PREVIEW
Turnout will be the critical variable with signs that the Obi-Kwankwaso presidential ticket is cutting through
After months in which President Bola Tinubu’s strategists seemed to have neutralised his rivals by exploiting divisions in the main opposition camps, a couple of new opinion polls have upset their assumptions of an easy victory in January’s presidential elections. The opinion polls point to rising dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration. Most of the respondents complained about the country’s direction and, in particular, worsening economic conditions.
A survey by Harmattan Intelligence released on 30 June, which sampled 1,000 registered voters, found that 75% of respondents strongly disapproved of President Tinubu’s performance, with 70% reporting that their personal economic circumstances were much worse than when Tinubu took office in mid-2023. The cost of living and security were cited as the most important issues.
The poll found that a proposed joint ticket of Peter Obi, the Labour presidential candidate in 2023, and Rabiu Kwankwaso would have the highest favourability rating with 55% of respondents expressing a very favourable view and 25% indicating a somewhat favourable opinion.
Just 40% had a somewhat favourable view of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, a former leader of the People’s Democratic Party who is now set to run for the African Democratic Congress.
And a survey by SBM reported that nearly 80% of Nigerians say the country is headed in the wrong direction and that Peter Obi had the highest favourability ratings. But any challenge to Tinubu will depend on a major increase in voter turnout which slumped below 27% in the presidential election in February 2023. In that election, Atiku won 6.9 million votes, Obi won 6.1m and Kwankwaso won 1.5m – a combined opposition showing of 14.5m easily surpassing Tinubu’s 8.7m votes. That explains why Tinubu’s strategists have worked so assiduously to divide the opposition candidates this time.
65% of respondents to the Harmattan Intelligence survey said that they were certain to vote. But political insiders in Abuja remained sceptical about their conclusions, not least because they assume the Independent National Electoral Commission would be a neutral referee next year despite recent evidence to the contrary.
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