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Kenyan and Sudanese officials are claiming victory in their battle against the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court

France and the United States are seriously considering the African Union (AU)'s requests to defer the International Criminal Court's prosecution of si...

AFRICAN UNION

Summitry in a time of revolution

EGYPT

Mubarak stumbles to the exit

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

Twice in the past month, African armies have announced that they will defend the right of civilian activists to take to the streets with their calls for democracy and for an end to corruption and nepotism. And twice it seems the soldiers - in Tunisia and in Egypt - are positioning themselves as catalysts in the downfall of tyrannies. It would be wrong to put much faith in the military's powers of social transformation: a succession of self-proclaimed corrective juntas have failed woefully to make the promised political or economic reforms. The combination of military-backed reform, new constitutions and political parties, new electoral commissions and then monitored elections can produce stability and coherence if the political activists stand firm enough. If they fail, a new generation of political soldiers takes over and entrenches a type of militarised rule with decorative elections. That danger now confronts Tunisia's and Egypt's democracy movements. Will the brave oppositionists who have confronted the old militarised dictatorship be able to work with the soldiers to establish a new political order or in the end will the military find the prospect of real change unpalatable? Both Tunisia and Egypt are on the brink of change in which the military can play a positive constitutional role, but both societies still run the risk of a rapid reversion to autocracy if that fragile trust between activist and soldier breaks down.  

EGYPT

The major opposition

New Wafd Party: nationalist and liberal with free-market values; founded in 1983, reviving the aristocratic and traditional Wafd, abolished after Gamal Abdel Nasser's 1952 'revolution'. It is considered a major opposition party in President Hosni Mubarak's controlled parliamentary system, though it won only five seats in 2005 and boycotted the run-off polls in 2010. The party has been accused of secret deals with the regime. Many of its key businessmen have depended on government largesse to stay in business.

NORTH AFRICA

Playing dominoes

For now, Algiers is what locals call 'normal', a condition in which roadblocks and tight security prevail, mixed with spiralling living costs, massive overcrowding and poor public services. Algerians may wish to redefine 'normal' after recent events in neighbouring Tunisia and their old rival, Egypt. Like their North African neighbours, a majority of Algerians are alienated from their government and angry about high prices and unemployment. So far, the hogra (contempt) that Algerians feel for their rulers has stopped short of revolution because they are still traumatised by the bloody conflict of the 1990s between the state and Islamists (AC Vol 40 No 24).

SUDAN

Through the looking glass

Salva Kiir Mayardit, President of Africa's newest state in July, was in demand at the 24-31 January African Union summit in Addis Ababa. In the AU conference centre, he was courted by contractors, diplomats and, of course, journalists. Now that the provisional results of last month's referendum show that 98.83% of voters have chosen secession for the South, everyone wants to know Salva's line on key issues such as oil money, borders and Abyei.

SUDAN

Militia attacks on the border

Brutal attacks last month by armed militias on convoys of Southern Sudanese returning from the North show the security crisis in the borderlands and the danger of war over Abyei (AC Vol 52 No 2). The attacks began in Southern Kordofan State, north of Abyei, on 7 January: polling in the South's week-long referendum began on 9 January. Abyei's supposedly simultaneous referendum has not happened.

ETHIOPIA

A five-year exit plan

From a position of strength - there is just one opposition member of parliament - the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front has been setting out its plans to rebuild itself and renew its leadership. If the EPRDF is to be believed (and plenty of people do not believe it), it will replace its leaders over the next five years. Meles Zenawi himself will retire in 2015, he says (AC Vol 51 No 18). A first big change is the retirement of Seyoum Mesfin after 19 years as Foreign Minister and his appointment as Ambassador to China, showing the importance Ethiopia attaches to that connection.

RWANDA

The political fallout

Yet another former government figure has set up a political movement in opposition to Rwandan President Paul Kagame. Faustin Twagiramungu, who was Prime Minister in the first post-genocide government in 1994, publicly launched the Rwanda Dream Initiative in Brussels on 27 January. He wants to make the RDI (Initiative du rêve rwandais/Umugambi Rwanda Rwiza) a broad opposition front. Twagiramungu is campaigning for democracy and political change and says his ambition is not to replace Kagame. He favours dialogue with the Rwanda National Congress, the opposition party launched in Maryland, United States, in December, and other groups, including the Green Party. He insists he is opposed to violence but Kigali links the RNC to militias in eastern Congo-Kinshasa (AC Vol 51 No 22).

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

Squeezing Gbagbo's budget

Europe is adding its own sanctions to the pressure on President Laurent Gbagbo from Africa's regional organisations to force him to stand down in the post-election stand off. At the same time, Gbagbo is stepping up pressure on Alassane Dramane Ouattara ('ADO'), his election rival whom the United Nations and African Union say won the second round of the presidential election on 28 November (AC Vol 51 No 25). On 14 January, the European Union froze the Gbagbo family's assets and those of 18 members of his team, and extended the visa ban imposed on 22 December on the same individuals and others who 'obstruct the process of peace and national reconciliation in Côte d'Ivoire'. About 90 people and eleven parastatal companies are now on the sanctions list.

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

Cocoa ban may hit Gbagbo's war chest

Around 40% of the world's cocoa is grown in Côte d'Ivoire and the market is in confusion as a result of the reigning political paralysis. The harvests, though, are large and speculation is more likely to affect prices in coming months than shortages or surpluses. Since 23 January, cocoa exports have largely stopped after the internationally acknowledged presidential election winner, Alassane Dramane Ouattara, demanded a month-long ban on exports. He did not call for an indefinite ban so as not to affect farmers too much and in the hope that the political impasse may be resolved by then. Six major exporters are respecting the ban and cocoa is piling up at the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro.

BLUE LINES

THE INSIDE VIEW

Twice in the past month, African armies have announced that they will defend the right of civilian activists to take to the streets with their calls for democracy and for an end to corruption and nepotism. And twice it seems the soldiers - in Tunisia and in Egypt - are positioning themselves as catalysts in the downfall of tyrannies. It would be wrong to put much faith in the military's powers of social transformation: a succession of self-proclaimed corrective juntas have failed woefully to ma...

BURUNDI

Bad omens

The clean sweep by President Pierre Nkurunziza and his Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie-Forces pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD) at the 2010 elections has failed to dispel fears that violence will increase further. The opposition claims there was massive fraud behind the ruling party’s triumph and since May, dozens of murders and over 100 grenade attacks have taken place (AC Vol 51 No 13).


Pointers  

TUNISIA | FRANCE

Ben Ali, biens mal acquis

The Paris Public Prosecutor's office is opening a preliminary investigation into funds and property held in France by Tunisian ex-President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, his family and entourage. Transparency International (TI) France and two other non-gove...

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