2011 following nine years of on-off civil war that saw the country split in two between north and south (AC Dispatches 23/7/21 The elephants talk reconciliation)...