PREVIEW
Trial of detainees is due to open but investigators continue probe into the financing of the plot
At least 16 military officers are to face trial accused of plotting to overthrow President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as security concerns are becoming a critical issue in next year’s national elections. Local media report the net has been extended to over 40 suspects, including a retired Major General and former state governor in the Niger Delta.
A leading opposition politicians told Africa Confidential that the plot, which revolved around assassinating Tinubu reflected discontent about conditions, promotions and payments for the military rather than a wider political agenda. Some state officials in Abuja appear to agree, arguing that Nigeria has gone beyond military coups.
The officers were arrested and detained last year following reports, dismissed at the time by Tinubu’s government, of an attempted coup during Independence Day celebrations on 1 October last year (AC Vol 66 No 21, Coup plot or not). At the time, the military stated that the arrests were related to ‘acts of indiscipline and breaches of service regulations.’
Colonel Alhassan Ma'aji has been named as the ringleader in an investigation, led by Chief of Defence Intelligence, Emmanuel Undiandeye, released last week. The probe concluded that the officers had initially planned to strike during Tinubu’s inauguration as president in May 2023. The ringleaders were disgruntled at having been passed over for promotion, the investigation said.
The government investigation concluded that a coup had been thwarted, stating that trying to unseat the elected government was ‘inconsistent with the ethics, values and professional standards’ of the military. Since independence in 1960, military officers have mounted five successful coups d’etat in Nigeria; two of the leaders of ensuing military regimes – General Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari – were subsequently elected as civilian presidents.
‘The threat posed was clear and immediate,’ the interim report concluded, warning that a failure to act risked ‘grave implications for national stability.’ Unease is growing among Tinubu’s top team at the scale of military unhappiness and the failure by officers and ministers to get a grip on insecurity in Nigeria’s northern states and middle belt. Over 10,000 civilians are estimated to have been killed in Nigeria in attacks by jihadist and organised crime cartels over the past year, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), the conflict tracking experts.
A move in late 2024 to promote senior officers from his home region, the south-west, was partially unpicked in December when Defence Minister, Mohammed Badaru, was forced to resign and was replaced by General Sani Musa, who had been sacked as Chief of Defence Staff only weeks earlier (AC Vol 65 No 24, Tinubu looks to his military home boys & Vol 66 No 24, Deepening security crisis threatens Tinubu’s re-election plans).
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